The Pittsburgh Pirates have moved Andrew McCutchen back into the familiar haunts of the third spot in the order. Critics of the move will point to McCutchen presumably seeing less fastballs than he did while batting sixth. Is that truly the case?
The Pittsburgh Pirates sparked Andrew McCutchen into a capable hitter once again by moving him into the sixth spot in the order.
Many can speculate as to why that was. Was it less pressure? Quite possibly, judging by McCutchen’s comments as told to the Post Gazette’s Sarah Spencer:
[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”Andrew McCutchen as told to the PG” link=”http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2017/05/26/Andrew-McCutchen-dropped-to-sixth-in-starting-lineup-for-series-opener-vs-Mets/stories/201705260306″ color=”” class=”” size=””]“Just kind of give me a little breather,” McCutchen said. “The three-hole sometimes can be one of those spots where you feel like you’ve got to produce and deliver, come through, especially early in the game, middle of the game. I’ve had plenty of opportunities the last few series with runners in scoring position. It might have put a little added pressure on me [where] I feel like I’ve got to do a little bit more.”[/perfectpullquote]Many adhere strictly to on-the-field, tangible factors that may have led to McCutchen’s awakening. And, nearly without fail, many will point to pitchers actually giving him hittable pitches in the sixth spot. Specifically in the case of McCutchen, many have said for years that he a notably low amount of fastballs.
Not all fastballs are created equal of course. Surely Aroldis Chapman‘s fastball is more challenging to hit than Jeff Locke‘s, for example. But generally speaking, heat is a bit easier to track and if a hitter can get bat on ball, he gives himself a chance at a hit, at least.
The axiom that hitters lower in the order usually see better pitches is a tried-and-true one, but does it actually apply to McCutchen’s 2017 season?
Hard to tell, but we will try
The tough thing is, answering that question is a bit hard to quantify.
First, not only can two pitchers have vastly different quality among their fastballs, they can also have differing variants. Two-seamer, cut, split finger, traditional four seamer…the game’s most popular pitch surely has a Baskin Robbins-esque quality.
That makes it difficult for us to truly separate what McCutchen sees in the third spot versus the sixth spot without getting very deep into the weeds.
Rather than just getting a bulk tally of how many fastballs McCutchen sees at each slot, a better exercise would likely to be see how hitters attack him in each slot when the scales are tipped towards the batter or the pitcher.
Who’s ready for some graphics?
Pitch types when McCutchen bats third – behind and ahead in count
(Click/tap to enlarge)
Here we see pitch types for McCutchen when batting third in the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup. On the left is the breakdown seen when McCutchen is behind in the count, and a similar breakdown on the right when he is ahead. All totals are for the 2017 season-to-date.
Initially, we see that pitchers have really had no qualms about using the fastball to get back into the at-bat against the 2013 NL MVP. There really is no earth-shattering analysis to be had here, other than to note that in both cases, pitchers rely on movement as a secondary foil to a four-seam fastball.
Pitchers seem to rely on a slider as a “put away” pitch when they have McCutchen on the ropes. They would be right to do so, as his average exit velocity o 85.6 mph on pitch — during the Statcast era — tells us.
So — for 2017 at least — this gives us a baseline to work from. These are the pitches that Andrew McCutchen saw in a traditional “run production” heavy spot in the lineup. How did this change when he was implanted into the sixth spot?
Pitch types when McCutchen bats sixth – behind and ahead in count
(Click/tap to enlarge)
Just to the naked eye alone, there is a larger swath of fastballs offered to McCutchen in the sixth spot.
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway here is that pitchers are using a four-seam fastball at a roughly 15 percentage point greater clip when they have advantage against him when hitting in the sixth spot.
That is a heck of a nugget, and at first it may seem hard to contextualize. Luckily, Statcast did us a solid with the pitch chart below, which plots all four-seam fastballs thrown when McCutchen is behind in the count:
Remember earlier when we noted that not all fastballs are created equal? Here is a fine example of this. Pitchers were clearly trying to get Andrew McCutchen to chase when he hit sixth.
Major League Baseball does not exist in a vacuum. Teams are more informed now than ever, and when a former MVP receives what can only be perceived as a demotion, it reverberates. It stands to reason that teams were trying to take advantage of McCutchen pressing to turn himself back into a productive bat. Clearly, that did not work as they intended, as the majority fell for balls.
[table id=234 /]To say that his resurrection was purely due to seeing more fastballs would be a fallacy. However, seeing more fastballs may have allowed McCutchen to track balls into the zone better, setting up better results with other pitches on a variety of pitch counts.
How pitchers will now adjust back to McCutchen in the third hole remains to be seen, but we can definitely say that, yes, Pittsburgh Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen did see more fastballs – in terms of percentage – than he did while batting third.
Featured image credit – Daniel Decker Photography
Charts and other images via Statcast
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