For all the insults that are thrown at the current management team of Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro by the Indians fan base, they have actually done an incredible job considering the current monetary situation with the team and around the league. The great long term signings of Yan Gomes, Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis in the past off-season in addition to the original trade to grab Gomes from the Blue Jays are just a few of Antonetti’s recent successes. While these were a few shrewd moves that actually were, possibly the best moves last off-season were two that were not made.
Prior to the start of the 2014 season, the Indians knew both Justin Masterson and Asdrubal Cabrera would be free agents at the end of the year and that they would likely have to sign them during the Spring, trade them during the season, give them a qualifying offer at the end of the year or gain nothing from losing them. While the decision about Cabrera was made easier by the existence of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor in the Tribe’s minor league system, there was strong reasoning to sign Masterson based solely on a questionable rotation going into the year.
In Masterson’s case, he actually brought a contract idea to the Indians and did so at what seemed to be a discount slightly under his value as a free agent. At the time, we discussed how, based on market value, Masterson could be leaving as much as $60M on the table by signing for just three of four seasons instead of the six years that similar pitcher Homer Bailey received just weeks earlier. When discussing whether a pitcher will get a deal of $15M per season or $20M per season, it seems obvious that the Indians would have made the $15.3M qualifying offer had Masterson stuck around without making the long term deal, but then reality happened.
Everyone knows the story at this point, so the recap can be quick. After a career year in 2013 with a 3.45 ERA as the Indians ace, he started the season with a 5.51 ERA in 2014 before hitting the DL with an injured knee in early July. While it is impossible to tell how much of this disappointment was because of the injury (although he played significantly worse than normal after the news was made public), it very quickly became too much of a risk for the Indians to offer the $15.3M necessary to steal a first round pick in the 2015 amateur draft. After being traded to St. Louis in exchange to top outfield prospect James Ramsey, Masterson was even worse, eventually being pushed into the bullpen, then off the play-off roster. By making this shrewd deal right before the deadline, Antonetti secured something of greater value than a late first round pick, a close to MLB ready AAA outfielder. Not surprisingly, the Cardinals did not make a qualifying offer to Masterson and he is now a free agent, meaning that Ramsey was essentially free, or even better than free as the Indians didn’t have to have Masterson on the 25 man roster for the final months of the season.
Asdrubal Cabrera had an almost totally polar situation as he came into the season with little value, but gained it through the year. As with Masterson, the Indians knew they were not going to give him a qualifying offer by July and moved him along to Washington. Instead of hurting the Nationals, however, Cabrera was an aide as he flipped from short to second to decrease the negative impact of his defense. As could be expected, just as Cabrera helped the Nationals more than Masterson helped the Cardinals, the AAA outfielder received from the Nationals helped the Indians more than Ramsey. Zach Walters was the top power hitter in the Washington organization and he showed that power in his short time in Cleveland. For the second time, Antonetti turned a player who was no longer of worth to the Indians and would be gone in a few months into a valuable asset.
Like Masterson, the Nationals did not offer Cabrera the qualifying amount, although this was a little more surprising. Cabrera remains one of the top offensive short stops in baseball, hitting 14 home runs and knocking in 61 in 2014, numbers that compare favorably to Hanley Ramirez (13 home runs, 71 RBI), another free agent short stop who actually was offered a qualifying offer. While this doesn’t mean that the Nationals won’t still resign him, they will not get a draft pick in return if they do not.
Whether the Indians management team got lucky or actually predicted correctly the situation months in advance, Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro have navigated a difficult situation perfectly. Had the Indians signed Masterson for four seasons, they could have wound up with the world’s most expensive mop up man. If they had given either player a qualifying offer, they likely would have become the first free agents to accept the “meager” offering and the Indians would be adding two very average players for more money than Nick Swisher gets paid for being an average player. Avoiding all this commitment, the Indians were able to grab two top outfield prospects and save millions at the same time. Yet again, a more aggressive General Manager would owe tons of money to the two players while a patient one would have received nothing in return. Antonetti, instead, has used his ingenuity to take a poor situation and make the most of it. When both Masterson and Cabrera sign for considerably less than $15M per year this off-season, Indians fans should remember what Chris Antonetti has done for the Tribe.
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