After just one week, the NFC West still looks to be the most competitive in the league, yet again. Three of the four teams won their first game, and everyone but San Francisco will be on their bye week in week 4. Defense still appears to reign supreme in this part of the NFL world, although the offenses are starting to get better. Seattle looks like the best team early, but there’s still 16 weeks to go and a lot can change.
With so many intriguing matchups in the NFC West in weeks 2 and 3, OSN writers Anthony Burrola (AB) and Casey Mabbott (CM) teamed up to offer you two unique looks of how each team fared in week 1, a preview and prediction of their next two matchups, and what the division will look like at the end of the month, including a “State Of Seattle” section illustrating what the Seahawks’ chances of repeating as Super Bowl Champions currently stand at. This will be a biweekly column throughout the season, so don’t forget to check back in week 4.
Let’s dive in.
Seattle (1-0)
Upcoming matchups: @ San Diego, vs Denver
(AB) After a potential NFC Championship preview to open the season, the Seahawks will travel to sunny San Diego to play the Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. I’ll spare you another analysis of Seattle’s season-opener against the Packers and jump straight into Sunday’s coastal matchup. The Chargers choked on Monday night, giving the Arizona Cardinals the game in the fourth quarter and all but assuring that they’ll open the season 0-2. While I want to pick San Diego to win this game, I would be disingenuous in doing so, but here’s why I am tempted: Since he’s been in the league, I’ve learned two things about Philip Rivers:
1. You can’t count him out.
2. You can’t count on him.
And no, I don’t think the colon inside a colon is grammatically correct, but consider it the Matryoshka doll of the written word. Rivers’ career to-date has given me analytical whiplash. He’s gone from living up to the high draft pick he cost, justifying the departure of Super Bowl champion Drew Brees, failing to justify the departure of Super Bowl champion Drew Brees, the kryptonite of Peyton Manning, the all-too-recent “washed up” seasons, and the succeeding bounce-back season that led the Chargers to a first-round upset of the Cincinnati Bengals and almost-upset of the 2013 Denver Broncos. The dude is undefinable, and for that reason, I want to bet on him, but for the same exact reason, I can’t.
The closing line on that game as of this writing is Seattle -5, which isn’t shocking. Expect them to win the game for sure, but don’t be surprised if the Chargers bolt up and make life hard for the Seahawks. The Charger defense is devoid of the amount of blue-chippers that Seattle boasts, but Brandon Flowers is secretly one of the best corners in the NFL. If he shadows Percy Harvin in coverage, Russell Wilson will have to maximize the gadgetry of the Seattle O in order to be effective in the passing game. He’s typically not the most efficient passer, but he’s so good at picking his spots that it doesn’t matter. Seattle wins 26-23.
As for the Super Bowl grudge match, the ‘Hawks are likely glad to be playing that game at ‘Da ‘Link. Denver will be returning with a much-improved defense that figures to make Wilson run more than he wants to as Von Miller and Demarcus Ware submerge, but the Denver defense isn’t what cost them the Super Bowl; it was the offense. Losing Wes Welker to a suspension, umpteenth concussion and, more likely, a scheduling conflict for a commercial shoot hurts, but it’s somewhat mitigated thanks to the emergence of Emmanuel Sanders. The kid’s a burner, and speed kills in the NFL. Pittsburgh doesn’t have the same type of quarterback to utilize Sanders’ skill set in the same way Denver does, and that’s why this is NOT me overreacting to his Sunday night torching of the Colts. Sanders isn’t just a guy. The Thomas’ Twosome will give Richard Sherman the challenge he’s been longing for and didn’t get against Green Bay, who sacrificed Boykin to Sherman in an effort to let Jordy Nelson make plays with less resistance. I picked Green Bay to win on opening night and that backfired in my face, but only because Seattle played like Seattle and Green Bay played like the Cowboys. I’ll double-down on my bet and pick the Broncos to upset the Seahawks 31-23 at home. Seattle is the Super Bowl champ and they are going to get everybody’s best shot. Denver’s probably the only team on its schedule who has enough bullets to make up for some misfires. Seattle goes into its week four bye with a 2-1 record and a bitter taste in its mouth. This could be the loss that makes them plow through the rest of its games with a renewed vengeance.
