Hope continues to spring eternal. After the opening week of the 2014 MLB Season, the Seattle Mariners’ record is 4-2, as they stand atop the American League West. Their 34 runs scored are fourth in the American League, eighth overall. The +16 run differential is the second best in the majors, trailing only the surprising Miami Marlins. And, the team’s slugging percentage is fourth overall at .441.
So, does this mean the Mariners can finally hit? That the run scoring ineptitude of the past is finally over? I, for one, am skeptical. After all, 26 of those 34 runs were scored in the opening three game series against the Los Angeles Angels. The Mariners managed only 8 runs in three games in Oakland, two of them losses. But, to be fair, let’s dig a little deeper and take a look at two of the key players who have disappointed in the past but looked good during this first week.
Justin Smoak
So far in 2014, Justin Smoak is batting .292, with an on base percentage of .370, and a slugging percentage of .625. Compare that to lifetime numbers of .228/.314/.389. So, has anything changed? I don’t think so. We’re just looking at the classic small sample size at the beginning of a season, a meager 24 at bats.
For one thing, Smoak’s strike out rate, even with the small sample size, is about exactly what it’s been throughout his career, roughly once for every three at bats. Smoak had a similar stat line for all of July last year (except for slugging), 289/.372/.470, and then proceeded to decline each of the last two months of the season, .229/.324/.417 in August, and an abysmal .184/.268/.425 in September. The trend last year was down, not up. And unlike, say, Brandon Belt of the San Francisco Giants over in the National League, there doesn’t seem to be any kind of new approach at the plate on Smoak’s part.
I am cautiously optimistic that Smoak can improve over his lifetime numbers, slightly. ZiPS (U) projects Smoak out at .240/.326/.424 to produce a WAR (wins against replacement) of about 1.2, mostly based on defense, or essentially below an everyday player, especially for first base.
Despite the hot start by Smoak, ultimately, first base is a position the Mariners are going to need to upgrade in order to contend. And, oh, by the way, Kendrys Morales is still a free agent.
Dustin Ackley
Dustin Ackley is also off to a nice start, hitting .292, .346 OBP, and slugging .542. He’s even homered once and stolen a base. But there’s really nothing in Ackley’s career numbers to suggest he has anywhere remotely near the power to occupy a corner outfield position in a majors.
I know. I know. There are players like Brett Gardner of the New York Yankees who add value to their teams without much power. The difference is that Gardner steals bases, runs the bases well, and is a plus, plus defender. Ackley has only stolen 21 bases in 1,234 at bats, and eleven of those came in 2011. And while he was an OK defender at 2B, that’s probably not going to be the case in LF.
ZiPS (U) projects Ackley for 2014 with a stat line of .255/.328/.377 for a WAR of 1.9, just a tick below an everyday player. When he was at 2B, this would be acceptable production, as he might hit 10 or so HR’s and steal 10 or so bases. But as an OFer, this also appears to be a position the Mariners will ultimately need to upgrade.
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