Every year, Grantland’s Bill Simmons comes out with his NBA trade value column in which he assesses the value of the NBA’s top players by listing the top 60 trade assets in order (with some honorable mention candidates). It’s a column I look forward to every year. Simmons does a great job looking at the NBA’s best not only from a performance perspective, but a business one as well.
Simmons began with the release of part 1 of his trade value list, listing players 60-38, while also touching on some honorable mention candidates. Unfortunately for the Cs, Marcus Smart was the only player to make the honorable mention list and no Boston player cracked the top 60. Simmons did make time to add in Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk as honorable, honorable mention candidates, but cited the Celtics as one of just four teams (Cs, Philly, Lakers, Hornets) to not have a single player in the top 60.
Due to the lack of Celtics on the list, we thought it would be interesting to look at the Cs players through Simmons’ trade value lens ourselves. The team the Celtics are currently putting on the floor is made up of young developing players, guys who are there to enhance their trade value, or guys who are doing both at the same time. Cs fans are still holding out hope that trader Danny can work some magic and take us from worst to first like he did back in 2007, and while that is going to be nearly impossible, he’ll certainly be active in the trade market over the next couple of years. So which Celtics players could bring back the greatest return? Which guys could be packaged with one or more of our upcoming picks to land a star player? In assessing this team, which has often been referred to as “a bunch of spare parts,” we can also get a better idea of who the Celtics building blocks are moving forward. As bad as everyone wants to see Boston make a big splash, the smarter route may be to use the upcoming picks and allow those guys to develop with the young core the Cs already have.
Simmons abides by some rules, which I will also follow. Here they are:
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Salaries matter. Would you rather pay Serge Ibaka $12.4 million a year or Chris Bosh $20.6 million?
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Age matters. Would you rather have Dirk for the next three seasons or Boogie for the next 12?
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Contract length matters — a newish wrinkle in an era defined by shorter guarantees, swollen caps and forward-thinking GMs who hoard cap space like it’s Walter White’s crystal meth recipe.
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Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications, but with luxury-tax and next-day-cap ramifications. If Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y,” would Team B make the deal?
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Concentrate on degrees. For instance, a Klay Thompson–Dwyane Wade swap ain’t happening, but Miami would at least say, “Wow, Thompson’s available?” while GSW would say, “We can’t trade Klay for someone who’s eight years older.” That counts in the big scheme of things.
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This list runs in reverse order. If Thompson is no. 18, then players 1 through 17 are all players about whom GSW’s braintrust would either say, “We hate giving up Klay, but let’s have a meeting ASAP,” or, “Done! Call this deal in!” And GSW wouldn’t trade him straight-up for any player listed between nos. 19 and 60.
A few things before we start:
- Since the trade deadline is just over a week away, part 1 will serve as the trade deadline special. I’ll primarily discuss the Celtics veteran guys and the chances they get moved before the deadline. In Part 2, I’ll be taking a look at the Cs core guys and what their trade values look like.
- Many of the Celtics assets are in the form of draft picks, as we all know, but it’s simply too difficult (and unproductive) to compare draft picks and players. I’ll take a shot at assessing the value of those picks in part 3 of Celtics trade value.
- Unlike Simmons, I’m not ranking the league’s top players. That makes things a little dicey. A lot of the Celtics current players’ success depends on their fit with a given team. For example, put Klay Thompson on any team in the league and he will fit. Avery Bradley? Not so much. So, in ranking the Celtics players, I also took into consideration how easily they would fit in with other teams in the league. In other words, if a guy needs a particular situation to be successful, he has less trade value, as there are fewer teams who are willing to trade for him. The NBA is a league where the more versatile a player is, the more valuable he is. This is why a guy like Jeff Green can bring back a similar trade haul to Rajon Rondo.
Here we go:
In a Category of His Own
13. Gerald Wallace – At this very moment, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which another team takes Wallace’s $10M contract off Boston’s books without the Cs including a pick. Wallace is not producing for the Cs. He more or less serves as an assistant coach at the end of the bench. The Blazers were rumored to be interested at one point, but they would have to give up more than they’d like to make the money work. With the rest of this year and an additional year left on his contract, Wallace is currently the least tradeable guy the Celtics have.
