After just a few weeks on the job as general manager, Billy Eppler has already shored up two pressing needs before Thanksgiving. The blockbuster acquisition for Andrelton Simmons is controversial among Angels fans, but Eppler did turn the shortstop position from a 2017 question mark into surplus value for five seasons. Signing Cliff Pennington will provide the bench with much-needed middle infield depth, and Angel fans have to be giddy at the prospect of not watching a single Taylor Featherston at-bat in 2016.
Yet, neither of those moves plug holes at the Angels’ primary areas of need: second base, third base, and left field. If the Angels can’t bring back David Freese they could hand the reins to Kaleb Cowart and at least assure themselves the defense at the hot corner will be rock solid. Johnny Giavotella isn’t great at second base, but there’s bigger things to worry about than a player that provided 1.1 fWAR in what amounted his first full season as a major leaguer. As for left field, the Angels don’t have many options on the current roster or the minor league system. Fortunately the market for corner outfielders might be the deepest we’ve ever seen, giving Eppler plenty of options to wade through. Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, and Yoenis Cespedes will all surely be upgrades over whatever the hell the 2015 left field situation was, but Eppler can aim higher if he wants. That’s why he should break the bank and sign Jason Heyward.
If you’re privy to the Force, that sound you just heard was that of Angel fans crying out in horror at the idea of spending anything of substance on a corner outfielder. Remember the last three times the Angels acquired a recognizable player to man a corner outfield spot? That would be Vernon Wells, Josh Hamilton, and Matt Joyce. Wells cost a tragically undervalued Mike Napoli that in the years since has crushed the Angels every opportunity he gets, Hamilton cost financial flexibility that will hamper the club for two more seasons, and Joyce cost Kevin Jepsen, who probably would have provided just enough bullpen depth and firepower to push the Angels to the postseason.
I understand the hesitation—spending huge dollars in free agency is almost always foolish. But that’s also because players like Heyward don’t usually hit the open market. Heyward’s biggest selling point is his age, a relatively baby-faced 26 years old compared to the typical run of players in their 30’s we come to expect in free agency. Even if Heyward’s camp commands a 10-year deal, the Angels would be the beneficiaries of his entire prime and can cut bait with him after his age-35 season. That wouldn’t be the Albert Pujols contract, where the Angels missed out on his entire prime and will eat the back end of that contract and pray it’s not sub-replacement level. Heyward could still be a productive player in 10 years. There’s the chance, too, Heyward takes a shorter deal that allows him to reach free agency again in five years, where he can cash in on his career with one more mega-contract.
But enough about that, the money is Arte Moreno’s problem. Moreno has always said he would shatter through the luxury tax ceiling for the right player and it’s hard to think of a more “right” player than Heyward for the Angels. Heyward is the best defensive corner outfielder in the game and he might be the best defensive player, period.* Heyward led all players with 32 defensive runs saved in 2014 and his 22 last season was the fourth most. It would be tough to argue that there’s a better defensive outfield in the game than one featuring Heyward, Mike Trout, and newly-crowned Gold Glove winner Kole Calhoun. Fly-ball pitchers on the staff like Jered Weaver and Hector Santiago will see outs converted on balls in play that previously fell for extra bases. With Heyward in the outfield and Simmons manning the infield, the Angels’ middling 2015 defense suddenly becomes arguably the best in baseball.
* After the Angels acquired Simmons last week lots of analysis of the transaction had to qualify he “might” be the best defensive player in the game. Heyward is a huge reason for that “might.”
Age and defense are the two big selling points for Heyward but he could also easily slot into the lead-off spot for Mike Scioscia, finally solving the seemingly unending riddle of who should bat first for the Angels. Heyward’s career walk rate and OBP are well above average, and while his 27-homer campaign in 2012 looks like a fluke, Heyward’s .146 ISO last season was a welcome bounce back after his concerning .113 mark in 2014. And, again, the guy is only 26. It doesn’t feel like there’s room for him to grow because he’s been around forever, but he’s still young enough to improve in the batter’s box. And even if he doesn’t…so? He has a career .345 wOBA and is more or less a shoo-in for 25-plus doubles and a dozen homers. Oh, and don’t forget he’s one of the best baserunners in the game, something the Angels have been lacking anyway and will miss with Erick Aybar‘s departure. (Simmons rates as below average in his career on the basepaths.) By FanGraphs’ base-running metric, Heyward was seven runs better than average last season, the fifth best in baseball. He has stolen at least 20 bases in three of the last four seasons and has a combined success rate of 86% in 2014 and 2015.
The concern with signing Heyward to a massive deal—it’s expected his deal will approach $200 million—is that his bat won’t provide enough value to make those kind of dollars worth it when his other skills decline. If a club signs Heyward for 10 years but the defense and base running erodes to simply average in five years, what kind of player is he? If we judge by wOBA, then he’s basically 2015 Adam Eaton, a nice player but not the type of hitter a reasonable club will pay $30 million per season. Those are fair concerns, and if the Halos nab Heyward my hope would be that since his defense is so elite that any decline will still be above average, especially if he is only asked to man a corner spot.
If the Angels are going to act like a perpetual win-now team, this is the type of player to sign. Albert Pujols might not be an above average hitter for much longer and the other two franchise cornerstones, Trout and Simmons, are free agents in five years. Trout might end up as the best player of his generation; are the Angels willing to squander that and settle for one unsuccessful playoff berth with him on the roster? The Astros are going to be terrors for a decade, the Rangers will be strong, the Mariners have a savvy GM that wants to see Scioscia and Moreno cry into their cereal, and the A’s gonna A. The AL West is brutal, and now that the Angels traded their prized cow and dutiful rooster to Atlanta the rest of the farm won’t be able to bring back any impact talent via trade. Free agency is Eppler’s only way to improve the roster, and with next year’s free agent class looking dire now is the time to throw the bank at players.
Eppler’s actions in the coming weeks will likely inform us if the Angels consider themselves contenders or if they’re willing to punt 2016 and chalk it up to a rebuilding year. Since there are so many left fielders available, it’ll be disappointing if the Angels don’t land any. The team will be worse off, but the greater distress is watching another year tick off the Mike Trout Free Agency Doomsday Clock. There’s too many holes on the roster for the Angels to survive a competitive AL West if they don’t spend money this winter. If the Angels do sign someone like Upton, it’ll definitely help the 2016 Angels compete and signals they want to make an October push. But if they’re going to spend money and go for it, why settle for the rest when they could have the best?
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