(CM) Fresh off their 36-16 demolishing of Green Bay, Seattle will head out on the road to face the San Diego Chargers in week 2. San Diego’s offense looked anything but sharp in their week 1 loss at Arizona, and their gameplan was consistently disrupted by 34 year old Larry Foote. Seattle’s front seven is one of the tops in the league, making Ryan Mathews and the Chargers running game virtually non-existent, yet again. That will for the second time in as many weeks leave the Chargers’ chances riding on Rivers’ right arm, this time vs the Legion Of Boom however, and that does not bode well for the boys in powder blue. Marshawn Lynch, Russell Wilson, and Percy Harvin should have a fairly easy go of things against a suspect Chargers defense that failed to put consistent pressure on Carson Palmer, and allowed 102 combined rushing yards to the trio of Andre Ellington, Palmer, and Jonathan Dwyer. Palmer also passed for 304 yards and two scores, despite Larry Fitzgerald being a non-factor for the bulk of the game. Seattle will enter week 3 at 2-0.
Hosting the visiting Denver Broncos “could” be another story. This isn’t the NFL’s best offense any more, but they’re still very, very good. The Broncos have endured some good and bad changes as Wes Welker is now suspended, Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno left town via free agency, but the team picked up LB DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib, and WR Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders adds a speed element the Seahawks will have to be concerned with, and the return of LT Ryan Clady might help the offensive line buy Peyton Manning an extra second or two. That being said, Seattle still has one of the best pass rushes in the game, and the LOB aren’t about to let themselves be outscored on their home field. Seattle will grind the clock with the running game, and the prospect of containing the combination of Marshawn Lynch, Percy Harvin, and the very mobile Russell Wilson, all at once, will leave the Broncos’ defensive coaches scratching their heads. It won’t be as complete a win as the Super Bowl or the home opener against Green Bay, but a win is a win, and after week 3, Seattle will have 3 of them and a share of the lead in the NFC West heading in to their week 4 bye.
San Francisco (1-0)
Upcoming matchups: vs Chicago, @ Arizona
(CM) San Francisco travelled to Dallas in week 1, forcing three interceptions and a fumble while building a 28-3 halftime lead. The Cowboys shutout the 49ers in the second half, and nearly mounted an improbable comeback in a 28-17 loss. San Francisco hosts Chicago in week 2 on Sunday Night Football, and the nation will be watching to see if week 1 was a fluke. Coming off a home loss to Buffalo, Jay Cutler and the offense will be hoping to have better luck against the 49ers defense than Tony Romo did, and to regroup after their early lead turned in to an ugly overtime loss against the Bills. Both teams have plenty of question marks on the defensive side, but lots of playmakers on offense. Cutler and Colin Kaepernick are both capable of turning the game around as easily as they can force too many throws and lose it single-handedly, so whoever has the steadier hand could win this one. The better ground game and overall defense should also help in this one, giving the edge to the 49ers, who should leave this game 2-0.
The week 3 matchup at Arizona could be a track meet, or it could be a slow and steady grudge match, and neither would be surprising. Carson Palmer is as turnover-prone as any QB in the league, but often figures defenses out late in games and depending on the hole he and the offense are potentially in, possesses the necessary weapons to beat the 49ers. Ryan Mathews runs like a younger Frank Gore, and other than one poorly defended touchdown in the 3rd quarter, the Cardinals had him bottled up for three and a half quarters. If the Cardinals can stymie the combo of Gore and Carlos Hyde, pitting Kaepernick against the Patrick Peterson-led secondary, I like Arizona’s chances. That being said SF still has plenty of playmakers on defense to make Arizona one-sided, and the ground attack to kill precious seconds off the clock, and the Kaepernick to Vernon Davis connection looks as deadly as ever. In such an even matchup, the edge goes to the home team.
San Francisco enters their week 4 showdown with Philadelphia at 2-1 in sole possession of second place in the NFC West.
