Every season brings its fair share of surprises in terms of breakouts, resurgences, and major letdowns at the plate. A fair chunk of it boils down to the randomness of the game—be it injury or luck—but some aspects of it can be measured and projected forward. For this article, our purpose is to look at some 2015 batted-ball stats for the current Angels infield and make a judgement as to whether those players overperformed, underperformed, or were right at their “true talent” level in the batter’s box last year. From there, we can compare to their career stats and hopefully make an informed prediction about what to expect for the coming season.
The specific stats we’ll be looking at are GB %, FB %, LD %, PFB%, and RBBIP. These numbers aren’t going to tell the whole story, but they’ll offer a nice summary. Here’s a basic rundown on what each stat means:
- GB% – Percent of balls in play that are ground balls.
- FB% – Percent of balls in play that are fly balls (not including infield pop-ups).
- LD% – Percent of balls in play that are line drives.
- PFB% – Percent of fly balls that hit to the pull side.
- RBBIP – Similar to BABIP, this the percentage of balls in play (not HRs) that go for a hit or a ROE.
Carlos Perez – Perez hit 42% of his balls on the ground which falls directly in line with what he did in the high minors. His 20% flyball percentage is a stark drop from anything we saw at any level, yet his LD% was higher than it was in AA by a significant amount. Thirty-five percent of the fly balls he hit were pulled. His career average is around 50% and the major league average is around 41%, which suggests that Carlos struggled with turning on pitches. His RBBIP was .308 which is about league average and below what he’s generally done in the minors, which is to be expected to a certain extent.
Verdict: Perez performed pretty much as expected. His LD% was inflated, so I’d expect that to drop a little, but his inability to turn on pitches was a new development that I expect will be rectified this year. As for 2016, I expect Perez’s batting average should drop ever-so-slightly but his amount of XBH should increase as he learns to turn on pitches better.
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C.J. Cron – Forty-five percent of the contact Cron made resulted in ground balls last season, which is not only incredibly high for a power hitter, but also far above anything he ever recorded in the minors. I’m not sure what to make of it, except to say that he showed an uncanny knack for well-placed ground balls during hit-and-run plays last year, and a willingness not to go for the HR every time. As a result, his FB% was WAY below his rate in the minors and far below the major league average. Cron maintained his ability to spray line drives to all fields, which is a skill that developed toward the end of AA and has continued to improve every year. The real head-scratcher here is the PFB being at just 43%, a far cry from his career norm of ~60% and also below the league average.
It appears Cron has focused solely on hitting the ball the other way and has become rather adept at it. This is good in that it creates a higher batting average, but can also hinder a power hitter’s ability to drive the ball over the wall. His RBBIP has always been fairly low, which is normal for a player that hits his fair share of fly balls and isn’t overly fast. Last year it dipped down to .292, close to 20 points lower than the league average, which suggests there was a small degree of bad luck involved.
Verdict: Cron either underperformed or transformed as a hitter—this year should tell us which. Maybe he’ll hit more fly balls, turn on the ball better, and have a little better luck in the RBBIP department, which will should result in the same BA/OBP but with more dingers—this is the popular opinion—or maybe Cron has shifted to more of a line drive and ground ball approach, which would be bad for everyone.
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Albert Pujols – For this one we’re going to jumping into some stats we haven’t highlighted yet, but you’ll catch on quickly. Let’s just summarize it by saying pitchers are throwing Pujols more strikes than ever, and he’s making just as much conact as he ever did. The main difference between St. Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols and Los Angeles Angels Albert Pujols is that he’s chasing pitches outside the zone more than ever, and he simply isn’t turning on pitches and driving them like he used to. Pujols’ GB% (43%) and LD% (23%) both fall well within his career norms. It’s the FB% (25%) that is a far cry from his glory days of 30+% in this category. Despite the 40 HRs, he isn’t driving he ball the way he has in his career. It sounds counter-intuitive, but statistically speaking, it’s an accurate assessment. His PFB was a full 10% below his career norms and his RBBIP plummeted to unheard of levels (.227)—the worst mark in baseball among qualified hitters. All this indicates that Albert just wasn’t the same player last year. How he managed to hit 40 HRs is something of a mystery, as he hitting the ball in the air as much, and when he did, he wasn’t pulling the ball.
Verdict: The truth is, we have to find a happy medium between fortune and age. His numbers should go down with age, which is normal, but they shouldn’t go down as far as his did in 2015. It indicates Albert has either reached the proverbial cliff, or he was unlucky last year. If we pretend for our own sanity it isn’t the cliff, then it appears Pujols underperformed last year, despite the 40 dingers.
