The last time the Seattle Seahawks invested a high (second-round) draft pick on a running back was in 2013, when they selected Christine Michael out of Texas A&M with what was their first selection in that draft. That’s par for the course in Seattle. To uncover the last time the Seahawks invested that high of a pick on a running back, you have to go back to the 2002 draft when the Seahawks picked Maurice Morris in the second round.
Despite the entire Seahawks running backs corps being on essentially year-to-year tenures remaining in their likely Seahawks livelihoods, do not expect Seattle to drop a high pick on a running back again in the 2015 draft. It begs the question: If there is no long-term solution at running back, why not bring a rent-a-player veteran? The wheeling-and-dealing Seahawks may just do that if one of the predicted three fails to step up.
Same-same
The changing-of-the-guard in the 2014 Seattle Seahawks running back room never happened. Despite not keeping a running back among their 2014 draft selections, the Seahawks felt fully stocked at the position with one of the league’s best (Marshawn Lynch) at the top of their running back list and two young, primed-for-breakouts ball carriers in Michael and Robert Turbin.
Once again, the youngsters failed to make much of an impact in place of the inestimable Lynch, who had arguably his best season ever at the age of 28 when you factor both rushing and receiving.
The ascendancy that wasn’t brings the Seahawks full circle now that we’re just a few days away from the 2015 NFL draft. What’s changed in the past year and how might the Seahawks approach things differently?
Seattle’s investment in running backs (to be fair — a strategy shared by many other teams in today’s NFL) is plan A) import from elsewhere (Lynch, Michael Robinson) and B) take a mid-round or later flyer on a draft pick Kiero Small (2014, seventh round), Spencer Ware (2013, sixth round), Turbin (2012, fourth round).
Always look on the bright side of running backs
Depending on how you look at it, it’s worked out just fine, thank you (two Super Bowls, largely courtesy of Beast Mode), or it leaves the cupboard precariously thin with one aging veteran and either no production (Small, Robinson, Ware) or next-to-nothing production from the remaining role players.
Those two Super Bowl runs are in the past, however, and the Seahawks find themselves exactly where they were one year ago with respect to their running backs — with two exceptions. One, Lynch is another year older and at the point in his career where drop-off is expected. He defied the odds last year and the Seahawks are counting on him even more in 2015 to defy the odds again — Lynch’s 2015 earnings will total $12 million, including a $7.5 million signing bonus and $4.5 million base salary. That’s a huge increase for a running back with as many career carries as Lynch.
Wise? Foolish? Time will tell, but the Seahawks guessed right last year when they buckled to Lynch’s demands for a sweeter 2014 deal.
Two, there may be real signs of improvement from Lynch’s understudies, Turbin and Michael. Both heir apparents / not apparents / again apparents improved in yards per carry in their scant 2014 appearances over their 2013 outputs. Michael bested his 2013 output of 18 carries for 4.4 yards per carry, with a 2014 showing of 34 carries at (a stellar) 5.1 yards per carry. Turbin went from 77 carries for 3.4 yards per carry in 2013, to 74 carries for 4.2 yards per carry in 2014.
Both are signs of encouragement, if not examples of great production. You could do far worse than handing the running duties off two a couple of runners that can get you 4.2 and 5.1 yards per carry. You can also do far better than 19.4 yards per game (Turbin) and 17.5 yards per game (Michael). Neither scored a rushing touchdown last year, although Turbin netted two receiving touchdowns.
It may be simply a matter of opportunity for either or both running backs. But it’s 2014 all over again. With Lynch back in the fold, they are as unlikely to get opportunities in 2015 as they were in 2014 — especially with the king’s ransom just reinvested in Lynch for the coming season.
What, me worry?
Which leaves the otherwise draft-and-develop Seahawks in a less-than-ideal position: no future at running back beyond 2015. Lynch is a threat to retire, hit the wall or his cost will otherwise grossly outweigh his production. Turbin’s contract ends this year. Michael is signed through 2016, but with a third season of little production will the Seahawks view him as the heir apparent, if they retain him at all?
The Seahawks are unlikely both from a philosophical/historical standpoint and a prioritized needs standpoint to invest a high (second- or third-round) draft pick on another runner. If there is to be a new face or two in the 2015 Seahawks’ running backs room, he’ll be a not-highly-regarded draft pick or a veteran cast-off.
Odds are the Seahawks will go into 2015 with the same running backs they finished 2014 with. Imagine the 2016 Seattle Seahawks with three entirely new running backs on the roster. Seahawks fans may need to prepare for just that.
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