In 10 words or less: Where does he fit? Will he hit?
Position: 3B/LF | Age (2016): 25
Bats: L | Throws: R
Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 210
2015 Rank: 6
OFFENSE
Contact – D+. Kubitza’s a bit of a strange case in that his swing can be long, but his path to the ball is direct. Yet due to a number of factors, his ability to make contact will never be anything better than average or even below average. Kubitza doesn’t have a contact problem in the way Trumbo used to or Trout did for one year, but it’s clear this is not going to be a tool that folks will talk about glowingly.
Power – B. Kubitza has the best gap power in the system. He led the Pacific Coast League in doubles and it was easy to see why. This kid just lives in the gaps. The reason why he isn’t hitting 30 home runs a year despite having the strength to do so lies in where his power plays. For example, when Kyle really gets into a ball, it comes in the form of a towering shot to left-center field despite him being left-handed. So he has oppo power. When he pulls the ball, it’s more of the line drive variety. And when he goes complete opposite, it’s the ground-ball variety. The end result is a spotted map of power with no real consistency. So in the majors, expect Kyle to hit a lot more doubles, particularly in Angels Stadium as the deepest part of the field is exactly where his power truly resides.
Discipline – A. Part of what attracted the Angels to trade for Kyle is his ability to work himself into a good hitting count and drive the ball, and if necessary, take a walk. This is a transferable skill and should serve him well in the majors with experience.
Speed – B. Kyle is actually VERY fast for a corner infielder. When he gets moving on the bases, this kid can absolutely glide. He takes fewer strides and doesn’t seem to be moving fast or showing any effort, yet when you’re actually there in person, you realize how fast he gets rounding first base. Now obviously, he likely won’t be a huge stolen base threat in the majors, but 10 on an annual basis should be normal. If the Angels were aggressive with him, which they won’t be, but if they were, 20 per season could be expected.
DEFENSE
Arm – B. Kubitza comes pre-packaged with a pretty solid arm. Definitely good enough to play up at third base or wherever else in the field.
Fielding – C+. This C+ grade is actually the result of a lot of hard work on behalf of Kubitza and the Angels. He came to the Braves as a poor fielding third baseman, and by the time the Angels traded for him, he was a poor fielding third baseman with the talent to someday be a good fielding third baseman. The early season results were pretty brutal however. He was choppy, uncomfortable with the emphasis on footwork, and he just buckled under the pressure in Spring Training and early on in AAA. But then he found his groove and eventually started to look like a competent third baseman in AAA before being promoted to the majors where he again, buckled under the pressure in his first stint. He just did not look good at third base at all. This led the club to begin exploring the idea of Kubitza in LF, and once they sent him out there, he just didn’t look at home. He has the talent to be a good LF just like he has the talent to be a good third baseman, but it just isn’t happening. Once Kyle moved back to third base in AAA, Kyle really took off and started playing up to his ability as an above average third baseman. With time and comfort, that’s what Kyle could be, an above average defensive third baseman. It should be noted that toward the end of the year, the Angels also began to kick around the idea of Kubitza at second base. We’ll see what becomes of that.
Range – C+. This is where Kubtiza struggled the most at first. The Braves just did not help him develop his footwork at all and Alfredo Griffin inherited a kid with athleticism but no finesse. He had good range coming in, but if I were to assign a grade for his lateral movement, it would’ve been an “F”. However, with time Kubitza got more comfortable with what Alfredo was teaching him, and eventually Kyle started to look like a pretty solid option at the hot corner. Of course, this is all over-shadowed by the fact that Kaleb Cowart is possibly the best defensive third baseman on the planet, so when we see Kyle next to him, it’s understandable the Angels would be more inclined to slot Cowart in at third base.
OVERALL
Performance – C-. Much as I enjoyed getting to watch Kyle a bit this year, it’s clear that he was over-matched in his first stint in the majors. He had a horrid start to Spring Training and didn’t begin to round into form until the end (at which point he tore it up), but it was too little too late. He started off pretty well at the plate in Salt Lake, but suffered in the field. He was promoted out of necessity and he just wasn’t ready in his first stint in the majors. The Angels sent him back down eventually but Kubitza lost all sense of rhythm and had to work to regain it. Luckily for him, his defense was improving. By the end of the year, he was hitting the ball and playing solid defense, but it was in AAA while Cowart played third base for the Angels. Defense counts. So while Kyle led the PCL in doubles and showed an excellent ability to reach base, he did admittedly look overmatched in his first stint with the Angels.
Projection – B. If Kubitza reaches his ceiling, he’ll be a decent defensive third baseman that posts an OBP near .400 and hits 40 doubles and 20 HR. The floor is what he is now, which is merely a AAA option at a few positions. The end result however, looks to be somewhere in the middle. Kubitza will likely hit .260 0r .270 in the majors, but with a .330 or .340 OBP. He should be an average defensive third baseman if he stays there, otherwise he might turn into a passable LF or 2B. Kyle should also hit 40 doubles in the majors just like he did in AAA, and his HR power will likely stabilize at round 10 per season. So if he’s a .270/.340, 40 2B, 10 HR hitter, that would make him pretty similar to Daniel Murphy, formerly of the Mets, now with the Nats. Kyle should end up being an above average everyday major leaguer. Not a superstar or gold glover, but a player that should be a steady force in the lineup and just good enough in the field.
What to expect in 2016 – This one is difficult to answer. It looks like Cowart is headed for third base in AAA, which likely means the Angels are going to shift Kubitza out to LF (they have other options at second base that are better defensively). So I expect Kyle to get acclimated to his new home in LF, which will come with its own set of bumps and bruises along the way. But I do think his bat is ready to make the leap from the minors to the majors this year, and if it does, we’ll see Kyle back in action. The Angels current LF options (Nava and Gentry) don’t look so strong that they’ll be able to hold off a hot hitting prospect. I expect Kyle will bounce between AAA and the majors and see some time at LF and 3B mostly.
Most Likely Scenario – As I said, Kubitza will likely turn into an above average major leaguer at some point and at some position.
Grade as a Prospect – B. Kyle is just too good not to be a well above average prospect. I know I’m higher on him that any other lists, but I gotta go with my gut here and my gut says Kubitza’s going to be good.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2016/2017. He had a small taste of the majors last year, and I think he’ll get a bigger one this year before solidifying himself at the top level next year as a 26 year old.
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