Andrew McCutchen: Early Hitting Shows Promising Peripherals

Pittsburgh Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen spent the 2016 season enduring talk that he was washed up and over the hill.

He spent the off season hearing almost daily rumors that he was on the trade block.  He handled it remarkably well and even made what was for him a bold statement saying that 2017 would be a “breakout” year for him at the plate.  So far the results have not been there but there are some encouraging signs that Andrew McCutchen’s performance will improve.

Repeat Performance?

On the surface, the 2017 version of Andrew McCutchen seems to be a carbon-copy of last season’s hitter.   Even though the eye test tells you that he looks better, the early numbers are remarkably similar.

Andrew McCutchen Offensive Statistics through 21 games

It’s only 21 games, but after a lot of talk about how this was going to be a breakout season, it’s hard to ignore that Cutch seems to be replicating his 2016 season.  But before we go writing him off after only three weeks of play, we should first examine a few encouraging indicators in his peripheral statistics.

Better Judgment

So far in 2017, McCutchen has been less likely to swing at a ball outside the strike zone.  He is swinging at a career-low 20.6% of pitches that are not strikes.  Many of these are outside, off-speed pitches from right handed pitchers.  This was a pitch that McCutchen was especially susceptible to last season when he swung at 24.1% of pitches outside the zone.  So far in 2017, he is showing more discipline.  This has not led to more walks at this point in the young season, but over time, it will.

He is continuing to swing at strikes about 70% of the time, which has been consistent with his career number.  This, combined with his reduced swing rate outside the zone, has created a sense that McCutchen is more selective at the plate.

Weaker Contact

His contact rate on strikes is 86.7%, a few ticks higher than his 2016 number of 83.8%, but pretty much right on his career average.  However, when he does make contact, his hard hit rate has only been 25% so far in 2017, versus 35.8% last season.  This may be because he appears to be making a concerted effort to hit the ball the opposite way more often.  His percentage of opposite field balls is slightly up from last season at 23.3%, but this does not reflect the number of times Cutch has tried to go the other way, only to lace a ball foul or pop up.  Regardless, his reduced hard-hit rate should not be viewed as a troubling indicator unless he starts to pull everything.

Problems Tracking the Pitch

What seems most improved between now and the start of last season is how McCutchen is tracking the pitch out of the pitcher’s hand and to his bat.  For the first half of the 2106 season, Cutch would sometimes get caught swinging too hard and lifting his head before the ball crossed the plate.  An example of this is in the March 15, 2016 game against the Chicago Cubs’ Jon Lester.

The pitch is a back-foot slider with a little taken off of it.  McCutchen starts his swing and when the ball gets on him, he takes his eyes off of it.  Now, he is not going to hit this ball on most occasions, but possibly he could have chopped it foul and kept his at-bat alive.  There were several noticeable instances of this head action during the middle part of last season.  However, around August, McCutchen must have figured it out because we did not see that particular behavior again.

Improved Tracking so far in 2017

This season, Cutch had a few bad swings where he took his eyes off the ball, but the vast majority have been solid swings with his head tracking the ball all the way to the plate.  Below is a great example of where he stuck out, but still tracked the ball very well.  This time, it was in the April 13, 2017 game against Bryan Mitchell of the New York Yankees.

This was an unfortunate result as he struck out with the bases loaded and the Pittsburgh Pirates up by a run, however, the swing was a good one.  When you put swings like this on the ball, good things eventually happen, like in this at-bat in the April 26, 2017 game again against Jon Lester.

What to expect for the rest of 2017

McCutchen is off to a start in 2017 that looks very similar on paper to 2016.  If 2017 ends up like 2016 then everyone, including Andrew himself, would say it was a disappointment.  However, McCutchen seems to be swinging at less balls outside the zone and tracking pitches better to his bat.  He is trying to go the other way with the pitch more often and although this may lead to reduced exit velocity, it should help him bolster his batting average and on-base percentage. Until last season, McCutchen was always able to use the entire field and a return to this form will be most welcomed.  You will be able to tell that McCutchen has been successful in this regard when other teams stop putting an extreme defensive pull shift on him.

His 2017 batting average and on base percentage should improve above last season’s .256/.336 number.  He may not hit .300/.400/.500, but a .275/.350/.450 season is very doable for the veteran center fielder.

All videos courtesy of Statcast

Photo Credit – Daniel Decker