A 2014 draft pick with helium, Chris Ellis parlayed a breakout year in college into becoming a third round pick for the Angels. Did they get themselves a steal or get buy too much into the hype?
Chris Ellis
10 words or less: May be a steal of the draft. Considerable upside.
Position: SP Born: 9/22/1992
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6’5″ Weight: 205
2014 Rank: unranked
2014 Season Stats
[table id=58 /]
PITCHING
Fastball – B. Ellis’ fastball is seen in two dimensions. The first, that it’s a low-90’s offering with lots of movement that’s likely to increase given his slight build and relative young age. The second is that he spent the majority of his career in college as a closer and that if he were to transition to one in the minors, he’d be able to bring it up into the mid-90’s with the proper instruction. In either role, Ellis’ fastball is currently an above average offering and has the chance to be well above average in the future. The movement is particularly key as his fastball will move in just about any direction, but most commonly tails in on righties.
Off-speed Pitches – B+. Ellis curve is actually very good, he just needs to find the consistency. Currently, it’s thrown overly hard and despite the sharp break, just doesn’t stay in the strike zone. I have faith that with the proper instruction he’ll be snapping off “plus” curves quite soon. His change up is already what I’d classify as a “plus” pitch. He uses the same arm angle and the pitch absolutely dives at the knees on RHB. It’s filthy.
Control – D. And this is the area where Ellis will need to show the most growth. Reports indicate his mechanics were hit or miss, as was his balance on the mound as well as his finish. When I saw him, I saw varying landing spots, but fluid throughout and a good follow-through. What I also saw were a lot of deep counts and a lot o balls well out of the strike zone.
Command – F. One thing at a time. Ellis needs to focus on ironing everything out and throwing strikes before he can begin to focus on spotting pitches in specific parts of the strike zone.
Mechanics – C. A definite work in progress, but the good news is Ellis’ delivery isn’t too herky-jerky despite being 6’5. He shows a lot of pushoff and momentum toward home plate and a clean arm motion and finish. I see no mechanics related injury on the horizon, but there does seem to be things he can work on which should help him in all facets of the game.
OVERALL
Performance – B. Ellis came in as a little known reliever at Ole Miss with varying degrees of effectiveness. He transitioned into the rotation and became one of the better collegiate starters in the country. If he were more of a polished product, he could’ve gone in the first round. But outside of his performance in the Cape Cod League and one year of college ball, there wasn’t anything to really base his success off of. He just seemed to go from marginal to superstar overnight. Clearly, it was enough for the Angels to buy in, and for now it looks like there’s the possibility of a big payout. His numbers in Orem reflect where he is developmentally though, which is a work in progress. Still, expect Ellis to be in A Ball next season, with the possibility of Advanced A Ball depending on his showing this Spring.
Projection – B. Ellis doesn’t have the look of an ace or future Cy Young candidate, but he certainly looks better than most 3rd round draft picks. He already has one “plus” pitch, another borderline “plus” pitch, and another that can be “plus” soon enough. If things break right, we’re looking t a solid #2-3 starter with a low to mid-90’s fastball with crazy movement, hard, sharp curve and knee buckling change up. If things don’t go over as smoothly as imagined, there’s still a lot to like as a reliever, but he sure looks like a starter to me. More than likely, I see Ellis being more of a #4 starter in the majors. Working in the low-90’s with movement, he won’t pile up the strikeouts, but he’ll generate a lot of weak contact with the movement on his pitches and be especially effective against RHB.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2018. Ellis will be playing as a 22 year old next year, and still has some projectable growth not only in his frame but also his mechanics. Expect there to be some growing pains, as it’s unlikely he figures it all out overnight. But once it clicks, I think we’ll see him climb the ladder and earn a spot in the Angels rotation down the road in his mid-20’s.
Grade as a Prospect – B-. Ellis’ combination of upside and collegiate success set him a cut above the majority of prospects. But until we see growth and success in the minor leagues, he’ll simply be an above average prospect.
2014 in Review*
Chris Ellis was a third-round pick in this year’s draft, so he doesn’t have much of a professional track record to draw off of. He actually doesn’t have much of a college career to look at either. Ellis came out of Ole Miss after his junior year, but it was also his first year as a rotation member. Looking at his numbers, you see a guy who gave up almost as many hits as innings pitched and struck out just below six batters per nine innings. That’s not exactly exciting.
However, Ellis has the attractive package of tools that earned him his draft status. He’s got a big frame, flirts with the mid-nineties on his heater and already has a three-pitch mix and already has an ability to induce weak contact. He just needs to learn more of the craft and he could rocket through up the organizational ladder.
The Halos already saw results with Ellis as he showed an improved ability to miss bats during his brief stint in the Pioneer League. He was still a bit hittable there as well, but he’s now going to spend the whole year getting coached up by the Angels minor league staff to be the kind of pitcher they want him to be.
Looking Ahead*
Between his age and big workhorse body, there is no reason for Chris Ellis to not move to full season ball in Burlington in 2015. From there, it is all about him learning to tread the fine line between pitching to contact with his strong fastball command and setting batters up so he can put them away with his power curve.
One of the real encouraging points for Ellis is that he doesn’t look like a guy just biding time until he moves to the bullpen. Two years ago, it seemed like I ended every profile on a pitching prospect with “he’ll probably wind up in relief.” That shouldn’t be the case with Ellis, now with him already boasting a three-pitch mix and at least some idea of what he’s doing out there. That’s a welcome relief (pun intended), even if Ellis only tops out as a #4 starter.
*As we do every year, the scouting reports and grades are provided by Scotty Allen while Garrett Wilson provides the 2014 in Review and Looking Ahead sections.
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