Are Lefty Specialists Integral To Our Success?

Evan here taking over for Zach while he attempts to get his internet back up. Here’s hoping he gets it up soon!
Sam Killay recently e-mailed me some thoughts, and I was to reply via e-mail, then Zach’s plea for help came across the wire, so I figured I’d reply to Sam’s questions here, so that maybe you all can offer some additional insight. Here’s the text of Sam’s question:
Do you read anything into Boston’s lack of a true lefty specialist this year?
I’ve been thinking a little bit about that. I see it at as one of two things.
One, it’s a tacit admission by management that the Red Sox won’t contend this year. Because in this division, with 3 ballparks that favor lefty hitters (The Stadium, Camden, and The Trop, to varying degrees), it’s an absolute necessity to have a clampdown lefty in the pen. Because there are invariably going to be tough lefty outs to get in tight divisional games, the games that matter down the stretch. Especially on the Yankees, where the necessity is more pronounced because a) their ballpark favors lefty hitters to such an extreme degree and b) consequently, they always have several big lefty bats in the heart of their order. Always. So in this scenario, if we’re going without a proven LOOGY, we must be running up the white flag. And this bit of trivia becomes even more perplexing when you consider that we only had to re-up Myers, who was so effective against lefties — and still pretty durned cheap.
Two, it’s possible that, with space on our roster already tight, the BrainTrust saw no need for a roster-consuming LOOGY type because they feel certain that they already have an in-house option to get those critical late lefty outs. And that option would be Keith Foulke — and his amazing technicolor changeup, by virtue of which Foulke has historically been devastating against lefty hitters.
This has me intrigued. Any thoughts?
First, here are the career righty/lefty splits of everyone in our bullpen as currently constructed, followed by darkhorse candidates Lenny DiNardo, Craig Breslow, and aforemented former Sox Mike Myers.
BRONSON ARROYO
v. RHP: 303.1 IP, 1.21 WHIP, .249 BAA
v. LHP: 285.0 IP, 1.53 WHIP, .284 BAA
CRAIG BRESLOW
v. RHP: 10.2 IP, 2.06 WHIP, .298 BAA
v. LHP: 5.2 IP, 1.06 WHIP, .063 BAA
LENNY DINARDO
v. RHP: 13.1 IP, 1.73 WHIP, .296 BAA
v. LHP: 29.0 IP, 1.41 WHIP, .270 BAA
KEITH FOULKE
v. RHP: 346.2 IP, 1.15 WHIP, .226 BAA
v. LHP: 346.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, .212 BAA
MIKE MYERS
v. RHP: 198.2 IP, 1.82 WHIP, .312 BAA
v. LHP: 258.0 IP, 1.16 WHIP, .207 BAA
JONATHAN PAPELBON
v. RHP: 17.1 IP, 1.56 WHIP, .319 BAA
v. LHP: 16.2 IP, 1.38 WHIP, .190 BAA
DAVID RISKE
v. RHP: 177.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP, .244 BAA
v. LHP: 140.0 IP, 1.28 WHIP, .205 BAA
RUDY SEANEZ
v. RHP: 225.1 IP, 1.28 WHIP, .220 BAA
v. LHP: 168.1 IP, 1.51 WHIP, .248 BAA
JULIAN TAVAREZ
v. RHP: 652.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP, .261 BAA
v. LHP: 429.0 IP, 1.79 WHIP, .309 BAA
MIKE TIMLIN
v. RHP: 589.0 IP, 1.14 WHIP, .233 BAA
v. LHP: 446.2 IP, 1.44 WHIP, .275 BAA
What have I learned so far?
Keep Julian Tavarez far, far, far, far, far, far, far away from lefties. Actually, a little further than that.
Our bullpen as currently constructed, is not exactly a lefty-killing ballclub. Arroyo, Timlin, and Seanez are middling against lefties, while only David Riske can be assured of having any effectiveness against lefties. Papelbon and Breslow (especially Breslow) have some very intriguing splits. Alas, these splits must be taken with a grain of salt because of the unfortunate aspect of “small sample size”. (An aside: I find it interesting to say the least that we can call one bad month of ~100 AB by a player meaningless because of small sample size, yet that 100 AB represents an entire year for a high school player and can mean the difference between the 1st and the 50th round.)
Now, you will mention that I did not include Keith Foulke in the above.
That’s because he’s our closer. Whether or not he succeeds at closing is a different story entirely, but nonetheless, he is entering the season as our closer. That means he’s going to face righties and lefties. He’s not going to come in with men on second and third in the bottom seventh to get Hideki Matsui out. That’s going to fall to one of our new relievers.
Whether or not that’s a good thing or not (“a tacit admission by management that the Red Sox won’t contend this year”) is quite up for grabs. I remember speaking with Andrew about this very issue – lefty specialists – during the 2005 season. Andrew is not a proponent of lefty specialists, while I am. He made the point that while he would certainly take Mike Myers and John Wasdin over two John Wasdins, he would not take Myers and Wasdin over two average relievers. Meaning that a good lefty specialist and a terrible reliever is in actuality, worse than two average relievers.
A good lefty specialist can only be held back for just that – good lefties. A terrible reliever is not, and gets more innings than a good lefty specialist.
Let’s compare 2005 seasons.
MIKE MYERS 2005:
v. RHP: 8.2 IP, 2.65 WHIP, .385 BAA
v. LHP: 28.1 IP, 0.70 WHIP, .158 BAA
GREG AQUINO (the 2005 version of Wasdin) 2005:
v. RHP: 18.1 IP, 1.91 WHIP, .329 BAA
v. LHP: 13.0 IP, 1.85 WHIP, .304 BAA
So basically, that’s one and a half pitchers of terrible relieving, a half good relieving. Is that better than two average pitchers? Think about the scenarios. Bottom seventh, second and third, two out, Matsui at the plate. Myers is enticing. But what about all the other (more common) occurences? Myers sat on the bench while we just threw fire on the gasoline because we had no one else better.
Let’s assume Keith Foulke fails as a closer, as Baseball Prospects 2006 forecasts he will. (I recieved this book yesterday in the mail. I’ll be sharing with you some tidbits from their forecasts in a later column. Some forecasts are surprising, much like Foulke’s. Off the top of my head, I believe they forecast Foulke for a 4.30 ERA.)
Let’s assume he fails as a closer. He would become a reliever, then yes – he could become our lefty-killer.
But again, he’s going to start the season as our closer, so we can’t depend on him to come in and get lefties out early in the ballgame when needed. The question is if we truly, utterly NEED this lefty reliever to sit around in the bullpen and throw a grand total of 85 outs against lefties.
I’ll be honest:
I don’t know.
I don’t know whether or not it’s needed. I don’t know if this is an admission that we won’t compete. I don’t know if we can compete without one, or if we can compete with one. If we can’t, and Breslow is exhibiting the same splits in Triple-A, we’ve got a nice fix – call Breslow up. It’s simple, and this is called “covering your bases”. Ditto Lenny DiNardo – he falls in the same category. (Unfortunately, there are no Triple-A splits available – that would be tremendously helpful.)
What I do know is that we’re about to find out whether or not we can succeed without one – in less than a month.
(PSST – If you’re not following the World Baseball Classic, you are missing out. Big time.)