Arguments using NBA Stats partially define the Timberwolves playoff chances

Dear Timberwolves fans,

Brian Sampson’s going to ruffle your feathers:

https://twitter.com/Brianball0/status/880557669781733376

… On the day Jimmy Butler was introduced to Timberwolves fans.

Coincidence? 😉

Nah, all kidding aside. Brian’s not stoking the flames.

(I know what it was like to be in his shoes. I used to be the site expert for Dunking With Wolves, but life got in the way)

(Congrats to Brian, by the way. He’s doing admirable work)

Alright, so Brian made his argument by incorporating NBA Stats from last seasons.

I can appreciate someone who uses stats to back his claims. I do so once in a while.

Here’s the thing: I get NBA stats, but it is not my cup of tea.

For Brian, it is. He’s also a part of the first cohort for NBA Math.

(Don’t believe me, ask him)

(Congrats man!)

Alright, I’m done with my snack. Let’s get to the main course: let’s paraphrase some of the things that stood out to me.

WARNING: If I took anything you said out of context Brian, please let me know.

(Either way, I feel like my reactions would be the same, which is the bigger focus)

Anyways, you ready? Let’s go:

Brian: Timberwolves lack depth, which is the main problem:

Wiggins and Towns were first and second respectively in total minutes played in the NBA last season. Heck, Dieng even came in at 20th.

The Towns and Wiggins combo was also the second most used two-man lineup, spending 31.8 minutes per game on the floor together. The fourth most used lineup? Wiggins and Rubio. The 10th most used lineup? Lavine and Towns. The 12th most used lineup? Rubio and Towns. The 14th most used lineup? Dieng and Wiggins. I think I’ve hammered home my point. (Fansided)

Me: Meh. If I were Thibs, I don’t see a reason to care for those numbers.

For in-game matchups, who would you rather have on the court when we had third quarter problems last year? I’d go with any of those combos, even if they’re used a lot.

We need to catch up in games before handing it off to fresh legs.

….you know, I’m not going to paraphrase everything Brian has to say. It’s a good piece, worth the read, but I’m going to pick three more topics to focus on.

Watch this because I want you to feel entertained:

https://youtu.be/LVypJ-TiFss?t=18s

Alright, let’s continue…

Brian on Thibs overusing Big Three:

With the current core, each of the Big Three are certain to see 36-38 minutes per game on average. If each player is able to hold up throughout the course of the season, I’m concerned they will be completely worn down if they make the playoffs.

Me: Valid point, but I’m not stressing. These Timberpups are young and healthy. If they get injured, it’s not because they’re playing a lot of minutes.

It has to do with workouts, conditioning, etc. An issue that Thibs could direct his front office to focus on.

Brian on both Wiggins and Butler playing SF:

To begin, both of these dudes have very high usage percentages. Butler’s is 26.5 and Wiggins is 28.8, both ranking in the top 35 of NBA players.

Butler spent 64 percent of his time last year in Chicago at the small forward spot. Wiggins, on the same hand, spent a whopping 93 percent at the small forward position. I’m not a mathematician but I don’t believe two guys can both play small forward at the same time.

Me: Well, Thibs could move Butler to SG, filling the shoes of Zach LaVine.

Or even point guard to give Ricky Rubio rest (assuming he won’t be traded in October).

Jimmy is a versatile combo guard, like Thibs said. Filled in for Derick Rose before; could do it again.

Brian on the Timberwolves defensive concerns (here’s one of them):

Wiggins had a defensive points saved score of -174.21, the second worst in the NBA solely behind Isaiah Thomas. The only players who are certain to be in Minnesota’s rotation next year with a positive defensive points saved score are Towns and Dieng.

Me: Yeah, but that’s why they acquired Jimmy Butler. Jimmy’s a good defender, and that could relieve some of the pressure for Wiggins. I expect improvements from Wiggin’s defense, especially his perimeter defense.

Woah that was a lot of reading, right?

Take a break:

https://youtu.be/z5a30NvFlF8?t=19s

My overall thoughts on the article?

Mm. It’s a good argument for the more statistically-inclined fans. (I’m not really the guy he’s talking to)

I could see how Brian drew the conclusion that the Timberwolves won’t make the playoffs next season.

Here’s the thing though: we have no idea what will happen during free agency. We don’t know whether Shabazz Muhammad will resign with us, or if we’ll sign someone else.

We don’t know what else Thibs will do next. Only Mr. Taylor does. (if he asks)

All we could do is look to the past, piece together the evidence and draw conclusions about the future, like everyone else, but the recent statistics on players and matchups are a part of the equation.

There’s a lot more to consider. Like whether players like and want to play in Minnesota, whether they trust Thib’s vision, whether Mr. Taylor will approve the trade:

https://twitter.com/howlintwolf/status/880256980681506816

Whether their character fits the culture of the clubhouse, etc, etc.

Mind you, these are very young, impressionable Timberpups. Thibs wouldn’t bring in someone who could be a distraction.

(Think Paul George)

[ Related: IS PAUL GEORGE A FIT WITH THE TIMBERWOLVES? ABSOLUTELY NOT! ]

So Thibs has a lot of cards that he needs to play correctly, assuming he plays them correctly, in order to win more games.

At the end of the day, I want you—the Timberwolves fans who haven’t tuned out yet—to remember this: NBA Stats are great insights into the past, but arguments using NBA Stats partially define the Timberwolves playoff chances.

Like trade rumors, statistical arguments are a part of this story we call the offseason.

That said, Timberwolves fans…..what about you?

Tell me what you see.

Before Thibs shows us what he sees.

—DP

Go Timberwolves! Get your howl on.

Follow us on Twitter @howlintwolf & @Twolvesblog.

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