All Hail Youkilis

Kevin Youkilis has been quite a story this year. Hitting .338/.431/.486 through the end of the first game of yesterday’s doubleheader, Youkilis has really started becoming a major player for the Red Sox. Earlier this year, I wondered if a comparison of Youkilis to Edgar Martinez was warranted. Here’s a table comparing Youkilis and Papi (Edgar Martinez’s nickname):

Youkilis’ 2007 (age 28) statistics do not include the game he had last night, but does yesterday afternoon. In the first game of the twinbill, he went 2/4 with a RBI. In the nightcap, he came up his first at-bat and singled in a run to extend his hitting streak to 11 games.

Whether or not Youkilis ends up matching Martinez’s best season (.356/.479/.628 at age 32 in 1995 – which puts Youkilis’ huge season at 2011) is irrelevant.

What matters is that every year, Youkilis just seems to make himself more and more valuable to the Red Sox. The fact that he has developed himself into a Gold Glove caliber first baseman for the Red Sox despite being moved over from third (and amid still-resonating chatter that he will eventually move back) is nothing short of amazing. In the American League, Youkilis is tied for first in fielding percentage with 1.000 (in other words: zero errors). He’s fifth in Range Factor with 9.60, behind Lyle Overbay, Richie Sexson, Doug Mientkiewicz and Sean Casey. In Zone Rating, he ranks second with an .895 rating, just behind Paul Konerko.

PECOTA’s projection has Youkilis hitting .271/.376/.456. His average (.338) is currently at the point where it’s not even on the charts, as the 90th percentile points him to a .297 AVG. His current OBP, .431, is also off the charts. His slugging, .486, is between the 60th (.469) and 75th (.494) percentile. The 90th percentile has him at a .514 slugging percentage, which he could get to if the balls start flying out more as the weather gets warmer.

His April was very Youkilis-like, as he checked in at .291/.402/.407, but he’s gone crazy in May. Not including the two games last night, he’s at .404/.475/.615! Can he keep it up? Probably not, but I think the numbers he’s at right now could end up being sustainable except for a downtick in average.

Some interesting statistics on Youkilis, not including the statistics from the doubleheader last night:

He’s hitting lefties to the tune of a .950 OPS, righties .900. His away OPS is .861, home is .961, and he’s developing a reputation as a clutch hitter.

Bases empty: .304/.421/.443.

Runners on: .373/.441/.542.

Runners In Scoring Position (RISP): .400/.488/.543

RISP with two out: .400/.526/.400

Bases Loaded (the only blemish): .250/.400/.250 in 8 AB.

Last night, he had a ninth shot at the bases loaded, and flied out to very deep right to end the threat.

Youkilis has been an important cog in the Red Sox’s hot start to begin the year. It’s important that he keep it up, because a lot of other people are struggling: Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo… he’s helped the Red Sox so much by being ranked fifth in batting average (this is all before the doubleheader, again), fifth in OBP, and sixth in runs.

What I’m most concerned about with Youkilis, however, is the fact that he’s not a complete hitter. He has holes, and you can beat him – you just have to make sure to throw a strike. Youkilis is hitting .305 on the year on fastballs, .203 on curves, .277 on sliders and .212 on change ups. Bring the breaking stuff to Youkilis is what the book says – and bring it inside. He’s the most prone (27 percent) at swinging at middle-in balls, and in the inner half of the plate, is not good as well. He hits .250 in and up in the strike zone, .269 middle-in strike zone, and .238 down and in in the strike zone. Those are not his major weaknesses, though. Pound him low and away (.203) or high and away (.246). If you can pinpoint your control, he hits only .260 on upper middle balls.

Now, the good news: he hits .324 on middle away, .419 down the chute, and .330 middle down. That means if you toss a pitch to the outer half of the plate and hang it in the middle, he’s hitting it. If you send it in the middle, he’s hitting it. But if you bust him inside or hit your spots on the outer corner with breaking balls … you can get him out.

But he’s hitting .338. I’m not complaining.

When I see Kevin Youkilis walk to the plate, I know there is a good at-bat coming up. A quality one. It’s not the same feeling I get when, say, Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, or Doug Mirabelli walk to the plate. When they come up, I pray. When Youkilis comes up … I don’t need to pray, because Youkilis is that good.

Kevin Youkilis is definitely one of the team’s MVPs to date, and I’m glad we have him.

The results of the previous poll:

Are you worried about Josh Beckett’s injury?

* No, it’s just a torn skin flap.

39% of all votes

* A little bit, given his history.

39% of all votes

* Yes, I hope it’s nothing major, but it’s very concerning.

19% of all votes

* Par for the course, we knew we were getting an injury-prone pitcher.

2% of all votes (I bet Sean O voted here.)

I voted for the second option. Today, he got placed on the disabled list. Devern Hansack is expected to get the start Friday and then be sent down for Kason Gabbard, starting Sunday. A crafty lefty (Gabbard) starting against an NL East teams (muses on Tom Glavine, Jamie Moyer, Mike Hamption [although hurt]) … yeah, good history of success. I’m predicting two from the Braves, and then it’s Yankees time. After that duel, Beckett returns!

New poll on the right!