With Randy Johnson and Craig Biggio being inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend, the Diamondbacks and Astros can cross themselves off the dubious list of franchises that lack a representative in Cooperstown. That leaves six teams remaining, although the Mariners will almost certainly drop off that list next year when Ken Griffey, Jr. is eligible for induction. The final five teams will sit in the corner waiting for a dance partner. In January, Will Leitch wrote a column pondering who would be the first Hall of Famer from each of the remaining clubs. Most of these teams figure to wait a while for their fortunes to change, as Colorado, Miami, Tampa Bay, and Washington lack any surefire bets coming up for nomination. (Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper could change Miami’s and Washington’s status, one day. Todd Helton might be taxed harshly by voters for playing his entire career in Coors Field.)
The Angels are the other remaining club, and it’s particularly embarrassing considering they are older than many franchises that already have a member in the Hall. It speaks to the Angels’ mediocrity for much of their pre-Scioscia existence, but also to bad luck. Nolan Ryan had his best years with the Angels but he went in as a Ranger. Bobby Grich should be in but was overlooked by voters. Rod Carew had productive years with the Angels but he previously peaked with the Twins. The Marlins nearly completed a trade that would have sent future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera to the Angels for a package of prospects and young players but backed away when everyone thought a deal was done. Many of the Angels’ best players could be inducted into the Hall of Very Good (Downing, Salmon, Erstad, etc.), but they never scratched the excellence that the Hall usually demands.
How long will the Angels have to wait before claiming a Hall member of their own? Let’s take a look at the upcoming ballots and see if there’s an Angel in the mix.
2016
Garret Anderson is fortunate he peaked just before more advanced metrics really started to push their way into the mainstream. Angel fans fondly recall Anderson as a stud, when really he was just a solid left fielder. Even while playing a large chunk of his career in the “Steroid” Era, Anderson’s career OBP still only settled at .324, a figure that is barely above average in today’s game but would have been below average during his peak. In his prime, Anderson became one of the “so underrated he’s overrated” poster boys, but he was still a potent bat at the genesis of the Angels’ Golden Age. Even if we only pay attention to his counting stats like homers and hits, there’s still not enough there to justify Anderson as a Hall of Famer. Yet another home grown Hall of Very Good inductee for the Halos. He may not make the Hall, but we’ll always have the World Series winning double.
Jim Edmonds is going to be an interesting candidate, but if he’s inducted it will be as a Cardinal. Maybe THE most famous highlight of his career was as an Angel, but his best years were spent in St. Louis. But hey, totally worth trading for less than a full season of Kent Bottenfield. Ironically, even though it was a horrific trade, Angel fans might not mind it all that much. Trading Edmonds also netted Adam Kennedy, who had a fine career in his own right and famously won MVP of the 2002 ALCS after he hit three homers in the clinching game against the Twins. There’s another dimension where the Angels don’t trade Edmonds, are better for it, and are still chasing the franchise’s first World Series title.
Troy Glaus looked poised to evolve into a superstar and then…just never did. In 2000, his second full year with the Angels, Glaus set the franchise record for home runs in a season with 47* and was worth 8.2 fWAR. 2000 proved to be a fluke, but Glaus was still a good player for the Angels before injuries sapped his production. It has been ten years since Glaus departed and the Angels still haven’t found a long term solution at third base.
* Trout and Pujols could break that this season.
Other former Angels on the 2016 ballot: David Eckstein, Jeff Weaver, Bengie Molina
2017
Orlando Cabrera isn’t a Hall of Famer, and even if he was he bounced around too much to get serious consideration as an Angel representative. He was one of my favorite Angels at the time, so I’m not going to look at his numbers right now because I don’t want to be disappointed if he actually wasn’t as good as I remember.
If there’s going to be a former Expo turned Angel in the 2017 class that makes the Hall, it’ll be Vladimir Guerrero. And, spoiler alert, he is the Angels’ best chance on an a ballot in the next five years. Guerrero is an interesting case, and the Angels have two problems that will need to be overcome if Vladdy is to be their first Hall of Famer. The first is, simply, Guerrero might not actually be worthy. There are 24 right fielders currently in the Hall and per Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric — a metric designed to determine a player’s Hall of Fame candidacy by taking the average of a player’s seven-year peak WAR and their career total WAR — Guerrero has the 21st best case to get in. He is more qualified than some players that are already in the Hall, but also less qualified than someone like Larry Walker, who it doesn’t look like will get in. Per JAWS, Vlad’s seven-year peak lines up favorably to the average right fielder in the Hall; the problem is his career lacks the longevity of a typical Hall member. We have playing on concrete in Montreal to thank for Vlad’s swift decline. Factor in a stuffed ballot with players that should already be Hall of Famers and Guerrero could be squeezed out of induction in the foreseeable future. If Vlad is voted in, it will be based on his peak and the fond memories everyone has of the kid with zero plate discipline launching balls into empty Olympic Stadium seats and gunning down runners at home plate from the warning track. Vlad’s inclusion wouldn’t be a travesty; there are certainly much worse Hall of Famers.
