Welcome to the 2015 version of the Los Angeles Angels. I’ll bet most of the fans coming into this season didn’t expect to see the Angels offense be the team’s largest question mark. Or, in all actuality, it’s only question mark. It’s crazy, right? It is borderline absurd even that of all the things that fans have come to complain about over the last few years, the offense hasn’t really been one of them. Sure, the Angels go through their slumps, but so does every other team. They eventually pull themselves out of whatever funk that they are mired in and get back to hitting well.
Well, as it stands, the Angels are a month and a half into the season, and still haven’t quite figured out how to hit on a regular basis.
The team’s pitching has been phenomenal. The Angels team ERA is currently seventh best in all of baseball and, wait for it, the third best in the American League. Bet you didn’t see that one coming, did you? Yet, even with this amazing pitching staff (apparently), the Angels still find themselves treading water near the .500 mark. This, of course, is where the offensive offense comes into play. Here is a quick rundown of where the Angels stand in the American League in a few offensive categories:
WAR – 14th
Batting Average – 14th
Slugging – Dead last
OBP – Dead last
Woof. That’s not exactly encouraging. Obviously this means that the Angels need to start wheeling and dealing on the trade market. They need fresh blood, man. Mike Trout and his crime fighting sidekick Kole Calhoun can’t do everything. This needs to be more like the Avengers and less like a typical night in Gotham. More like the X-Men and less like Superman swooping in to save the day. More like…well, you get the point. The Angels can’t just depend on one player to carry them to the promised land.
But what kind of ramifications would a trade have on the Angels? Who could they realistically bring in to jump start their floundering offense? What would they have to give up? As a self-proclaimed prospect hoarder, I have a tough time giving up any prospects in a trade. Even the Huston Street deal still kind of bothers me because I didn’t want to see the Angels give up Taylor Lindsey. But, in my opinion, The Angels have production waiting to happen, and they don’t actually have to give anything up to make that happen. Case in point, here are a few players who are downright awful at the moment, but who aren’t nearly as bad as their current numbers would lead you to believe.
Let’s start with some career average OPS numbers shall we. .758, .638 and .766. Now, on their faces, those numbers aren’t overly exceptional. In fact, they are painfully average, but here are the OPS numbers for this season that coincide with those specific players: .500, .562, and .414. Pretty terrible, right? Those numbers belong to Chris Iannetta, Collin Cowgill and Matt Joyce, respectively. Cowgill has been almost serviceable this year, but is still producing below his career averages. Joyce on the other hand is OPS-ing 367 points below his career average, and Iannetta is 258 points below his norm. Kind of makes you want to trade each one of them to an Independent League team whose home games are played somewhere in Outer Siberia. But, what if these guys simply progressed to the mean?
Almost any trade scenario that I can imagine would involve one of either Sean Newcomb, Andrew Heaney or Nick Tropeano. AKA, the entirety of the Angels pitching depth in the Minor Leagues plus a possible future ace, especially if the Angels are targeting a premium top flight hitter. Jerry Dipoto might be able to live with himself if he were to ship one of these guys off for offensive help, but I would end up like Lady Macbeth, unable to wash the blood from my hands. These players are not Jeff Mathis, they do not possess career numbers that display years of ineptitude. They are baseball players who have been average to sometimes good hitters. Hastily replacing them is not the answer. At least, that is what I think. What do you think, Nate?
Nate:
I think you have much more faith in the regression gods than I do. Sure, all three guys could turn things around and end up with respectable numbers by September, but what if only one of them does? Or even two? As much as we may want to believe that guys off to slow starts will eventually right the ship, there’s no guarantee they’ll get back to average. Unlike the players, regression isn’t beholden to the arbitrary endpoint of the 162-game season. I don’t doubt that Chris Iannetta and Matt Joyce will improve on their combined 72 OPS+, but what if they don’t come all the way back to their career norms until sometime next June, when they’re playing for other teams? Is that a risk Jerry Dipoto can afford to take?
I don’t think so. Because even if Iannetta and Joyce bounce back, there are still massive holes in the Angels offense. As much as I love me some Johnny Giavotella, I highly doubt he’ll be able to sustain his early success over a full season, and Grant Green, Josh Rutledge, and Taylor Featherston don’t inspire much confidence as keystone replacements. More pressing, though, is that the Angels currently boast an AL-worst .570 OPS from the DH spot, and the only reason it’s not lower is because David Freese and Albert Pujols have gone 13-for-41 (.317) in limited time at the position. C.J. Cron has been abysmal (.523 OPS) thus far and, unlike Iannetta/Joyce, lacks the track record needed to put any trust in a turnaround. Cron was solid in his first two months in Anaheim, but once pitchers realized he couldn’t distinguish a strike from a hole in the ground, he’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball. Over his last 60 games with the Halos, going back to last July, Cron is a .202/.230/.295 hitter with just three home runs and six walks. He and Marc Krauss just aren’t going to cut it.
