Though he doesn’t have the best fastball or the greatest arsenal of offspeed pitches, Nate Smith unquestionably had one of the best statistical performances out of all Angels pitching prospects in 2014. But is his success repeatable or is Smith just a minor league overachiever?
Nate Smith
10 words or less: Did you know he was actually good? Me neither!
Position: SP Born: 8/28/1991
Bats: L Throws: L
Height: 6’3″ Weight: 200
2014 Rank: Unranked
2014 Season Stats
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PITCHING
Fastball – D. When you look at his fastball, it’s hard to figure out why Nate Smith is so effective. There aren’t any gimmicks or add-ons. No strange arm angle, no deception, no real velocity, not a ton of movement. It’s just a straight 88-91 mph fastball. The average major league lefty throws 90-91 mph, so he’s below average in this regard.
Off-speed Pitches – B. I had the chance to watch Nate pitch a few different times this year, and was pleasantly surprised by his consistency. He was the same, start-to-start. There has to be something said for that. Smith’s curve was an above average pitch (probably average in the majors) that he could use in any count and throw it for a strike. I’ve read reports that Smith’s change up was a somewhat average offering, but this wasn’t my take away at all. He used it quite frequently, and experienced great success with it as it was a 10-15 mph break from his fastball with a “heaviness” to it that hitters just couldn’t drive, even when they knew it was coming. I consider these both average or even slightly above at any level.
Control – B. Smith’s 3.0 career BB/9 falls directly in line with the B grade, as it is simply “good”. Smith throws tons of strikes. He’s a smart pitcher and lives on the outer and inner half of the plate, so you’ll see more walks from more advanced hitters, but Smith has no trouble throwing strikes when needed.
Command – B. Smith’s command of his change up and fastball are both what I’d consider in the “A” grade range. He’s extremely effective in spotting these. His curve ball has great snap to it, but at times it’ll slip and he’ll leave it up in the zone.
Mechanics – A. Picture-perfect mechanics. Nate Smith uses his long frame to generate a longer extension toward the plate. There’s a lot of forward momentum/movement which comes from good push-off with his legs, yet he always seems to land nice and balanced. There is little torque of his shoulder or elbow. Smith has the look of a future workhorse.
OVERALL
Performance – A. You can’t argue with results, and Nate Smith gets them. In his first full year in the minors, he skipped over A Ball and went straight to the hitter-friendly Cal League, where his low 3’s ERA was buoyed by a 2.70 ERA at home, the only neutral setting in the league. His 4.38 ERA on the road was actually above average considering the league. Upon moving up to AA, Smith was now put into a pitching friendly environment, with his home park being perhaps the most friendly to pitchers of all the parks. His 2.52 ERA at home was starkly different than the 3.38 he experienced on the road, though both would indicate he was pretty good no matter where he pitched. His more advanced peripheral stats indicate that the success Smith generated was no fluke, though I must warn fans, he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who hitters have squared up. In the major leagues, these numbers may not hold up.
Projection – D. Smith is what he is at this point, which is a soft-tossing lefty with good off-speed offerings and control. He misses his fair-share of bats because of his ability to deploy off-speed pitches so frequently, but in the majors this likely won’t be the case. Hitters do put the ball in the air against him, and given his lack of velocity, the percentage of balls pulled is unsurprising. If he were a pitcher for the Yanks, Sox or Rockies, I’d say this was a problem, but in more pitching friendly settings, this is actually an advantage. I could see Nate Smith turning into a surprisingly good back-end inning eater for the Angels, and I could just as easily seeing him being bombarded out of AAA should he be sent there.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2016. Nate Smith was very good in AA, and if it were me, I’d keep him as far away from the Pacific Coast League as possible. We don’t need this kid’s confidence shattered like that. I’d expect Smith to repeat in AA, as more of a depth option for the Angels (who have tons of it). In 2016 however, he should push for a spot in a major league rotation.
Grade as a Prospect – C+. He doesn’t have the stuff to wow scouts, but he has the results, and those are what counts. As long as he continues to generate results, I encourage fans to remember Matt Shoemaker and Kole Calhoun, who are living proof that “tools” as scouts describe them can mean little or nothing. What matters is getting the job done, and they do it. Nate Smith did it this past year, and might do it in the major leagues too.
2014 in Review*
Nate Smith is not what one describe as a sexy prospect, but that doesn’t mean he should be overlooked. What he lacks in velocity and eye-popping stuff, he makes up for with command and pitchability. Smith proved himself on the mound in his first full season of professional ball, by keeping walks to a minimum and missing enough bats to prove that he can succeed despite his middling fastball. His performance was so impressive that he jumped all the way up Double-A, got picked for the Arizona Fall League and was even given some consideration for a big league call-up late in the year when the Angels were looking to fill out their injury-ravaged rotation.
It wasn’t a perfect season for Smith though. Command is the core of his game, but he saw a fairly significant spike in his walk rate upon arriving in Arkansas. That’s an indication that more advanced hitters might be able to force him off the plate. Then again, he also saw a major spike in his whiff rate, too. If hitters did figure him out, that didn’t figure him out very well.
Looking Ahead*
Nate Smith is basically the poster boy for why teams with bad farm systems draft college senior pitchers in the middle rounds. He was an eighth round pick in 2013 and now in 2015 is a guy who is going to be on the short list for a call-up to the majors. Part of that is just the general depth of the pitching in the Angels farm system but a lot of that is Smith being a very polished prospect.
He’s not going to project as anything more than a back-of-the-rotation starter, but that is nothing to be ashamed of. Heck, it is impressive enough that he even profiles as a guy who can stick in the rotation, a rarity amongst Angels rotation prospects. Smith’s platoon splits, in an admittedly small sample size, are virtually identical. He also hasn’t shown any dramatic home-road splits, even during his tenure in Arkansas. That bodes very well for Smith’s chances of carving out a career for himself as a #5 starter, if not more.
*As we do every year, the scouting reports and grades are provided by Scotty Allen while Garrett Wilson provides the 2014 in Review and Looking Ahead sections.
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