In a lot of seasons, Andrew Heaney’s 2015 would have been a legitimate contender for AL Rookie of the Year. He amassed 1.6 fWAR in 18 starts, just 0.5 fWAR less than Matt Shoemaker finished with (in 30 more innings) as the runner-up in RoY balloting one season earlier. Unfortunately for Heaney, his rookie campaign coincided with a historic crop of elite young talent across baseball, and in the loaded AL he didn’t receive any votes. Such is life when your rookie season takes places the same year as Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Miguel Sano.
Even if Heaney isn’t a future star the way the other rookies in that class likely are, his 2015 performance is exactly what Jerry Dipoto had in mind when he traded away Howie Kendrick for Heaney’s services last offseason. Heaney doesn’t project as an ace, but the former top prospect delivered on the “solid number-three or a possible number-two” promise that many scouts pegged him as. Extrapolated to a full season, Heaney delivered approximately three wins above replacement and 200 innings. Lesser pitchers than that cash in on the open market.
It was a brilliant trade from Dipoto, probably his best in his all-too-brief term as Angels’ general manager. Trading away a declining second baseman with one year of team control for a rotation rock with six years of team control that’ll earn peanuts before he hits arbitration in three years? That’s a no-brainer, a trade I’m sure the Dodgers wish they could take back given their dearth of healthy, reliable arms after Clayton Kershaw. Heaney already made Dipoto look smart once, but can he do it again? On a roster stocked with few players with actual upside, Heaney is one of the few that can actually take a step forward as he approaches his prime.
Position: SP | Age (2016): 25
Bats: L | Throws: L
Height: 6’2” | Weight: 185
2015 WAR: 1.7
2015 in a Tweet
Heaney quickly became a fan favorite after his June call-up: in his first six starts he pitched at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs.
2016 Projections
[table id=172 /]All three systems are bearish on Heaney’s total 2016 value; PECOTA and Steamer in particular don’t see a large workload for Heaney. And thus is the problem with projection systems for a player who was called up in the middle of the season the year prior. They don’t project Heaney for a full season because, well, that hasn’t happened yet.
But if we knock on wood and assume Heaney starts 34 games, ZiPS thinks he is nearly a 3-win pitcher. PECOTA and Steamer are haterz. It would be nice if Heaney strikeouts did tick above seven per nine, as each system suggests will happen.
*PECOTA uses DRA in lieu of FIP
Pitch Usage
Not much past data to go on. Heaney will use his sinker/fastball (whatever you want to call it) two-thirds of the time and rely on his other two offerings to retire the batter—the changeup against right-handed hitters and the curveball primarily against left-handed hitters. Nothing surprising there. He was solid against right-handed batters but even better against same-sided batters, as you’d expect. Heaney allowed only a 250 wOBA to left-handed hitters, and they whiffed 26.15% of the time against his curveball while hitting line drives at only a 3.21% clip.*
* Hat tip to Brooks Baseball.
Zone Profile
Heaney preferred working in the same corner of the zone no matter what type of hitter he faced, though he hammered the low-and-away corner against lefties more than the down-and-in corner against righties. Heaney pretty much just stayed in that area against left-handed batters and succeeded doing so, while against right-handed batters he more liberally moved around the lower part of the zone, working inside, outside, and down the middle.
Fun Fact
On December 10, 2014, Andrew Heaney was a member of both Los Angeles teams in the span of just a few hours. He was part of the package that netted the Marlins Dee Gordon, then the Dodgers flipped him for Kendrick. That’s not news to any Angel fan, but I just wanted an excuse to share this Tweet again because it remains great:
Well, @Dodgers we had a good run! Great to be a part of such a storied franchise. #thanksforthememories
— Andrew Heaney (@Heandog8) December 11, 2014
What to Watch For
Can Heaney avoid the dreaded sophomore slump? He posted a 3.49 ERA, but his FIP was 3.73 and his xFIP was nearly a run higher at 4.41. Per park-adjusted xFIP, he was even a below average pitcher. That’s on account of a 17.8% strikeout rate and a reliance on fly ball outs. More strikeouts and more groundouts would be nice, but we’ve seen Angels pitchers—notably Jered Weaver—baffle FIP/xFIP before. There are worse things than allowing fly balls at Angel Stadium, especially when Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun patrol the outfield. Heaney may have even gotten somewhat unlucky in that regard too, as seven of the nine homers he allowed came in Anaheim and his wOBA allowed at home was .029 points higher than on the road. That kind of split is curious for an Angels pitcher.
Still, it is of some concern that his hard and soft contact rates are below the league average for starting pitchers. We’ll see how Heaney adjusts in April now that other teams have had a full offseason to prepare for him.
A Bold Prediction
Heaney eclipses 200 innings and cements himself as the second best pitcher on the roster, behind only a resurgent Garrett Richards.
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Previous Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun; Mike Trout; Albert Pujols; C.J. Cron; Daniel Nava; Carlos Pérez; Johnny Giavotella; Geovany Soto; Andrelton Simmons; Cliff Pennington; Jered Weaver
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