AT&T Cotton Bowl Preview: Arkansas vs Kansas State

Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2 overall, 6-2 in SEC)

Most impressive victory: 44-28 vs South Carolina (Nov 5)

Worst loss: 38-14 at Alabama (Sept 24)

Notable alumni: Steve Atwater, John Daly, Butch Davis, Jimmy Johnson, Jerry Jones, Cliff Lee, Darren McFadden, Pat Summerall, Barry Switzer

This Arkansas team came into the season with very high expectations and had a really good year but couldn’t get past the top tier of the SEC West. The only blemishes on the Razorbacks record have been to the two teams that will play in the BCS National Championship game as they fell to Bama 38-14 and to LSU 41-17.

Arkansas went 3-2 against Top 25 teams this year (rankings as of time game played). They beat Texas A&M, Auburn and South Carolina (without Marcus Lattimore). When the Razorbacks have the ball they will throw it around 54% of the time. First year starter Junior Tyler Wilson threw for 3422 yards and had 22 TD vs 6 INT (he only threw it 4 times less than Ryan Mallett did last year).  Before the season, the Razorbacks lost their top RB Knile Davis to an injury so there were a lot of question marks around the ground game. Dennis Johnson (637 yards, 6.3 ypc, 3 TD) and Ronnie Wingo Jr (440 yards, 4.5 ypc, 3 TD) weren’t as impressive as Davis but they did a solid job replacing most of his production.

The real strength of the Razorbacks is at the receiver position. Senior Jarius Wright really broke out this year with 63 receptions for over 1000 yards and 11 TD. Senior Joe Adams wasn’t quite as productive as last season (13 less receptions, 183 less yards and 3 less receiving TDs) but he was solid and provided one of the highlights of the year when he took a punt back 60 yards against Tennessee. Greg Childs, Cobi Hamilton and TE Chris Gragg will also be factors in the pass game. Teams just don’t have enough good defensive backs to cover all of these guys.

On defense, Arkansas allowed 371.4 yards per game (which was 9th in the SEC and an increase of 23.5 ypg over 2010) and gave up 390 ypg against FBS opponents. Stud DE Jake Bequette struggled to stay on the field this year as he battled injuries. Despite that he did manage 8 sacks. He will be looking to go out on a high note and improve his draft status with a good showing in this game. The next highest on the team had only 3.5 sacks so when Bequette isn’t in the game, the Hogs will struggle to get after the QB. The other two players to watch out for on the Arkansas defense are seniors Jerry Franklin (LB) and Tramain Thomas (DB). Arkansas returned a lot of talent on defense and while they weren’t awful they didn’t take the steps they needed to on that side of the football to compete against the likes of LSU and Alabama. Because of that, Bobby Petrino fired DC Willy Robinson. Arkansas got shredded on the ground in both of their losses so it will be interesting to see how they do against Kansas State with just a short time to prepare without their DC from this season.

Kansas State Wildcats (10-2 overall, 6-2 in Big 12)

Most impressive victory: 36-35 vs Baylor (Oct 1)

Worst loss: 58-17 vs Oklahoma (Oct 29)

Notable alumni: Kirstie Alley, Michael Beasley, Michael Bishop, Erin Brockovich, Martin Gramatica, Gene Keady, Lon Kruger, Mitch Richmond, Darren Sproles

Collin Klein stepped in at QB for Kansas State this season and was better than most expected. Coming into the season he had thrown just 19 passes but he was able to ease himself into the job as K-State started with Eastern Kentucky and Kent State. Klein threw for 1745 yards and had 12 TDs against 5 INTs but he was more effective running the football. Klein had over 1000 yards rushing and ran for 26 TD on the year. He had 5 games with 3 or more rushing TDs and put 5 on the board against the Aggies. The only QBs in the FBS to run for more yards than Klein this season were Chandler Harnish (NIU) and Denard Robinson. In terms of TDs, Klein had the most rushing TDs for any QB and only trailed Wisconsin‘s Montee Ball and Temple’s Bernard Pierce for the FBS lead.

The Razorbacks did give up 66 yards and 2 TDs earlier this year to Vandy’s Jordan Rodgers and let Jordan Jefferson run for 53 yards and a TD in just 7 carries in their loss to LSU. So there is precedent that Arkansas has struggled when they’ve seen running QBs (although those teams aren’t built around their QB running like K-State is). It looks to be a unique challenge for the Razorbacks as Kansas State runs the ball around 68% of the time and Klein has more than half the rushing attempts for the Wildcats this year. Collin Klein will be taking about 35% of the snaps and running with the football and it will be interesting to see how Arkansas handles that.

Kansas State has a middle of the pack Big 12 defense. It’s tough to look at numbers from Big 12 defenses and translate them because the Big 12 has 5 of the top 15 offenses. Looking at the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State games, the Wildcats gave up over 500 yards passing in both of those games (a total of 1022 yards). Kansas State is going to struggle to stop the Arkansas passing game.

THE PICK:

Kansas State represents a unique challenge for Arkansas with Collin Klein. Kansas State must control the clock (led the Big 12 in time of possession) in this game and not give the Razorbacks a lot of time to get comfortable offensively. That being said, the Kansas State passing defense stands out as a definite weakness and I can’t help but think Bobby Petrino is going to dial up a successful game plan against it. Despite going 10-2, Arkansas has to feel like they missed their chance to prove themselves this year and will want to come out and make a statement. I’m going Hogs with this one. It should be another high scoring BCS game.

Arkansas 42 Kansas State 26