Andrelton Simmons is probably going to be treated unfairly by this blogger in the coming years. It’s not his fault really, it’s Billy Eppler’s. And I am going to be even more unfair if Sean Newcomb pans out and becomes a frontline starting pitcher. But, here the Angels are, going into 2016 with an even shadier farm system then they had in 2015. But they will also be sporting an upgraded defense with hands down the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball, and quite possibly the best defensive player period in all of baseball.
Position: SS | Age (2016): 26
Bats: R | Throws: R
Height: 6’2″ | Weight: 195
2015 WAR: 4.0
2015 in a Tweet
The Angels dealt their best prospect for Ozzie Smith reincarnated. Too bad Simmons came with Ozzie’s bat as well.
2016 Projections
[table id=166 /]As the estimable Jeff Mays pointed out the other day, the Angels were second in the AL West in 2015 in Total Zone Runs Above Average. Their 25 runs above average trailed only the Texas Rangers’ 29. And that defense was one of the key reasons why the Rangers were able to capture the AL West flag. Well, that and a tanking Astros team as well as an Angels team that forgot how to play baseball in August.
Of course, the 2015 Rtz numbers aren’t available yet, but let’s do a comparison of the 2014 numbers that both Simmons and Erick Aybar put up. In 2014, Simmons was worth 13 runs above average. Pretty good. He was at 30 in 2013, and that just so happens to be the fifth best season ever by total zone runs above average. That’s a good thing to remember. Erick Aybar, on the other hand, was worth -10 runs above average in 2014, and -12 in 2013. That’s…that’s a big swing, folks. It has been said many times already in Simmons young career, but it really does bare repeating. Andrelton Simmons is not just a good defender, he is an incredibly good, OHMYGODDIDYOUSEEWHATHEJUSTDID, defender. But defense was never in question when it came to Simmons, it was always whether or not he would hit enough to justify his spot in the lineup.
Luckily for Simmons, he is still worth positive value even when he doesn’t hit. He’s racked up 11.8 fWAR in three and a half seasons with the Braves. And that includes a 4.5-win season in 2013 when he had a wRC+ of 91, a 2.0-win season in 2014 when he had a wRC+ of 72 and a 3.2-win season last year when he had a wRC+ of 82. And the WAR projections for him this year aren’t scary, with ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA projecting a season between 3.3 and 3.7 wins for 2016 with wRC+ numbers of 89 and 86 for Steamer and ZiPS, respectively. Both of which are marked improvements over Aybar who was worth 1.0 fWAR last season while posting a wRC+ of 80, and neither Steamer or ZiPS are expecting Aybar to break the 2.0-win threshold in 2016. Andrelton Simmons will be worth what he is paying paid for the Angels, my only hang up will be is he worth what the Angels gave up to get him. But we won’t know that answer for a couple of seasons.
Spray Chart
Simmons is weird in that, he’s not a light-hitting, slap happy shortstop. But he’s also not a power hitter (don’t let his 17 home runs in 2013 fool you, that was an anomaly). A majority of his contact goes up the middle (42.2%), and majority of his hits are of the medium contact variety (56.3%). He also sports a career contact rate of 87.9%. Simmons likes to swing the bat. He won’t walk much, nor will he strike out a ton, it’s just a matter of all of those batted balls finding more holes in the defense. Which, now that I think about it, sounds like karma coming back on Simmons. Eh, seems like a fair trade.
Zone Profile
How do pitchers tend to pitch to Andrelton Simmons? The same way that pitchers tend to pitch to everyone. Keep the ball down, and keep the ball away. What kind of pitches can Andrelton hit? Damn near everything. Pitches that are down and in or up and away seem to be the most troubling for him, but that’s only when he is chasing those pitches that are outside of the zone. Other than that, if the ball is thrown in the general direction of home plate, there is a good chance that Simmons will get wood on it.
Fun Fact
Andrelton Simmons claimed recently that he thinks that he can get better defensively. Which, of course, is preposterous. That would be like me claiming that I can get even better at eating pizza. Eventually, you get to a point where you have to honestly say to yourself, this is the peak of this mountain, and, you know what, I’m going to enjoy the view.
What to Watch For
Watch for any baseball that is hit in Simmons general direction, because they usually don’t make it into the outfield when they go that way And, if they do, we should all rise, declare the hitter a witch, and burn them at the stake.
A Bold Prediction
What’s a bold prediction for a player like this? A slugging percentage of .340? I predict that Simmons’ presence will negate the shortcomings of Yunel Escobar, possibly stabilize Johnny Giavotella, and turn the Angels infield into a place where ground balls go to die. And, to be honest, he’s that good of a defender for it to happen.
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