(AB)The 49ers didn’t have to work hard for their week one victory, and you won’t find them apologizing for that fact. After a record-breaking offseason of off-the-field revelry and the inevitable consequences, they’ll take what they can get. San Francisco will open its new stadium against the Chicago Bears, who come to the Bay with a banged-up offense and some serious defensive deficiencies. I expect a shootout, but I won’t be surprised if Chicago wins a close one on the road. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte are not going to give the game away like the Cowboys did. They’re a better coached team. Chicago rebounds from a disappointing week one loss to the Bills, dynamiting the 49ers in their fancy new stadium and blasting their way to gold in the form of a 26-19 win.
San Francisco gets no early schedule favors as it travels to the desert for its bi-annual slugfest with the Cardinals. These aren’t your grandmother’s Cardinals, especially on defense. The two teams seemed to have switched spots in the defensive rankings, with Arizona usurping San Fran’s previous top-five spot. The NFC West likes to wake up for each other, and this game will be no different. Arizona builds a big lead early but fails to hold on as Carson Palmer continues to ignore Larry Fitzgerald and the 49ers open up their offense to win a close one on the road, 24-20. That leaves the Seahawks and 49ers tied at 2-1 apiece entering week four.
Arizona (1-0)
Upcoming matchups: @ New York Giants, vs San Francisco
(AB) Traveling to The Big Apple to play the New York Football Giants is not nearly as exciting as it once was. The Giants are struggling to resemble anything close to a team at the moment and are as excuse-laden as LeBron James apologists. They’re still learning the offensive scheme; Eli Manning is rusty; and Matthew Stafford is the next Tom Brady. Come on. Calvin Johnson, Jr. should be arrested of what he did to the Giants’ secondary on Monday night.
The Cardinals are coming off a late Monday night game only to travel to the other side of the country to play a 10 a.m. eastern game. It’s not an enviable two-week slate, but the NFL schedule-makers also gave them the benefit of playing another team that played late that same night. Unfortunately, the Giants got embarrassed on national television and will be playing at home in front of an angry crowd that won’t let them “forget about it.” The Giants show some pride at home and anger the betting public, who all but expect them to have another trash season, which they will, but not this week. Giants win ugly, 20-13.
My earlier prediction of Arizona losing week two has them entering week four at 1-2, third in the division. But hey, at least they’re not St. Louis.
(CM) After beating the San Diego Chargers handily on the stat sheet only to narrowly survive with an 18-17 victory, Arizona heads to the east coast to face the Giants in week 2. Eli Manning and the New York offense has done nothing to prove that their new scheme under OC Ben McAdoo is going to lead to anything positive, not yet anyway, as they accumulated just 216 combined yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in their 35-14 embarrassment in Detroit. Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are not Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, but along with Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington, should be able to put up comparable numbers to the Lions’ 422 yards, 4 touchdowns, and zero turnovers. The Cardinals revamped defense shouldn’t have any more trouble with Manning than they did with Rivers, and Rashad Jennings is not even on Ryan Mathews’ level, and that’s saying something. Arizona should roll to an easy victory in week 2.
Hosting the San Francisco 49ers, however, could be a different story. Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree represent a much better pool of talent than they will have faced so far in their short season. Returning Tyrann Mathieu to the field will make the secondary nearly as star studded as Seattle’s, but not quite. It’s going to take a total team effort to stop such a dynamic dual threat passer, a two-headed running game, and a passing attack featuring a top-15 WR and a top-5 TE. Arizona certainly has the personnel to take out the 49ers straight up, and barring any injuries or huge mistakes while playing in front of their home crowd, the Cardinals should be able to squeak out a victory and head in to their week 4 bye at 3-0 and tied with Seattle for the NFC West lead.
