Two things.
I almost never write.
And
Trying to socialite questions for a mailbag article is like pulling teeth.
So to ease myself back into writing, and skipping all unnecessary steps, I’m answering my own questions.
1. Can Ryan Ramczyk realistically start this year?
He might not be able to, but it would be a lot cooler if he did.
Two big things are working against him. For one he’s been rehabbing from a hip injury. He should be a full go for training camp, but he’s already missed valuable practice reps in OTA’s and mini camp. The more obvious factor making him starting less than likely is that he’s a rookie. On top of the unavoidable rookie learning curve, he just so happens to be in one of the most complicated NFL offenses. It’s a tall order.
However he was considered the most technically sound linemen coming out of this years draft, and he did play college ball on the left side. There are ways the team could make life easier for the rookie if they try him on the left side, including tightend help (chipping and blocking) and relying more on the run game, something he excelled at in college.
He was seen as the heir apparent to Zach Strief, but looking at Armstead’s injury history, he could be his if he continues the trend.
I give him a 40% to start the season opener, 90% to start at some point this year.
2. Can Anzalone unseat Robinson and Ellerbe at weak side linebacker?
Another rookie, another question mark. The pick wasn’t popular. Most didn’t know who he was, and then the name, the injury history, the garbage number he picked etc.
All that aside, we need him. We needed linebackers bad, and we collected as many as we could, and we finally got someone competent to coach them.
Anzalone, Robinson and Ellerbe all have the ability to cover in space and hold up well against the run to varying degrees. All three are athletic, and they’ll all be used in different packages (although I have this feeling Ellerbe might be cut before the season), but who gets the most snaps?
The defense has looked completely different in the past when Ellerbe is healthy. He has the range to clean up on the perimeter, cut through blockers on sweeps and screens, as well being an effective blitzer. I haven’t watched a ton of tape on Anzalone, but to me they’re kind of similar players. Obviously the team has liked what Ellerbe has given them on the field, and perhaps they’re trying to secure that for the future with Anzalone.
Robinson isn’t as good against the run as the other two, but he’s available more. Anzalone and Robinson can also play multiple spots at linebacker. If Anzalone picks things up quickly so that the staff feel comfortable with him starting at some point, I can see the team rolling with Robinson and Anzalone on the final 53.
I give him a 50% shot at starting the season opener.
3. Will another 7-9 finish put Payton on the “hot seat?”
It’s not a fun question, but it’s one that deserves attention. Although the staff would never admit it, we’ve been in a rebuild since the end of the 2014 season. Rebuilds usually take 3 years if done right. Looking at last year I think despite some deficiencies at defensive end and guard, the team could have at least been competitive if not for the absolute desolation of the cornerback position.
We’re now entering year 3. We’re also entering the last year of Brees’s contract.
If you’re Brees, do you come back for another year(s) if you missed the playoffs for the 4th consecutive year after performing consistently at a high level?
I think the biggest concern I have from an organizational standpoint is the decline in fan support. The Dome isn’t as full, the crowd isn’t as loud. It’s directly correlated to winning, and another 7-9 season and the fans will go from to depressed to disillusioned.
Not that it’s the wise thing to do, but sometimes organizations clean house and shake things up just to let the fans know they’re doing something.
Legitimately I think if they miss the playoffs again you have to question Payton’s ability as a head coach. As far as an offensive mind he’s tops, but being a head coach is a lot more than play calling.
I give Payton a 60% chance of being fired with another 7-9 finish.
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