An Analysis of Trade Results from the Shapiro/Antonetti Era

Today is the non-waiver trade deadline and while the Indians may or may not continue to be active, we won’t know the real results of those deals until well in the future. Instead, it is a great time to look into the past and see how the current administration has rated in their previous dealings.

As a primer for this piece, the only trades considered were those involving at least one Major League player that occurred between October and April (considered Off-Season) or June and July (considered Deadline). Trades involving players of no consequence have also been excluded even if the players involved got their cup of coffee in the Majors at some point. Finally, stats for players involved are from that players entire duration with their new team. This is because injury risk, sign-ability and trade value are all brought into the equation when adding a new player.

The chart below shows the overall results of Indians trades from 2001 through 2014, when Mark Shapiro took over as GM (Chris Antonetti took over in 2010), broken down into different categories:

The first thing we can dispel is the myth that better trades are to be had in the off-season. This statement has been uttered much of late, but has certainly not been true for the Indians over the past 15 years. Even in trades where he has added a veteran, the return has been better when done mid-season. The fact that selling trades have also been more valuable mid-season makes sense as contending teams are often very desperate for even a small piece.

Breaking down the above chart further, there were five trades that individually netted at least 10 WAR to one team or the other. The worst made by the Indians was Brandon Phillips to Cincinnati for Jeff Stevens where Stevens never played for the Indians, but Phillips earned 27.8 WAR for the Reds. Even if you don’t consider his extension, this was a considerable loss.

Each of the rest were wins for the Tribe and all by at least 20 WAR. Like the Phillips deal, Travis Hafner (25 WAR) and Aaron Myette (-0.2) for Ryan Drese (4) and Einar Diaz (.2) occurred in the off-season, but the major wins have all been in season deals, sending veterans to other teams for prospects. Not only that, but two of these happened with the same team in the same season with Eduardo Perez (-0.9) going to Seattle for Asdrubal Cabrera (20.6) and Ben Broussard (-0.7) being traded for Shin-Soo Choo (21.7).

Of course the biggest steal of all was initial acquisition of Phillips (-0.4), along with Grady Sizemore (27.5), Cliff Lee (16.2) and Lee Stevens for (0.3) for Bartolo Colon (2.4) and Tim Drew (-0.5). I discussed this trade in more detail earlier this season, but no matter how you look at it, it was essentially the biggest steal in Indians history, one of the biggest in baseball history.

Even removing those three trades from the ledger (which is unfair as those should only count to Shapiro’s credit), there are very few failures in mid-season trades and those weren’t extreme. The worst were Rafael Betancourt (6.5) to Colorado for Connor Graham (who was out of the Indians minor league system after less than two years, never above AA) and Jhonny Peralta (9.1) to Detroit for Giovanni Soto, who is yet to make his Major League debut, although he is currently in AAA.

One aspect the Indians have gotten flack for is a poor record when attempting to contend by buying MLB veterans, but even here while in season, they have done a solid job. If there is any complaint, it is that there have only been four since Shapiro took over in 2001. Of those, the trade for Ubaldo Jimenez (1.8) was essentially free as the four minor leaguers traded for him netted zero WAR for the Rockies as was the case in the trades for Kosuke Fukudome and Marc Rzepczysnki.

The veterans brought in during the off-season were a lower standard and the Indians were not as successful here. Derek Lowe, Scott Stewart and Josh Barfield were huge busts, but even here, the cost wasn’t too high. Largely because they have been so conservative, the Indians have never missed out on a huge prospect because of a trade outside of Phillips. This is also because they haven’t had many top level prospects since 2001, but that’s another side of team building altogether.

Giving both Shapiro (35 trades for a net total of 95.6 WAR, 2.7 average per trade) and Antonetti (17 trades for a net total of 10.1 WAR, 0.59 average) their due, it makes sense that selling trades would ultimately lead to a higher WAR by the receiving team. Even in cases where it is a bonafide superstar leaving, like with Sabathia in 2008 and Lee in 2009, the receiving team gets only a few months (or a year and a few months), while the selling team gets many years of multiple prospects. In addition by gaining multiple prospects, the selling team diversifies their risk, giving them a good chance of at least one player hitting. For Sabathia, this player was Michael Brantley and for Lee it was Carlos Carrasco, both of whom were obtained by Shapiro and are still with the system, long after the veterans have moved on and will be around for a long time in the future.

Antonetti’s deals don’t have as much of an upside yet, as many prospects are still within the system, but he deserves major credit for a couple made his first season. Of his five deadline deals in his first season, 2010, two hit and are still providing dividends. Corey Kluber was obtained in a three team deal from San Diego in exchange for Jake Westbrook and Zach McAllister came from the Yankees in return for half a season of Austin Kearns.

Two more recent deals were just as big as he netted Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles for Esmil Rogers in 2012 and Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw and Drew Stubbs for Shin-Soo Choo, Tony Sipp, Jason Donald and Lars Anderson. Of those lost, only Choo made a positive impression on his new team while all the Indians returns have earned a positive WAR with Shaw and Bauer continuing to do so.

Taking all that in, the Indians front office has been fantastic in making trades, particularly those made during the regular season around the trade deadline. While the Indians have not been playing as well as expected this season, this is one aspect of the team construction that has never failed and the one that the General Manager has the most control over. Consider this next time before calling for the heads of the front office, a group that has been extremely successful over the past 15 seasons.