The Philadelphia Phillies currently sit in second place in the National League East, with a fairly impressive 22-15 record. Their record is a product of timely hitting and impressive pitching from top to bottom. This has many fans wondering if this team has what it takes to make an unlikely run from the bottom of the league to the playoffs in just one season.
The Man in Charge
It appears that first year general manager Matt Klentak has made all of the right moves. Klentak was tasked with rebuilding a depleted farm system that would eventually replenish an old and struggling roster.
His most notable move so far is the trade that sent electrifying reliever Ken Giles to the Houston Astros for a group of pitchers highlighted by Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, and Brett Oberholtzer.
The Kids
Appel is a former first overall pick who has yet to impress during his minor league career He has several quality offerings and good velocity, which make him a coveted asset to a rebuilding team. He will continue to work with pitching coaches to put it all together. He is projected to be a middle to end of the rotation starter at some point.
So far, Vincent Velasquez has been phenomenal. When he was traded to Philadelphia, it was initially believed he would find a home in the bullpen, but he said that he was here to complete for a starting role, and he got his wish.
He has an absurd, high 90’s fastball and has been giving major league hitters fits with several of his off-speed pitches. Through 7 starts, Velasquez sports an impressive 4-1 record, a 2.70 ERA, and a 0.992 ERA that ranks 11th best in all of baseball. His pitch quality is easily observable through his 10.18 K/9, which ranks 14th among qualified starting pitchers. Velasquez threw nine shutouts innings against the San Diego Padres, allowing three hits and striking out 16 batters in the best outing of his young career.
Oberholtzer, a Christiana, Delaware native was a throw-in from Houston. He made the ‘big club’ out of spring training and joined a bullpen that struggled to begin the season. He has posted pedestrian numbers in a limited role, and is unlikely to receive many additional opportunities as long as others continue to get the job done. He has appeared in only three games in the month of May.
Klentak and the Phillies were also wise to allow key prospects J.P. Crawford, Jake Thompson, and Nick Williams to gain additional minor league experience, as the young kids could be negatively impacted by early failures at the big league level.
Crawford is said to be nearing a promotion to AAA-Lehigh Valley, where he could be swiftly moved to the majors if he continues to impress. Many predict he will see Citizens Bank Park by September of this year. He is considered an above average bat with excellent defensive abilities, which places him behind only pitchers Lucas Giolito and Julio Urias on MLB.com’s 2016 Prospect Watch list.
While it will certainly be exciting to see Crawford playing shortstop in Philadelphia in the near future, don’t expect him to come alone.
Nick Williams came to the Phillies in the Cole Hamels trade, and brought a strong bat with him. The corner outfielder looks to provide pop in a lineup that has been seemingly lacking power in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.
Finally, Jake Thompson. The pitcher was the prize of the Hamels trade, and may buy himself more time in Lehigh Valley due to the early success of the Phillies starters. It would not make sense to bring him up to let him sit in the bullpen. Thompson’s best pitch is his slider, which is highly regarded by scouts. He also has an above average, low-mid 90’s fastball that he locates reasonably well.
While the future is certainly bright, don’t ignore what is going on with this team right now.
The Arms
Former LSU pitcher Aaron Nola appears to be every single thing Phillies scouts thought he was when they pleaded for the team to take him with the number seven pick in the 2014 draft. His command is as advertised, but the quality of his pitches appears to be better than expected. While he was originally projected to be a strong number-two starter, he has looked every part of an ace since joining the team last year.
Since getting the Opening Day nod over Nola, Jeremy Hellickson has also been impressive. Coming to the team through free agency, the former Rays and Dbacks pitcher has been what the team has expected. He has kept the Phillies in most games, and has an ERA that is lower than he had posted in each of his last three seasons. On a contending team, Hellickson is likely a high-end number four or five starter, but he is making the most of his opportunity to be at the top of a rotation that is being rebuilt, and could be rewarded with an extension if the price is right. He is currently on the books for $7 million.
Adam Morgan has also been impressive in his short stint with the team this year, after he failed to secure a roster spot in Clearwater. He has shown confidence in each of his pitches and command that made him the obvious choice for replacing an injured Charlie Morton, who is out for the year after suffering a torn hamstring (ouch).
Fifth pitcher Jerad Eickhoff has been a fairly reliable fifth starter behind Nola, Eickhoff, Velasquez, and Morgan. Since coming to the Phillies in the Hamels trade, the 25-year-old pitcher has shown the ability to get hitters out with both contact and by missing bats. While his ceiling may not be extremely high, he’s a reasonably priced arm that can potentially be moved to the bullpen when higher quality starters are available.
While the starting pitchers have done most of the heavy lifting, they have been supported by a bullpen that has opened eyes recently. Pitchers Andrew Bailey, Hector Neris, and Jeanmar Gomez have led the way.
Bailey, a one time All Star who has suffered several injuries over the past few years has been solid in his year of redemption. He is playing for a contract extension with either the Phillies or another club. Bullpen arms can come without paying a premium, so if the team does not find a deal they believe is a good value, they would be wise to move him at the trade deadline.
