If it is to be believed that the season is one long boxing match, the Jackets have been knocked down early in the first round. Sergei Bobrovsky has “lost his confidence”, Jarmo says it is time to “look in the mirror” but like any good boxer it is time they lick their wounds and battle back.
Assessing the Blows:
The Blue Jackets are probably not as bad as you think they are. Through the season thus far, there have been two types of games: 3 “very good” games and 1 undeniably bad game.
In their three “very good” games, the Blue Jackets have had a score adjusted CorsiFor% above 54% each time, a score-adjusted ShotsFor% above 53.5% each time, and a score adjusted ScoringChanceFor% above 52.5% each time. This means that the Blue Jackets have possessed the puck more and have turned that possession into shots on net and valuable scoring chances in three of their four games. What makes it even more impressive is the magnitude of the numbers. The three games don’t just suggest that the Jackets are beating their opponents in these areas, they suggest that they’re dominating.
And this is good. The team is doing the conventional things that teams do to win hockey games: puck possession, conversion of that puck possession into shots on net, and conversion of the shots on net into valuable scoring chances.
Obviously there is more to hockey than just puck possession and scoring chances, but if the Blue Jackets continue to dominate in those areas (and more) like they’ve shown they can do, it’s hard to imagine many scenarios where they continue this downward spiral that is leaving many people frustrated and exhausted.
Eventually the luck will turn. The shooting percentage will go up, the save percentage will go up, and we’ll stop seeing a seemingly “1 misstep: 1 goal against” ratio.
Dodging the Punches
And the mistakes are there, by the way. By no means am I trying to blame this all on bad luck. There are plenty of places the team can improve. For example, Columbus has allowed the second most power play goals and have the 25th worst PK% in the league. And to make it worse, they aren’t exactly cutting down on the penalties that they take.
To add to that, the defensive zone exits are poor, the neutral zone play has been sloppy, the passes aren’t connecting, the fourth line has been nearly non existent, Bobrovsky is letting in easy goals, and so on and so forth.
If anything, though, these things make me optimistic, and I am not someone who looks at the glass half full. The Blue Jackets have dominated important facets of the game and have looked awful doing it. There are tons of improvements to be made but the biggest building block is there, they just have to use it. Possession has shown to be the best predictor of future success, and there’s no reason to believe that this will prove differently if the Blue Jackets continue the route that they’re on while making some improvements along the way. We just have to stay tuned to find out.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