As for 2016: If regression to the mean occurs, we shouldn’t expect 40 HRs to happen again. Twenty-five or 30 is much more likely going forward. The batting average and OBP should return to relative norms though. It’s hard to picture Pujols being much more unfortunate in this department than he was last year. Even with how common shifting has become, a .227 RBBIP is just unheard of in correlation to his production. It is far more likely that Pujols’ 2016 numbers will more resemble his 2014 numbers (.272/.324 and 28 HRs) than his 2015 numbers (.244/.307 and 40 HRs).
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Johnny Giavotella – Giavotella was a surprise last year, both in that he won the second base job outright in Spring Training, but also that he managed to post out-of-this-world numbers in high leverage situations. He just kept coming up clutch, mostly at a rate that is unsustainable but so fun to watch. Looking at his overall numbers on offense, they were simply ok: Ok power for a middle infielder; ok batting average; a good baserunner but a bad base thief. His GB% fell in line with what he’s done in the minors, but he hit about half as many fly balls and almost doubled his LD% (28.8%). This all helped Johnny G post an average-ish .305 RBBIP in his first extended taste of major league action.
Verdict: Giavotella was both unlucky and lucky. His RBBIP was good, but too low for how many liners he hit. His batting average and OBP really should’ve been better. But he was also extremely lucky in that, out of nowhere, he started stinging the ball in the majors in a way that he never had before. If you’re skeptical, you have a pretty good reason to be.
My 2016 prediction: I think his numbers will dip. The LD% and clutch hits just came out of nowhere and are nearly impossible to sustain. There is always a small chance, though—off the top of my head let’s say 10%—that he might stay where he’s at or be even better. He’s reached his physical prime, the vision issues seem to be sorted out, and he’s living his dream. We may as well stay optimistic he can keep it going.
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Andrelton Simmons – The newly acquired, star-studded shortstop was a redefined player at the plate last year. When he first reached the major leagues, Simmons was a dead-pull hitter who had no problem hitting the ball the in the air. The end result was a surprising number of homers (17) from someone who was perceived to be a light-hitting shortstop. As we get further and further from that rookie power burst, though, we seem to see less and less of that player. His ground-ball percentage has since climbed 15 percentage points—to nearly 56%—his FB% has plummeted by 10 percentage points—to just under 14%—and the LD% has spiked, up to 24.3% in 2015. So Simmons is a different hitter now, but that doesn’t mean he’s not growing. His RBBIP has remained relatively the same and his PFB has decreased rather dramatically, showing a player that is using the whole field. As Simmons has done this, unsurprisingly, the batting average and OBP have increased. There’s some debate as to whether the 26-year-old is done developing as a professional hitter, but the prevailing thought is that he’s not, and for that reason it’s easy to see a bright future ahead.
Verdict: Simmons hasn’t shown any glimpse of fortune or misfortune in his performance so far, just a variety of approaches at the plate. Typically, I’d predict an all-around improvement in Andrelton’s numbers as he’s begun using the whole field and is entering his prime. But he’s now in a new environment that’s less friendly to hitters, not to mention a different league. A period of adjustment is to be expected, as has been the case with virtually all free agents that come to Anaheim—e.g. Hunter, Pujols, Hamilton. So his overall production may decrease initially but it’ll correct itself as he gets acquainted.
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Yunel Escobar – Escobar had a career year last season, hitting .314/.375/.414 while manning the hot corner for the first time. The 32-year-old accomplished this while being more free-swinging than ever, rarely working counts. Typically, this leads to trouble, but for some reason with Escobar it resulted in a renewed success at the plate. Safe to say this has batted-ball luck written all over it. While his GB% was higher than normal, it wasn’t anything worth noting; It’s the FB% and LD% that really stand out. Escobar used to put about 25% of his balls in play into the air, but last year this plummeted to 12%. This coincided with a 28% line drive rate, easily the best rate of his career. Now, one could argue this was merely an adjustment at the plate, but then you see his .359 RBBIP. The league average is .311, and Escobar’s career average was typically around .300. If a 60-point swing in batted-ball fortune isn’t indicative of lady luck’s presence, then I’m not sure what is.
Verdict: Overperformed, for sure. I’m glad Escobar is on the team, and I’m really looking forward to see him line up next to Simmons. But let’s be honest, he may never hit .314 again. Even if it were just a combination of mostly adjustments and a little luck, you’re still looking at at least a 20-point drop in his batting average this year. I’m guessing we’re more likely in store of a 30-point drop which means I expect Escobar to hit around .280, and not .314. Still not bad, though!
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