Are the Pittsburgh Pirates relying too heavily on prospects?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a lackluster offseason according to many. Is this partly due to the fact that the team is relying too much on the success of their farm system?

We know the story of the Pirates by now: they’re a small market team that can’t afford the big name free agent acquisitions, so they use their farm system as the primary means to fill their roster. They also have to make savvy trades and smart signings; a failed trade or signing could set the organization back tremendously.

So, like it or not, the Pirates have had to build from within. This upcoming season is no different. The Pirates have the potential to graduate four major prospects to the majors this season: Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, Alen Hanson, and Josh Bell. Each has the upside of a legitimate major league starter. If each pans out, the Pirates would have four roster spots going to players on rookie contracts. That’s highly beneficial to a team like the Pirates. Count those four along with other rookie contracts and players entering arbitration, and that’s not only good for business, but it allots the team more money to put towards contract extensions and free agents. Thus, it’s beneficial on many different levels for a team to try to use its farm system as its primary resource for players.

But at the end of the day, not all prospects work out. Pirates’ fans know that as well as any. Even the top picks in the draft and the biggest international signees fail at times. There’s a good chance that out of the aforementioned four prospects, only one will turn into a star, and if two turn out to be major league regulars, that would be better than the odds would point to. For the Pirates, can they afford for two of these players to not work out? Especially considering the lack of moves the team has used to address the starting rotation and first base this offseason? Overall, and this upcoming season in particular, are the Pirates relying too heavily on their prospects?

That’s a fair question to ask. The vast majority of prospects don’t work out. And these four prospects, along with the top talent for the Pirates in their lower minor league levels, definitely have some sort of an impact on the front office’s plans for this offseason. Ryan Vogelsong, for example, might have been signed as a starter to hold a place in the rotation just until Glasnow arrives. Vogelsong has had arguably just one or two good seasons in the majors in his career, and there are plenty of other better options to fill a rotation spot. But the Pirates are hoping they won’t need Vogelsong for long, as they’re counting on Glasnow to take over immediately and improve upon his spot.

With Jung Ho Kang‘s recovery time not an exact science, the Pirates may also turn to Alen Hanson to start in the infield on Opening Day, as Josh Harrison would have to play third base. Hanson has fallen off some as a prospect, and he still has defensive issues at second base. He doesn’t have as much upside as some of the other prospects I mentioned, and he could very well end up being nothing more than a utility or bench player.

But next to Glasnow, one of the biggest cogs of the future of the Pirates lies with Josh Bell. We know the Pirates let Pedro Alvarez go, and we know the first base free agent market is thin at best. Mike Morse and Jason Rogers are currently the best options the team has at first base next season; that’s not ideal to say the least. Maybe the team doesn’t want to trade away prospects for someone like Mitch Moreland and would rather play have a season with Morse and Rogers until Bell arrives.

This has led to the belief that 2016 is a throw-away year for the Pirates, or that they’re waiting until these big name prospects arrive and don’t feel the need to add to the team in 2016 because of that fact. That’s a big risk to take. What if these prospects don’t work out? Then the Pirates just wasted one or two or multiple years. It’s one thing to hope that a prospect or two work out. But counting on most or all of them is a dangerous game. Let’s say the team chooses not to extend Andrew McCutchen, and instead chooses to go with Austin Meadows in center field, who doesn’t work out. We know how the fan base will react to that.

I don’t know Neal Huntington or the team’s plans. I could be off base. But in some way, shape, or form, the Pittsburgh Pirates are counting on at least some of these prospects working out. Let’s hope they’re not counting on all of them.

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