Another big factor is that Dipoto’s again on the wobbly chair. If the Angels don’t reach the postseason, there’s a very real possibility that Arte Moreno won’t pick up his option for 2016. Dipoto seems to be highly aware of this, as his offseason moves (even before the Josh Hamilton fiasco) hinted that the team was stocking up on arms and money in case the club needed a bat midseason to help either keep them in contention or push them over the top. If adding to the offense has been part of the plan all along, don’t they have even more of an incentive to do so now?
I agree that trading guys like Sean Newcomb and Andrew Heaney would suck, but who said that they’re the ones who have to be traded? Why not deal high on Hector Santiago or C.J. Wilson and fill the open rotation spot with Heaney (after June 2, of course)? Surely some team (Brewers?) would be enticed by the possibility of adding a veteran arm.
Mike:
I am glad that we can agree at least on the fact that dealing either of Heaney or Newcomb would be a mistake. Especially with the fast track that the Angels seem to have Newcomb on. But that leaves us with hardly any other legitimate trade chips in the minors. The only other real enticing pieces that the Angels could dangle would be players like Kyle Kubitza or Alex Yarbrough. Both of whom seem to a part of the Angels long-term plans since players like Green, Featherstone and Giavotella are either uninspiring or are playing way over their head. And sure, you could put players like Santiago and Wilson on the block, but even with Wilson pitching well this season, what team is going to jump at the chance to add his Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde routine to their roster?
Sure, maybe the Brewers could be talked into taking on Wilson. Doug Melvin isn’t exactly the best General Manager in all of baseball. But with their season circling the drain as early as the second of week of April this season, I’d see them as being more inclined to be selling come July. Probably trying to dump players like Matt Garza and maybe even trying to cash in on what little marketability that Ryan Braun has left. Their M.O. won’t be to get older, it will be to retool with younger players.
But aside from the Brewers and their ineptitude, Wilson isn’t the kind of player who will bring back a stud offensive player. He’s the kind of player that will bring back a comparable contract with comparable abilities from an offensive standpoint. Hector Santiago on the other hand could possibly net a decent player in return, but then you are chipping away at the pitching depth that the Angels have lacked over the last few years. Depth that I would hate to see burned on a bit player whose offensive numbers could very easily not translate to the pitcher friendly environment at the Big-A.
Nate:
All very strong points. I still think a trade’s gotta happen though, frightening as it might be. Depending on your projection system of choice, the Angels’ playoff odds have dipped between 11-19 percentage points since opening day. If you believe the doomsday scenario over at FanGraphs, which is weighted using 2015 stats, the Halos now have just a 40% chance of making the postseason. How much lower are you willing to let those odds slide in the hope that the offense can fix itself? Because I’m not willing to let it drop any further. If they’re going to act, I think they have to act now.
And if that means trading someone like Hector Santiago, the Halos have more than enough organizational pitching depth to make up for the loss. Not only are Heaney, Newcomb, and Nick Tropeano waiting in the wings, but there’s also Tyler DeLoach, Nate Smith, Victor Alcantara, Jeremy Rhoades, Chris Ellis, Kyle McGowin, Joe Gatto, Jake Jewell, Jordan Kipper, and Austin Wood down on the farm. Only a few of those latter guys project to be more than back-end arms, but the depth is there to at least make a deal palatable, which you can absolutely not say about their position-player depth. And, hey, maybe a few of those lower-tier arms can get grouped into a deal instead?
The Angels don’t need to make another Mark Teixeira or Zack Greinke trade to fix the offense, they just need someone who can stabilize things. Basically, someone whose presence will keep the bottom of the lineup from being a black hole of sub-replacement performance. Someone like, say, Gerardo Parra? Adam Lind? Justin Morneau, perhaps? I dunno who exactly, but it needs to be someone. (Preferably not Ben Revere.)
Mike:
It’s funny how I agree with you that a trade will happen at some point this season. Hell, it could happen within the next week if this team keeps hitting the way that it has been. But we have seen these kind of Mike Scioscia-led teams before, that win a metric butt-ton of low scoring affairs. The 2008 Angels that won 100 games outplayed their Pythagorean win-loss record by 12 games, winning a majority of those games thanks to above average starting pitching and a lockdown bullpen. Teams can win if they don’t score a ton of runs. It’s just easier when you score a ton of runs.
I like sitting and waiting, it’s what I do best. Plus, Baseball Prospectus still has the Angels at a 59.1% chance of making the playoffs, which is better than the Astros (and that is such a weird sentence to write) and fifth-highest at BP. Those odds aren’t too shabby.
Will they make a move? Almost assuredly. Does it make sense to make a move? Probably. Will I hate that move? Most likely. As noted earlier, I am a prospect hoarder. I love those little guys on the farm like puppies. And the options that are available (i.e. Lind, Morneau) are not the kind of options that I feel secure about if they were to be brought into Anaheim and told to fight the marine layer. Everyone is screaming for more power. Well, power is great, but power goes to die in Anaheim. Maybe what everyone should be screaming for is a higher BABIP.
Which means the Angels probably should make a trade then, shouldn’t they? Damnit.
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