All Quiet on the Roenicke Front

The situation remains quiet regarding the Brewers front office’s decision on the future of manager Ron Roenicke and the rest of the coaching staff. This lull in offseason decision making is a dead zone when it comes to public information, but undoubtedly it gives Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and GM Doug Melvin time to meet with Roenicke and decide how to pursue improvement over the winter. As the team has stated, it also allows time to cool off and assess things with a more objective viewpoint.

Clearly, however, something must give. Roenicke is 335-313 over four seasons at the helm. But other than his inaugural, magical 96-win 2011 season, Roenicke’s teams have finished with extremely mediocre records of 83-79, 74-88 and 82-80, respectively. Fittingly, the heroic 2011 campaign ended with another important series loss to the Cardinals, this time in the postseason, and ultimately a Cardinals World Series victory.

The Brewers have won 14 playoff games in their 40-year-plus history. The Cardinals, who are in yet another NLCS this season, have won 18 playoff games since the start of the 2012 season. Not that the Brewers should ever really compare themselves to the Cardinals, because the result is not flattering, but the Brewers need to get something done before the decade is up. That gives them the 2015-19 seasons as I see it. Four years, gentlemen. Whether the Narron brothers are around, whether it’s Roenicke and Melvin or someone else, the Brewers’ clock is ticking. I’m not saying they have to become a consistent franchise. They just have to win it all. Just once.

Despite outlandish fan support that many teams around the league would welcome as their standard, the Brewers remain, as its Baseball Almanac page bleakly describes: a “franchise having trouble competing on the major league level.” At first I was taken aback by the anonymous writer’s analysis of the Brewers over the years, but I can’t really disagree too much. Except perhaps on the notion that the Brewers are cash-strapped, which no longer appears to be the case. Frankly, Brewers fans should expect to see Attanasio spend more money, particularly when the team has a core capable of significant improvement with the right additions. The only justification for a substantially lower payroll in Milwaukee would be the slow dissolution of the core team as it now stands, followed by a lack of minor league reinforcements.

And so, the question of Roenicke. Shall we change our horse midstream, as it were? Or have we already forded the river? It’s an old question. Regardless of the final effect of a major league manager, new relationships would have to take hold should a new manager be installed. There would be a transition period that may be rocky and uncomfortable. The chance exists that it could backfire on the Brewers and they could regress. The players may not have as much of a sympathetic pal in the new manager as they have in ol’ Ron.

But truly, they’ve already regressed. Under Roenicke’s leadership, if you throw out 2011 (when the team was obviously primed for something big in Roenicke’s first year) the Brewers have essentially been the 2005-07 Ned Yost Brewers: Talented, but ultimately aimless and unable to get over the hump. I am not convinced in the slightest that Roenicke can turn things around, nor will the dismissal of any of his coaches inspire confidence. If they bring in a healthy Prince Fielder-caliber hitter and a Zack Greinke-caliber pitcher in the offseason AND bring back Roenicke? OK, maybe that would do the trick.

I’m undecided about what the Brewers should do with Ron Roenicke. Several other teams are looking for managers, including the Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers. However, many talented men are out there waiting for a chance to manage, including former Brewer Paul Molitor, who looks to be the favorite in Minneapolis. If you look at Mike Matheny of the Cardinals, he had never managed before becoming the guy in St. Louis, and the Cardinals have continued to win. Whether the Cardinals have a deal with the Devil or not is unclear, but this year’s Cardinals team is not that good. I won’t give them any credit thus far. The Dodgers simply imploded. Too bad, because had Roenicke found a way to avert whatever happened to the Brewers this year, it would have been a true chance to do something in the playoffs in 2014. The postseason landscape has proven to be fertile for upsets.

Currently, my guess is the Brewers will do something to make a superficial change and continue on per usual. Roenicke will be back, but they’ll fire a coach or two. Nothing much will change. They will sign a mediocre first baseman and finish in fourth place next season. Sigh. It’s too bad, because they have a lot of exciting players and a lot of fans ready to go nuts for this team. But they need a few more good players and a real leader both on the roster and in the dugout running the show. They need a manager who can inspire broad confidence in the team and its prospects, and confidence in the fans, not just a guy who can get along with the players. I think the current guy may be willing, but I’m not sure he’s capable.