10 words or fewer: Standard collegiate RHP. Should climb quickly. Back-end starter.
Position: SP | Age (2016): 22
Throws: R | Bats: R
Height: 6’5″ | Weight: 200
2015 Rank: N/A
Fastball – C+. Long has a very firm 91-93 mph fastball. He spots it well on the outer half and is particularly effective when keeping the ball down, like most pitchers. What separates Long however, is that he sits 91-93 with relative ease. Like a RH version of Andrew Heaney, the low-90’s fastball comes with little effort. If he were ever forced into a bullpen role, I could see 95.
Off-speed Pitches – B. Long comes pre-packaged with a “plus” change up and average major league quality breaking ball.
Control – B-. Most reports indicate that Long’s control was a positive tool in college, but the numbers in Rookie Ball speak otherwise. I’m going with my gut here and giving him a B, meaning he’s above average in this department. I think the Rookie Ball number was simply a small sample size.
Command – B. Same here with command. Everything I’ve seen in Long so far suggests he should be quite adept as spotting his pitches, but we’ll get a better look next year.
Mechanics – A. They don’t get much better than Long. Perfect balance, good arm slot, good motion, low effort delivery. It’s smooth sailing for him.
Performance – B. The numbers (outside of the K/9) didn’t look pretty in Orem, but hardly any starters do. But his season for Texas A&M was as good as they come. He was one of the top starters in the country, their staff ace and at times, simply dominated collegiate hitters.
Projection – C+. Long figures to be more of a back-end starter due to a lack of elite velocity or breaking ball. But here’s where I disagree with many in the scouting industry: A hard fastball and a hard slider don’t equate ace. More often than not, they equate bullpen piece. But a firm fastball with clean mechanics, a good changeup and workable slider? That sounds like a 2-3-4-5 type of starter in the majors, and that’s what I saw Long show this year.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2018/19. Long likely won’t spend more than 2-3 years in the minors, if that. He’s a polished collegiate workhorse. If the Angels wanted to be aggressive, I think they could stash him in AA and not regret it this year, though the overall depth of the system indicates that’s unlikely.
What to expect in 2016 – I expect we’ll see Long in the Cal League to start the year and finish the year in AA. Don’t let the Cal League inflated numbers fool you. Personally, I’ll be watching how frequently he works ahead, his LD% and his BB/9 as the stronger indicators of performance.
Most Likely Scenario – Long cruises through the minors with very good numbers and relative ease, and makes it up to the majors and emerges as very solid 4th or 5th starter that can give you 180+ innings a year and an ERA south of 4.00.
Grade as a Prospect – B-. Decent upside, young, quick climber, all the tools he needs to compete, and they managed to swipe him in the 3rd round despite the fact that he likely would’ve been justified in the second of even compensation round. This is a good prospect for the Angels to have in their system.
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