Still, it was difficult for me to rank Wallace last on this list because his value as a Celtics trade chip will increase greatly this offseason. No, that’s not a joke. As soon as the season ends, Wallace’s contract transforms from “bad deal” to “expiring contract.” He will basically serve as a $10M trade exception the Celtics can use to land a star player. In fact, Wallace will be more valuable than a trade exception because he can be traded with other players. For example, another team could take on Wallace’s contract, a young player or two, and some picks if they are looking to deal a highly paid superstar and start over. Wallace’s contract would expire at the end of the year, giving a potential rebuilding team the trifecta of young players, draft picks and cap space.
Don’t get your hopes up. There currently aren’t many teams looking to trade their superstar and start over. But if an opportunity were to present itself, Wallace could be a valuable piece in bringing a high salary player to the Cs.
The Backup point Guards
12. Phil Pressey-I like Pressey as a player, but he has zero trade value. How much better is he than replacement level D-league point guard “X”? We just witnessed former Maine Red Claw great Tim Frazier drop 11 assists on the Cs the other night. The unfortunate truth for Pressey is that small, quick penetrating guards grow on trees in the NBA.
11. Evan Turner-Turner’s value plummeted following the failed Pacers experiment, and the Cs were able to scoop him up on a cheap contract in hopes that the former number two selection would be able to rebuild some of that value. Turner has had a decent year, but has not elevated his trade value much, if any. He has re-emphasized the fact that he struggles to play off the ball and that his future in the league is probably as a backup point guard, or, at the very least, a player who needs the ball in his hands to be effective. I could see a team giving Turner a look as a backup point with some size and the ability to create, but would they give anything up for him? Probably not.
The Veterans on Expiring Deals
10. Marcus Thornton-These next three guys could really go in any order, as they are all in similar situations: veterans with expiring contracts that could be had if another team is willing to part with a second round pick and make the salaries match up. That’s easier said than done.
Thornton’s $8.5M contract makes it difficult for another team to obtain him without giving up a part of their rotation in return. Even though Thornton is shooting 41% from 3, his reputation as a gunner who doesn’t play defense hurts him. He ranks last among the veterans on expiring deals, despite being the most talented, in my opinion, because his contract is going to be the most difficult to move and he lacks the proven playoff experience that both Bass and Prince have.
9. Brandon Bass-As the Boston Herald reported, the trade market for Brandon Bass is rather weak. As Celtics fans, this comes as a surprise. We value Bass for his hard play, defense and locker room presence. But looking at his game objectively, he is an undersized power forward who doesn’t rebound well, can’t post up, and doesn’t stretch the defense out to the 3-point line.
That’s not to say no team will make a deal for him. He’s a versatile defender who has played on the big stage before and would undoubtedly be ready to step in and contribute right away. Still, teams will exhaust all other options before surrendering a draft pick for a guy who may not move the needle this year, and could be gone in a few months. Bass’ contract (about $7M) could also make him somewhat difficult to move, though not as difficult as Thornton. At this point in time, Bass’ presence as a veteran on a young team may be more valuable to the Celtics than for another team.
8. Tayshaun Prince-Prince has the most trade value of the three because of his proven track record and recent play. He fell out of the rotation in Memphis, but has proven with the Cs that he still has the ability to help a team down the stretch.
A few obstacles will still hurt Prince’s trade value. First, like Thornton and Bass, his contract ($7.7M) makes him difficult to trade for. Second, there is a perception that if the Celtics are unable to trade Prince, they will simply buy him out. Teams would prefer the chance to sign the veteran forward rather than giving up assets to go get him.
Let me clarify what I mean when I say that these contracts are difficult to move. Yes, they are expiring, but for a deal to work, the Celtics trade partner would have to send a contract back so that Bass/Prince/Thornton contract value = “Y” contract X 150% + $100,000. That’s for a team below the luxury tax line (x125% +100,000 for a team in the tax). So to get a guy like Bass, an opposing team would have to send back about $4.5M in salary.
Take a team like the Portland Trail Blazers. To get a guy like Brandon Bass, they may have to give up important pieces like Joel Freeland and Steve Blake in order to make the deal work. Add in the fact that the Cs want a pick, and the deal is a no go. It’s more difficult than you think finding a situation where Bass/Prince/Thornton is a significant enough of an upgrade over the player a team would give up to warrant giving up a draft pick and potentially messing with a team’s chemistry.
Bottom line, it’s going to be tough to move any of these guys, but the Celtics will certainly be motivated. They need to open up more time for James Young, and trading any of these three guys would do that.
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