St Louis (0-1)
Upcoming matchups: @ Tampa Bay, vs Dallas
(CM) St. Louis was absolutely demolished in week 1 as they accumulated 345 yards of offense with zero touchdowns. They not only lost 34-6 to the Vikings, but also lost yet another QB to injury for at least one week, and there’s now a potential controversy at RB. Not a great start for the Rams. They head in to their week 2 road contest in Tampa with question marks virtually everywhere except their defensive line. Gregg Williams’ defense allowed just 356 yards but gave up 3 touchdowns, and did not produce a single turnover and only sacked Matt Cassel once. That won’t be enough against the Buccaneers, who run the ever frustrating cover-2 on defense and also run a very conservative run-heavy offense. Tampa Bay is coming off their own embarrassing loss to the Cam Newton-less Panthers, and looking to regroup at home against another struggling team. If Shaun Hill can go, it will be a journeyman-backup turned starter showdown between he and Josh McCown, with Zac Stacy and Doug Martin aiming to prove that they deserve the bulk of the carries for their respective sides. St. Louis won just two road games all of last season, and after getting demolished at home, I don’t like their chances. The Rams will start the year 0-2.
Hosting Dallas in week three, the Rams have a shot at going in to their week 4 bye with one in the win column, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Even though Dallas has perhaps the weakest defense in the league, the trio of Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and DeMarco Murray on offense are likely to be too much for a Rams team that couldn’t overcome Cassel, Adrian Peterson, and Cordarrelle Patterson in week 1. Regardless of who starts at QB for St. Louis, there just isn’t any player or players you can point to that can carry the team in a down year. Stacy looked like that guy late in the 2013 season, and we’ll see if he can force OC Brian Schottenheimer to use him more after receiving just 11 carries in week 1. Unless a miracle happens, I see Dallas running away with this one, despite how talented the Rams are on defense, with the Rams dragging an 0-3 record in to their week 4 bye and in sole possession of last place in the NFC West.
(AB) Minnesota? Really?
For shame, Rams. For shame.
The Rams and their one offensive strength, running back, will take the trip to Tampa, Florida to take on the Bucs. But playing in Florida weather is no boon to struggling running backs who are forced to carry the load for anemic offenses. Josh McCown was unimpressive against Carolina in Tampa Bay’s season opener, but Carolina’s defense is like a Seattle-lite defense. They’re good, physical, and aggressive. Beating them is no easy task. Minnesota proved just the opposite for the lowly Rams, who are destined to finish the season at the bottom of the NFC West. Tampa wins at home, 27-10.
Things get a little easier for the Rams, who will take on the lowly Cowboys in week three. Historically the Cowboys have owned the Rams; well, recently anyway. Demarco Murray has certainly had his way with the Rams’ D, but as hard as it is to bet on the Chargers like I mentioned earlier, picking the wins this Cowboys team will have is an even more impossible task. The Cowboys also have a history of letting bench-riding quarterbacks look like hall of famers, and even though they beat Shaun Hill the last time he suited up against them in Detroit, Dallas does not inspire confidence. Nevertheless, the Cowboys offense will markedly underperform, given the blue-chip talent it has on offense, but not enough to lose to the Rams in St. Louis. Demarco crushes Rams’ fans’ souls with 150 yards rushing, 65 yards receiving and 1 touchdown in a 27-24 win against St. Louis. While most teams will be happy to see the Cowboys on their schedule, the Rams will forever lose sleep before and after its annual matchups with Dallas for as long as Murray is on the Cowboys’ roster.
State of Seattle:
(AB) They’re the favorite to win the NFC West, NFC, and NFL. Is there really much else to say?
Well, I’ll try anyway. The Seattle defense is superb like Nicki Minaj’s bass. Seattle’s offense is tricky, fast, and explosive, but beatable. Because their schedule is more cake than a Rihanna photoshoot, it will be a while before we see a capable team exploit that. Sleep easy, Seattle; there are teams that can beat you in the NFC, but you will probably have the benefit of playing them at home.
(CM) The Seahawks allowed just 16 points and 255 yards to the Green Bay Packers (who many experts had pegged as their NFC Super Bowl favorite, which Seattle no doubt got wind of) in their 36-16 week one victory. With those numbers, Seattle is right on pace to match their 2013 league leading defensive stats of 14 points and 273 yards allowed per game. Nine of their 16 games are against 2013 playoff teams, and if they go even 12-4 against that lineup, it’d be tough if not impossible to count them out. At 3-0 and already getting a week of unneeded rest, potential injuries and fatigue will be their worst concerns moving forward.
I put their current chances to repeat as Super Bowl Champions at 100%.
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