In 10 words or fewer: Is the breakout real? Elite defender. High upside.
Position: 3B | Age (2016): 24
Bats: S | Throws: R
Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 225
2015 Rank: 12
OFFENSE
Contact – B. Cowart has a few strengths as a hitter, but they’re mostly based on projected future skills. However, his current bat-to-ball ability is already above average for a corner infielder.
Power – C+. If Cowart hits the lottery, we’re looking at 20-25 HRs a year, but as currently gifted, Cowart figures to profile more in the 7-12 range. He still has decent gap to gap pop though. Swing is more generated for line drives, but strength dictates HRs could come soon.
Discipline – C+ Cowart used to have a pretty solid approach at the plate, but more recently as he’s faced more advanced pitching, he’s struggled to reach base at a more consistent rate. His high OBP in AAA was fueled by his high BA which was fueled buy his ultra-high BABIP which was fueled by luck and environment. Make of that what you will.
Speed – B. Cowart has very good footspeed for a corner infielder, but in terms of the rest of baseball, he’s simply above average. He should swipe 10+ a year.
DEFENSE
Arm – A+. The best arm among third baseman in the minors, and in his short stint in the majors, possibly the best there too. I don’t give A+ out with any frequency, on average 1-2 a year. Cowart’s arm is that good.
Fielding – B. Cowart has an above-average glove, both as a third baseman and baseball in general. Capable of playing at a Gold Glove level when things are working in his favor.
Range – A-. Cowart’s lateral movement at third base is among the better you’ll see. It isn’t quite where Beltre is coming in, but side to side, it’s close.
OVERALL
Performance – A. I’d all but written Cowart off, and I wasn’t alone in that. But he made some adjustments in returning to his former batting stance and approach, and from there he took off. Everything about the AAA numbers screams fluke, but while in the majors, it looked like he was beginning to turn the corner before David Freese came off the DL.
Projection – A. At best, Kaleb Cowart is going to be an all-star level third baseman, capable of hitting .270/.340, 30+ 2B, and 20+ HR with gold glove defense. But that’s the absolute peak of his value, which it’s doubtful he’ll ever reach that.
What to expect in 2016 – I expect Cowart to begin the year in AAA, and hone his craft down there, perhaps being promoted to the majors in the event of injury. The biggest thing for Cowart will be to prove that his numbers in AAA weren’t a total fluke.
Most Likely Scenario – Cowart will likely never hit enough to be anything more than an average major league third baseman. But when you’re as gifted defensively as Cowart is, you don’t have to be a great hitter. Cowart’s defensive ability alone would make him roughly as valuable, if not more so than David Freese has been for the Angels. My guess is, Cowart ends up being a .230/.300 hitter in the majors with 25 DB, 10 HR, 10 SB, and Gold Glove quality defense. That should put him on track to be a two-win player on an annual basis.
Grade as a Prospect – B-. Cowart’s floor and ceiling are so diverse it’s hard to get a good gauge on who he is. However, the defensive ability and ceiling make him an attractive prospect.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2016. Cowart should spend the majority of the year in AAA, but he should log some time in the majors this year too.
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