I don’t think I’ve ever been as giddy to write this article as I am this year. The reason? I think some of these truly bold predictions have a decent shot at coming true. I love it when no one expects the Angels to do anything, and then the guys come in and produce. It’s a ripe environment to be bold.
Before we cover this year’s predictions, let’s temper expectations a bit by looking over how I fared with my 2015 predictions:
1. Drew Rucisnki will be a productive reliever by July
Missed the boat on this one. I loved the way his stuff played, but it just didn’t play up with the big leaguers. 0-for-1
2. Albert Pujols will have his most productive season as an Angel: .290, 44 2B, 33 HR, 5+ WAR
Yeah, looks like I missed pretty hard on that one, though I undersold the dingers. It’s hard to produce without a healthy lower half, and I’m wondering when we’ll see that from Albert. 0-for-2
3. David Freese will have the second-best season of his career
Nailed it. His most productive season obviously came in a Cardinals uniform when he was a 3-win player, but at two wins, Freese was at his best as an Angel. 1-for-3
4. C.J. Cron will breakout in 2015
I was conspicuously vague on this one last year, but I elaborated by saying that he would change a lot of minds. To be fair, I had .280 and 25 HR’s in mind, so I can’t say with confidence this one was accurate. 1-for-4
5. Alex Yarbrough will be the starting second baseman by August
SWING AND A MISS! Yarbrough struggled big time in AAA and has fallen dangerously low on the depth chart. 1-for-5
Admittedly, a disappointing performance after I’d gone 3-5 the year before, and 2-5 the year before that. We’ll see if I can redeem myself this year.
Here are your FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS for 2016:
1. Kole Calhoun will have his best season as an Angel
This does not seem bold at first glance, so let me elaborate. Despite posting career highs in fly-ball percentage and line-drive percentage, which correlated with a spike in home runs, Kole’s batting average and OBP sunk. This is partly due to an ultra low .309 RBBIP (at least for him). I’m anticipating a 20-point spike in both his batting average and on-base percentage as a result which puts him at .276/.328. Much better than last year. I’m also thinking that as a result of a more selective, refined approach we’ll see a few homers substituted with a few more doubles.
The end result here is that I’m envisioning .276/.326 with 30 doubles and 20 home runs, a 4.5 win season.
2. Garrett Richards will finish Top 5 in the AL Cy Young race
Yes, you heard that right. Garrett Richards will be one of the best best pitchers in the American League this year, firmly planting himself among elite starters like King Felix, Chris Archer, Chris Sale, Dallas Keuchel, David Price, and Sonny Gray. Last season Richards pitched with a leg that wasn’t 100% until later in the year and he still managed to be a #3 starter. This spring, Richards was clocked regularly in the upper-90s and even hit triple digits, though he typically works in the 94-97 range. He also expressed more interest in further developing his change-up and knee-buckling 12-to-6 curve to complement his borderline-unhittable slider and wicked fastball.
The end result here is that I’m seeing Garrett go 200+ innings with an ERA well under 3.00 and the same solid amount of strikeouts while limiting his walks.
3. Albert Pujols will turn back time and deliver a 2012-like performance
Yes, I’m going back to the Albert Pujols well. Last year we saw a different kind of Albert, one that swung for the fences and nothing else. The 40 home runs he mashed were a surprise, mostly because he wasn’t anywhere near his career norms in fly ball percentage or pulled fly balls or in RBBIP. In fact he was last in the league in RBBIP. Coming with the knowledge that Albert was again ailed by plantar fasciitis in his foot, we start to understand that Albert was a combination of hurt and unlucky in 2015. In 2016, I’m expecting a sharp increase in doubles, batting average, and OBP, with a steep decline in home runs.
The end result here is that Albert will hit .275/.330 with 40 doubles and 30 homers.
4. C.J. Cron won’t ever be the player we envisioned
Yep, going back to the C.J. Cron well, too. C.J. comes power-packed with excessive strength and contact ability, even for a power hitter. The issue here is that in order to be successful in the majors, C.J. has had to shift his focus from being a power-only hitter to much more of a balanced line-drive hitter who uses the whole field. He’s shown this spring he’s fully capable of continuing this type of approach that garnered a great deal of success in the second half of last year. Sure, C.J. is going to run into his fair share of bombs just because of how strong he is, but that isn’t going to be the focus of his game moving forward. C.J. is also going to turn into a pretty decent fielder at first base too in Albert’s shift to DH.
The end result here is the .280/.320 slash line I saw coming last year, but lots of doubles and not as many home runs. Across a full season, I’m seeing 35 doubles and 15 home runs. He should be good for 2-3 WAR.
5. The Angels will have the best bullpen in the AL West
I believe this to be quite a bold statement because the AL West has some solid relief arms. This is going to come on the backs of the young relievers the Angels accumulated during the Dipoto Era.
First, let’s start with Mike Morin. Morin was the reliever the Angels needed in 2014, posting a sub-3.00 ERA. His darting fastball and knee-buckling change-up threw hitters off in the worst kind of way. 2015 was a season of injury and adversity for Mike, but he’s come out the other end even better than before. I expect Morin will inherit the 7th inning and lock it down.
Cory Rasmus also had an unusual 2015. He came in with a shot at making their rotation, despite not having served as a true starting pitcher since A Ball. Relief work better fits Rasmus, as when he gets too stretched out injuries tend to occur with him. But in a one-inning specialist role, Rasmus may end up being the Angels’ best reliever. Blessed with a 92-95 mph fastball, a good curve and a great change-up, Rasmus is one of the rare relievers who offers an effective three-pitch mix. I can see Rasmus posting an ERA around 3.00 with a strikeout per inning or more.
Cam Bedrosian finally seems to be coming into his own as a major leaguer, which is not easy. He’s got a former Cy Young winner as a dad and catch partner, so that doesn’t hurt. I’m not sure if Bedrock will spend the entire year with the Angels, but before the end of the year I think he’ll have ironed out most of the hiccups and emerge as the dominant reliever we all saw coming three years ago.
Finally, we also have a true lefty specialist in Greg Mahle. A LOOGY might not seem like a big deal, but the Angels need someone that can come in in any inning and shut down dangerous middle-of-the-order lefties. The AL West is full of left-handed hitting power—Cano, Fielder, Seager, Choo, Reddick, Vogt, Rasmus, Moreland—so having a reliable weapon to deploy against those guys could be huge.
The end result: I think the Angels will be hard to score runs on after the 5th inning.
Also, just for fun, I’m seeing an 88-74 record from the Angels. Good enough for a Wild Card birth.
Thanks for reading, everybody!
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