An Analytical Shift

An Analytical Shift
Hinkie


Ryan McDonough and Sam Hinkie are the NBA’s newest general managers, and both are taking an analytical approach to turning their respective franchises around.

The Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers spent last season making moves they believed would potentially get them to the playoffs. The Suns, beginning a new era with the departure of Steve Nash, acquired Goran Dragic, Michael Beasley, and Luis Scola as pieces to shape out their starting lineup. While Dragic would prove a capable point guard and Scola a serviceable forward, Beasley, brought in to be the team’s primary scorer, would have a disaster of a season, averaging career lows in points, field goal percentage, and rebounds.

Meanwhile, the 76ers traded one time centerpiece Andre Iguodala to Denver in a three-team trade that brought Andrew Bynum to the Philadelphia. Bynum, considered one of the best centers in the league when healthy, came to the team with knee injuries, and where at first it appeared he would only miss part of the season, multiple setbacks would keep Bynum out the entire season.

Both teams suffered on the court, posting their worst records in years, resulting in the firings their general managers. After weeks of searching, both teams found their new GMs in Ryan McDonough for the Suns and Sam Hinkie for the 76ers. Both men look to rebuild their respective franchises, taking a similar, analytical approach.

An Analytical Shift
McDonough

McDonough, only 33, leaves his post and hometown roots as Boston’s assistant GM for what he calls a “spectacular opportunity” in Phoenix. Stressing the need for improving the talent on the roster, McDonough views the draft as essential to a team’s success, while stressing the need for a front office with talent evaluators rather than specialists. Most intriguing is McDonough’s focus on analytics. Paul Coro of USA Today writes that, “McDonough showed how he embraces analytics by talking about his appreciation for players’ adjusted plus-minus ratings, the value of corner 3-pointers and two-for-one possessions, pushing tempo for early offense and turning turnovers into points.”

Even more intriguing, McDonough stressed that a steady build will help ensure long term success, he would not rule out spending big on star players if the opportunity arose.

Sam Hinkie was involved in such an opportunity only last offseason. As assistant GM for the Houston Rockets, Hinkie, 35, helped the Rockets acquire James Harden from the Thunder. That trade, as well signing Omar Asik, aided in the Rockets winning 45 games and reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2009. The 76ers recognized Hinkie’s expertise, and hired him as their new general manager in mid-May. Like McDonough, Hinkie believes in an analytical approach as well, but stresses this approach isn’t as different as some may think, suggesting, “When we talk about analytics we’re not talking about going into a back room with a bunch of computers” but rather putting in place a strong front office that can accurately judge talent. He also emphasizes the draft, highlighting that its uses extend beyond that of hoping to draft a superstar. As Derek Bodner writes at SB Nation’s Liberty Ballers, Hinkie’s focus in Houston, “wasn’t just to draft a superstar…but also to accumulate assets which can be used in a trade to acquire a superstar.” Acquiring assets helped secure the Harden deal, and given the right circumstances the same could occur in Philadelphia.

Addressing a team rebuild through analytics shows a shift in league operations. This approach isn’t as drastically different as skeptics may argue, but rather represents a more careful approach to team building. Acquiring assets, whether picks and role players, isn’t new practice, but for teams like Phoenix and Philadelphia it is a safer, albeit slower, way of rebuilding. Given time, along with some good fortune, and in a few years both teams could be viewed as success stories.

Both men have tall orders in front of them. Hiring new head coaches will be high on the priority list, and both will have decisions to make regarding if players like Beasley or Bynum should be retained. It is likely neither team will make the playoffs next season, but the decisions each team makes in regards to draft picks and free agents signings will signal the intended path of each general manager.

By Nick Denning

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