The second problem for the Angels to overcome: there’s a threat he goes in as an Expo. For one, his peak coincided with his days in Montreal. Even though he won an MVP with the Angels in 2004, his best seasons were already behind him at that point. Further hurting his case as an Angel, the Halos never went deep enough into the postseason to give Guerrero a chance to shine on a bigger stage. There were a couple ALDS moments in Fenway Park, but nothing that helped deliver the Angels a championship. And like I said earlier, I think most non-Angel fans remember Vlad as an Expo, anyway. The tall, lanky kid earning Roberto Clemente comparisons, not the diminished, gimpy part-time DH in Anaheim. Guerrero is realistically the last Expo that would ever be inducted, and the Hall might throw Montreal fans one last bone. Unless someone kidnaps Jonah Keri, the Twitter campaign for Guerrero to enter the Hall as an Expo will be loud.
I love Vladdy, and I hope he is voted in. I just don’t think it will be as an Angel if he ever gets there.
2018
Brian Fuentes. Motherfucking Brian Fuentes.
Right field in Yankee Stadium is just the dumbest.
Other former Angels: Hideki Matsui, Adam Kennedy, Gary Matthews, Jr., Jason Isringhausen
2019
Fan favorite Vernon Wells?
Other former Angels: Jon Garland, Darren Oliver
2020
Angel fans remember Bobby Abreu as the guy that blocked Mike Trout in April 2012. And, yeah, he sucked in 2011 and 2012. But he was still a two-win player his first two years with the Angels even if that feels like a million years ago. Abreu has a solid case for induction. He won’t be inducted, and if he does it will be as a Philadelphia representative.
That’s it for the upcoming ballots. So if it’s not Vladimir Guerrero, then nobody on any upcoming ballot is getting in for the Angels. What if we scour the landscape of current players? You see where this is headed.
Active Players
We now view Bartolo Colon as a loveable, pudgy gif machine, but he was a damn good pitcher in his prime, winning the Cy Young in 2005 while an Angel (that was the year he robbed Johan Santana of the award, but still, he won). His current JAWS slots him at 131st among starting pitchers — better than Jack Morris! — and he will move up a bit if he continues to pitch into his mid-40s. He isn’t Hall material, but he’s more qualified than most might expect.
Jered Weaver will also fall short, his JAWS ranking him 172nd among starting pitchers. There was a time three years ago that, if you squinted, you could make a case for Weaver if he maintained his career trajectory. Not a very strong case, but a case. Diminished stuff has brought about his decline quicker than most Angel fans probably thought, and Weaver won’t receive serious consideration.
Francisco Rodriguez likely won’t be voted in, but he should stick around on the ballot for a few years because voters love saves. While Kenny Lofton, eighth in center fielder JAWS, couldn’t survive the cut even once, Lee Smith was on 30% of the ballots this year. If Rodriguez pitches for a few more seasons he’ll pass Smith on the all-time saves list. K-Rod won’t save 600 games, something only Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have done, but it’s not impossible that he becomes only the third pitcher ever with 500 saves; plus, Rodriguez set the single-season saves record in 2008 while an Angel. Rodriguez also has the added bonus of playoff excellence on his résumé , when in 2002 he made every mortal — i.e., not Barry Bonds — he faced in the postseason cry with his wipe out breaking ball. It’ll be tough for non-Rivera relievers to gain enough support to reach Cooperstown, especially as more stat-minded voters enter the fray. Relievers just aren’t as valuable as we like to believe. In the hypothetical world K-Rod is an inductee, he would certainly enter as an Angel, where he made his name and had his best seasons.
There’s Albert Pujols, but he became a first-ballot Hall of Famer with a decade of excellence in St. Louis, and he would have made it even if he retired after 2011. He has resuscitated his Halo career this season, but there’s essentially nothing he can do during the remainder of this contract that would get him into the Hall as an Angel short of winning, like, four MVPs, a couple rings, and topping 800 homers.
That brings us to Mike Trout. It always comes back to Trout. Trout already ranks 54th among center fielders in JAWS, ahead of an actual Hall of Famer (someone named Lloyd Waner). Dude is 23. The seven-year peak WAR average for Hall of Fame center fielders is 44. Trout already sits at 34.7, and given his track record should pass 44 WAR next season with two seasons to spare. He’s on track not only to be a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer, but also to be literally one of the best players ever. I don’t think it is hyperbolic to say that at this point.
Of course, injuries could derail Trout. They could derail anyone. Trout has never been on the DL before, so that is as good an indicator we have right now that he isn’t especially prone to the injury bug. And, for this exercise, Trout could always leave the Angels while he is still in his prime. After the 2020 season, Trout can leave and head to a team that gives him a chance to win a ring if he hasn’t already won with the Angels by then. Or he could go closer to home. He’ll be the most sought after free agent ever, he can do whatever he wants. If Trout hits the market, every team with cash will make a play for him, offering a record-breaking contract. The Angels have to hope Trout likes Anaheim enough, or is content with the team around him, that he stays. But even if Trout does leave, I think he will mimic Pujols, in that his first decade with one franchise was so bananas that anything he does in his decline phase for another team won’t matter. The only thing we can be certain of — as certain as one can be with Hall of Fame shenanigans — is if he plays in Anaheim for the majority of his career and doesn’t suffer too many injuries, Trout will be represent the Angels in Cooperstown.
Start planning your Cooperstown vacation for July sometime in the middle to late 2030s. That’s when, finally, the Angels will have a Hall of Fame inductee to call their own.
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