Five University of Oregon Ducks are in attendance as the NFL Draft combine kicked off in Indianapolis on February 23. Bralon Addison, Byron Marshall, Tyler Johnstone, DeForest Buckner, and Vernon Adams Jr. will, over the coming few days, look to show off their physical skill sets and attributes, their knowledge of the game, and their overall maturity. Combine results have real dollars on the line; have an impressive day of drills, and a prospect can find himself drafted in the first round instead of the third round. Based on draft slot value, a player can add at least $5 million dollars in value over the life of a 4-year rookie deal by vaulting from a projected third round player into a first round selection. A poor showing at the combine, conversely, can lead to unwanted scrutiny for a prospect that may cost them millions of dollars. For all the over-analysis, the hyper-scrutiny, the laughable implications placed on combine results, there is a certain fundamental truth to the process; prove you belong as an athlete, or risk fighting the prognosticators and the critics to show you belong.
Much like the Oregon prospects at the combine, new San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly is looking to once again prove he belongs in the NFL after a tumultuous three seasons as coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. In Philadelphia, Chip Kelly brought in a number of so-called “Oregon Guys”, players that knew Kelly’s system, his culture, his peculiarities. Josh Huff, Kenjon Barner, Kiko Alonso, Taylor Hart, Brandon Bair, and Casey Matthews are just a few of the players who played for Kelly both at the University of Oregon and with the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s entirely possible that Kelly may look to emulate this blueprint with the 49ers. Establishing locker room culture is critically important during a new head coach’s first season with a team, and former players can certainly help to facilitate what can be a difficult transition from one coach to the next.
With that, then, let’s turn back to this year’s NFL Draft, and examine which Oregon prospects Kelly might look to target in April’s draft. An obvious starting point is quarterback, where the 49ers appear to have a need. Colin Kaepernick is guaranteed $11.9 million if he is still on the 49ers roster on April 1, a steep price tag for a QB coming off of season ending shoulder surgery who has regressed over the past three seasons as a passer. While 49ers general manager Trent Baalke has stated that Kaepernick will be on the roster come April 1, neither he nor Kelly has committed to either Kaepernick or fellow 49ers QB Blaine Gabbert as the team’s starter this season. Adams Jr., meanwhile, has seen his stock rise in past weeks following an outstanding East-West Shrine Game last month. Electric when healthy, the diminutive Adams Jr. is drawing comparisons to former Seahawks 3rd round selection Russell Wilson: small in size, featuring a compact delivery with great touch down the field, and magical while maneuvering in the pocket. Durability is THE greatest concern when evaluating the former Eastern Washington and Oregon star.; helping Adams Jr. master when to slide should be the first priority for whichever team selects him. Adams Jr. is likely to be a Day Two or Day Three selection, and his traits make him an ideal fit for Kelly’s zone-read offense. Without a clear-cut long-term solution at the position, Adams Jr. is worth a serious look by Baalke and Kelly.
A pair of Oregon wide receivers could also help to bolster a meager 49ers wide receiving corp. Leading receiver Anquan Boldin is a free agent likely headed to a contending organization, leaving former Baltimore Raven Torrey Smith and 4th year man out of Louisiana Tech Quinton Patton as the only receivers left on the roster to catch more than 30 balls last season. After a season cut down to four games following season-ending right ankle surgery, Byron Marshall will be looking to catch on to a roster somewhere, likely as a special teams contributor. Marshall, the only player in Oregon history to record both a 1,000 yard rushing and 1,000 yard receiving season, is still a neophyte of the wide receiver position, but he has the raw physical tools to develop as a slot/running back hybrid. While Marshall would not make an immediate impact on the field, he could help set the tone for the way Chip Kelly wants things done and would serve as a great character guy in the locker room.
Bralon Addison, meanwhile, has an excellent chance to be an early rookie contributor on Sundays. After missing the entire 2014 season following an ACL tear, Addison returned as Oregon’s leading receiver in 2015, scoring ten total touchdowns, including two as a runner. The versatile Addison has excellent agility within tight spaces, and while not the vertical threat that NFL teams would prefer for a player who stands five feet eleven inches, his build and game are similar to former Oregon State wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Addison is a better blocker than Cooks however: he was a good, not great, blocker on the outside in college, a trait that is a must for any Chip Kelly wide receiver. Even if Reggie Bush returns to fill the role of slot receiver/running back, a long-term solution will need to be developed or signed, and Addison would be a good gamble for Kelly and the 49ers in the middle rounds of the draft.
The player whose future perhaps hinges most on this week’s NFL Draft combine is former Duck left tackle Tyler Johnstone, who returned this season after missing the previous two seasons due to consecutive ACL tears. Measuring six feet six inches and roughly 300 pounds, Johnstone has the long and lanky build required of zone blocking schemes like Kelly’s. Johnstone struggled early in the 2015 season but managed to garner 1st Team All-Pac-12 honors with improved late season play, regaining the quick first step that allowed him to thrive during the 2013 season. An otherwise middle round talent, questions surrounding the current health and projected future health of Johnstone’s right knee could lead Johnstone to go undrafted. If NFL medical staffs feel that Johnstone’s injuries have not seriously damaged his mobility, and if injury concerns cause Johnstone to slide into the 5th round or later, Baalke and Kelly should seriously consider adding Johnstone to their roster. If he can fully regain his mobility and athleticism and add upper body strength, Johnstone can become a solid starting tackle in Chip Kelly’s offense.
The most intriguing prospect the 49ers will consider is highly-regarded defensive lineman DeForest Buckner. Standing six feet seven inches, weighing close to three hundred pounds, and possessing a 40 yard dash time around four point eight seconds, Buckner has the rare combination of size and athleticism that is so difficult to gameplan for. Picking seventh in the first round, Buckner may well be off the draft board by the time the 49ers are on the clock, with Buckner projected as high as the second overall pick. If he slides to seven, the 49ers would be forced to consider selecting him. His versatility to play both inside and outside along the line makes him a valuable commodity that can fit into any defensive system.
The current roster, however, makes Buckner unlikely to hear his name called by the 49ers on draft day. The team is unlikely to trade up in the draft to select Buckner; Kelly is rebuilding the roster, and relinquishing draft picks and any other asset would run counter to this goal. Furthermore, the depth chart already has some interesting pieces along the defensive line. Quinton Dial solidified himself as a starter at defensive end this season, with former Kansas City Chief Glenn Dorsey proving serviceable at the opposite end spot. Starting nose tackle Ian Williams had his most productive season as a pro in 2015, recording 65 tackles and playing in all 16 games for the 49ers, but he is an unrestricted free agent who may garner more on the open market than the 49ers would be willing to offer. Even if Williams signs with another team, the 49ers 2015 first round pick, former Oregon DL Arik Armstead, is on the roster, and Dorsey could slide to nose tackle to open up a defensive end spot for Armstead. With two solid starters already on the roster, and free agency still to come, the price for Buckner is a bit too steep for the 49ers in my estimation.
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