I’m running out of ways to describe the Angels’ place on the precipice of futility. For close to three weeks now, we’ve talked about the team’s battle against irrelevance, the brink, circling the drain, and oblivion. It’s seemed inevitable that each series would decide the team’s fate one way or another, but here we are 15 games later and somehow the battle continues.
The Angels are an even 3-3 this week with one-third of the most important home stand of the season still to go, after going an uninspiring 4-5 on the most important road trip of the season. When this stretch began, the club was five games back of the division lead and one-and-a-half games back of a wild card spot. Despite playing mediocre baseball throughout, the Halos have lost only half a game in the division and a game more than that in the wild card.
That the team is still alive, then, seems to say a lot more about other teams’ inability to pull away than any real gumption on the part of the Angels. For all that’s been made of Houston’s ascendence this season, they’ve been an exactly .500 club (30-30) since the beginning of July. The odds are still very much in favor of the Astros, but the longer they allow the Halos and Rangers to hang around the more opportunities they’ll get to screw things up.
Houston is one of the few AL teams that’s been as bad on the road (28-40) as the Angels this season, so if ever there was a time for Jered Weaver to channel his May self, Mike Trout to break out of his protracted slump, and for the bottom third of the lineup to not hit like a trio of pitchers, this is it. I hesitate to say that this is the biggest series of the season, having said so several times already, but until the Angels are eliminated for good every series will likely fit that description.
Game 1: Jered Weaver vs. Dallas Keuchel
Facing Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in four of six games on the year is pretty dang unfair. That the Angels managed to average more than three runs a game in those contests is impressive, even if they lost them all. Now that those are out of the way, maybe the Angels can feast on some lesser pitching.
What’s that? They’re facing the front-runner for the AL Cy Young tonight? Well, crud.
I continue to find Dallas Keuchel’s brilliance baffling. The dude can shove, though, and my inability to discern what it is about his extreme ground-ball approach that separates him from guys like Derek Lowe and Jake Westbrook doesn’t mean he won’t continue to dominate. As the fable goes, there’s only so long we can cry luck at things like a .232 BA-against over the last two years before we start to look foolish.
The Angels have faced Keuchel twice this year and lost both games, and that was before the offense decided to roll over dead against southpaw starters. So things don’t look good here.
Weaver’s best start in probably the last three years came against this Astros club in May. Expecting that to happen again is insanity, but hoping for his eighth quality start of the year at home (in 10 games) doesn’t seem too far-fetched. I fully expect Carlos Correa to blast at least one home run into the paint can, but so long as it’s a solo shot it shouldn’t knock the Angels out of it.
Game 2: Hector Santiago vs. Lance McCullers
Hector Santiago continues to be awful in the second half. There but for the grace of god, Santiago ended up with six scoreless innings his last time out. He walked six Rangers on the day and more often than not looked like he had no idea where his pitches would end up. I suppose you can point at his second-half numbers and say “he’s just regressing” if you really want to, but I think there’s more to it than that. Regression isn’t bound by the arbitrary endpoints of 162-game season; just because a guy seems to perform above his head for 100 innings doesn’t mean his walk rate is going to jump to nearly 12% in the second half. It doesn’t work like that. Something is very wrong with Santiago’s mechanics, and the Angels can ill afford not to fix it.
Lance McCullers has been fantastic in his first tour of the league, posting a 3.07 ERA and 2.97 K/BB in 96.2 IP. He had one major hiccup in Texas at the beginning of August, surrendering six runs in just a third of an inning, but otherwise has been about as reliable as starters get. The one thing that might work in the Angels’ favor Saturday is fatigue. McCullers is at a career-high 128.2 innings pitched on the year, more than 20 innings (and nearly 100 batters) beyond his previous high. The young right-hander hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down in his last few starts, but he also hasn’t pitched in the sweltering heat that’s pounded Southern California for the past week.
Game 3: Andrew Heaney vs. Mike Fiers
We’ll get to the vomit-inducing reality of “investing in Andrew Heaney’s brand” in due time. For now, we can distract ourselves by worrying about how he’s fast-approaching a new career-high in innings pitched and how that might be hurting his ability to command the strike zone. Heaney didn’t walk more than two batters in any of his first 10 starts for the Halos, but he’s now walked three in two of his last four. He’s still better than most at avoiding free passes, but the pitch efficiency of his early starts just isn’t there at the moment.
Hopefully he can find a second wind and push through the end of September. If not, the Angels should really think about giving him some extra rest in the final weeks, especially if they’re eliminated from contention.
Mike Fiers will probably be hell for Mike Trout. Like teammate Collin McHugh, Fiers is the rare pitcher who’s found success by living up in the zone with his fastball. It’s how he no-hit the Dodgers last month, and it’s generally how he’s attacked hitters this season. I don’t know how he manages to do much of anything throwing to most hitters’ kill zone, but I imagine it was something to do with his high release point combined with his height. Whatever the case, we can hope his command escapes him Sunday and he leaves several cookies over the plate for the Halos to crush.
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