Neris and Gomez have become one of the most impressive combinations in the 8th and 9th inning in all of baseball. With a combined $1.9 million in salary, each may also be considered valuable trade deadline pieces should the right offer present itself. While Neris is under team control for another two years, Gomez will be up for an extension after this season, making him a potential rental player for a contending need that needs help in the bullpen.
Jeanmar Gomez has been nearly perfect this year, recording a league high 14 saves in 15 opportunities.
The Bats
It was no secret that the 2016 Phillies were going to struggle at the plate. They currently rank 27/30 in total offense, and it’s likely to stay this way until help arrives in the form of capable prospects.
Odubel Herrera, an impressive player that was selected by the team in the 2015 ‘Rule 5’ Draft, leads the team in most offensive categories. He is the current leader in batting average (BA), hits (H), runs (R), on base percentage (OBP), and walks (BB). His ability to make consistent contact has him batting leadoff. However, he is still a raw, young player and has made mental mistakes at times in the batters box and running the bases
Future star third basemen Maikel Franco has been in a bit of a funk recently, but still provides the most pop of any player in the lineup. He leads the team in runs batted in (RBI), and has a secure spot in the 3-hole each and every day. With the addition of Tommy Joseph, it’s probably safe to say he will also lead the team in home runs as Ryan Howard sees less playing time.
In the Field
While they’ve struggled at the plate, the Phillies are an improved defensive team. They are still not a premier defensive team by any stretch, as they were during their streak of winning seasons, but they are making progress. They are ranked 20th in team defense, but have risen seven spots since last season.
Franco looks to be a Gold Glove caliber third basemen who can make jaw-dropping plays at the hot corner. He also possesses a strong arm and surprising range. He has been compared to Texas Rangers star Adrian Beltre, who has been consistently a top player in the league over the past decade, appearing in four All Star games, and winning four Gold Gloves and Silver Slugger awards.
While not contributing much at the plate, corner outfielders Tyler Goeddel and Peter Bourjos can run down balls with the best of them. With impressive foot speed, they are able to reach most balls that Herrera cannot from his center field position. Each has made some quality plays that have allowed the team to lead the league in single run wins.
Freddy Galvis continues to provide reliable defense at shortstop as well, which has always been the best part of his game.
What’s Next
The team has shown that solid pitching backed up by timely hitting can result in a team that is above average, but the questions remain:
Do the Phillies actually have pitching that is as good as what they’ve shown? Will their hitting improve?
To answer the first question, I believe that their pitching can be this good. I’m just not sure it will continue this year.
Nola will continue to be solid, but may not dominate at the level he has. I say this because the Phillies have not exactly been tested yet this year. He has dominated weaker teams such as Cincinnati, San Diego, and Milwaukee, but his numbers are not nearly as stellar against stiffer competition. In 12 innings across 2 starts against the first place Nationals, he surrendered eight runs, four walks, and threw 157 pitches. At only 22 years old, Nola will only get better as time goes on.
I don’t think Velasquez will continue to dominate into August and September. This is his first extended stint in the big leagues as a starting pitcher, and he is catching teams that had not seen him in during his time in the American League by surprise. They won’t be surprised for long, and will force him to adjust his game, which will take time. Just because he won’t have a sub 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective pitcher. He appears to have the physical makeup of a future ace, but his mental toughness will be questioned as the season continues on. It should be fun to watch him develop in this young rotation.
Hellickson, Morgan, Eickhoff, and the bullpen all appear to be in the same boat. They’re capable players who have average stuff who will do their best to secure their own futures. They are essentially placeholders at this point, until they show significant improvement or more talented prospects make the jump to Philadelphia.
If I had to pick one of those to stick with the team, I would pick Hellickson. Once a highly regarded prospect in the Tampa Bay farm system he has the best ‘stuff’ of the group. With their ceilings being equal, he is the most durable and has the most experience, which are all very important for end of the rotation pitchers. The only potential issue I see is that the team may look for a cheaper alternative if he shows that he truly is a ‘4’ or ‘5’.
The offense is going to continue to struggle. There’s no other possible outcome, unless we see several prospects called up who take the league by storm. They simply do not have the offensive talent to win on a regular basis.
With only two hitters who appear to be regulars in MLB lineups, they will struggle to score runs fairly regularly.
The Prediction
This team is not ‘for real’ in the sense that their success will continue.
They have too many inexperienced players who will not be able to keep up when veteran teams around the league elevate their play in the upcoming warmer months.
That’s not to say they don’t have some good players on this team right now, because they do. Klentak appears to be building this team from the mound, which is a good way to go, as shown by teams like the New York Mets and Nationals, who will finish above them in the NL East.
Franco and Hererra provide a glimmer of offensive hope for a team who is waiting for young, capable bats to provide run support.
Enjoy this while it lasts, Phillies fans. This team will remain watchable even throughout the remainder of the rebuild due to what is coming in the future.
You will still get to see Nola and Velasquez every fifth day and Franco hit second deck home runs. Veterans Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz will continue their ‘farewell tours’ and remind us of the fun we had for years as one of the premier teams in all of sports.
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