Prospects are a tricky business. Predictions are tricky busniness. Predicting the future for prospects is very tricky business. Sometimes, tools don’t matter, makeup and intelligence does. The “grit” factor if you will. Sometimes the tools are so loud that it doesn’t matter what the makeup is. The only two slam dunk major leaguers I’ve ever scouted were Mike Trout and Garrett Richards. There were plenty of good players I watched that became major leaguers (Jean Segura, Will Smith, Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Hank Conger etc…) but none were able to make me say with absolute certainty that player would be a good major leaguer. The success rate as is would lead anyone evaluator to change professions immediately. Don’t believe me? Just look at our top 30 Angels prospects from three years ago.
30. C Carlos Ramirez – Retired.
29. RHP Reid Scoggins – Retired.
28 LHP Michael Roth – Triple-A starting pitcher with the Indians.
27. RHP Cam Bedrosian – Triple-A reliever with the Angels.
26. LHP Andrew Taylor – Retired.
25. LHP Brandon Sisk – Rookie Ball reliever with the Nationals.
24. RHP Michael Clevinger – Double-A starting pitcher with the Indians.
23. RHP Mark Sappington – Double-A reliever with the Rays.
22. 1B Wade Hinkle – Double-A 1B with the Angels
21. C Zach Wright – Double-A C with the Angels.
20. RHP Steve Geltz – Setup man for the Tampa Bay Rays.
19. RHP Arjenis Fernandez – A-Ball starter for the Angels.
18. RHP Austin Adams – A+ Ball reliever for the Angels
17. LHP Eswarlin Jimenez – Released/retired.
16. RHP Austin Wood – Double-A reliever for the Angels.
15. RHP Ryan Chaffee – Triple-A reliever with the Dodgers.
14. OF Travis Witherspoon – Double-A OF with the Dodgers.
13. SS Jose Rondon – A+/AA SS with the Padres.
12. RHP A.J. Schugel – Long relief for the Arizona D-Backs & Triple-A starter.
11. SS Eric Stamets – Double-A SS with the Angels.
10. RHP Daniel Tillman – A+ Ball RP with the Dodgers.
9. 2B Alex Yarbrough – Triple-A 2B for the Angels.
8. R.J. Alvarez – Setup man for the Oakland A’s.
7. 3B Luis Jimenez – Backup 3B for the Milwaukee Brewers
6. OF Randal Grichuk – Platoon OF for the St. Louis Cardinals
5. OF Kole Calhoun – Starting RF for the Los Angeles Angels
4. 2B Taylor Lindsey – Triple-A 2B with the Padres.
3. 1B C.J. Cron – Starting DH for the Los Angeles Angels
2. LHP Nick Maronde – Triple-A starter with the Indians
1. 3B Kaleb Cowart – A+ Ball 3B with the Angels.
Statistics
Number of prominent players on the Angels: 2
Number of prominent players with another MLB club: 4
Number of Players still in Angels organization: 11
Number of retired players: 4
Prospects without any significant growth or progression: 14
Nuber of Prospects traded for in a package for MLB player: 8
Number of players with considerable growth but not in MLB yet: 5
Number of prospects that have made at least one MLB appearance: 11
Ratio of Top 10 prospects in AAA or MLB: 8/10
Those numbers are staggering. Half the list ended up stalling in their development, and just as many ended up retiring without ever making the majors as those that ended up being prominent MLB players. Only five prospects have progressed into the middle or upper minors and are well on their way to being major leaguers. Only one-third of the Top 30 prospects are even still with the Angels.
In a much more positive outlook, more than one-third of our Top 30 prospects from three years ago have made an appearance in the majors. Roughly a quarter of these players were dealt in what resulted in the Angels receiving an MLB veteran. Also, 80% of our Top 10 prospects from three years ago are either in the majors or are at the doorstep.
This shows that even in a weak year, roughly one-third of an organization’s Top 30 prospects will eventually get a cup of coffee. Not bad! But it also shows that only one in five will ever end up making it to the majors and staying there.
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