Early in the off-season, the Indians moved slowly in the depths of the free agent market. They signed the usual AAAA catchers in Erik Kratz and Guillermo Quiroz and took fliers on Chris Colabello and Daniel Robertson. One thing all these players had and still have in common is that there is no way any will be on the Major League team to start 2017.
The fact is, the Indians had little reason to look for Major League hitters after bringing in Edwin Encarnacion. The entire infield along with the catchers and DH are essentially set in stone with so many slightly above league average outfielders that it would take a bigger splash than the Indians were interested in making to make any difference. Just like in 2015 when David Murphy and Ryan Raburn combined to be a near All-Star, Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer combine to make one super right fielder that can actually field his position. In addition, there is the option of Abraham Almonte and Tyler Naquin for center that should at least provide a league average player until Bradley Zimmer is ready. Assuming Michael Brantley is healthy, that’s a good enough outfield that, when combined with an incredible infield, great starting pitching staff and best bullpen in baseball the Indians should be able to get back to where they want to be.
However, we assumed Brantley was healthy last year and that worked out fairly poorly. We also saw Naquin go from hitting .335/.399/.629, striking out in 29% of plate appearances on July 31st to hitting .234/.331/.331 and striking out in 33% of plate appearances after August 1st. In the post-season, he dropped that to .174/.208/.261 and raised the strikeout percent to 56%. If Brantley is healthy for the entire season or Naquin is able to adjust to the pitchers who already have adjusted to him, the Indians should still be able to cover every position, either by making Chisenhall and Guyer full time starters, promoting Zimmer early or getting crazy with some combination of Jose Ramirez and either Giovanny Urshela or Yandy Diaz. If both are absent or playing below expectations, however, the Indians will be in desperate need of aid. It was likely this line of thinking that motivated the recent minor league signings of Austin Jackson and Wily Mo Pena.
Austin Jackson
Now that he’s coming to Goodyear, Jackson should supplant Zimmer as the first emergency option and he could be even more than that. Interestingly enough, Jackson has a very similar story to Naquin (excepting a difference in defense). Going back to 2010, Jackson was the number two finisher in the Rookie of the Year vote to Neftali Feliz (Naquin finished 3rd in 2016) and like Naquin, he struck out a ton. In fact, he lead the league in offensive K’s with 170. In fact, also like Naquin, he was off the charts early on (.341/.387/.463 on June 3rd) only to fall off in the later part of the season (.267/.324/.366 from June 4th on). The good news for those wondering if Naquin can recover is that Jackson had solid seasons from 2012 through 2015.
The bad news for Jackson is that an injury mired 2016 saw him lose all power, speed and defense. Once a positive 7.9 UZR/150 defender in center, he was worth -12.8 UZR/150 in limited action there last year. If the Indians were to replace either Brantley or Naquin in the projected line-up, they would want to do so with a center fielder and finding someone worse than Naquin (-9.4 UZR/150) would not be ideal.
Offensively, however, there is great reason to believe Jackson will have a comeback season. In 2016, he was more selective at the plate, swinging at less pitches outside of the zone and hitting more of those that he did swing at. This coincided with an increase of hard hit balls, but was hurt by a BABIP of .319, considerably lower than his career average of .350. While a loss of speed likely has something to do with that, fangraphs projects his BABIP to rise to .327 in 2016 and for his average and slugging percent to increase slightly with the uptick.
Luck likely had a lot to do with Jackson’s poor final line in 2016 as he started the season hitting .167/.211/.204, but hit .291/.361/.402 in his final 36 games before tearing his meniscus and missing the rest of the year. Assuming he had a full recovery from that injury, he could easily be more like the hitter he was in his final 36 games than the one he was in his first 18.
Jackson’s contract will allow him to leave should he not make the team out of Spring and, if he is completely healthy, there will certainly be other teams interested. If he plays up to expectations, there is a definite chance that he could begin the year on the Indians. Who he replaces is another matter. Despite being right handed, Jackson has hit right handed pitchers for both more power and average over his MLB career, giving him a similar skill set to both the left handed Naquin and the switch hitting Almonte. For defensive purposes as well as making sure Naquin is making the proper adjustments, Almonte could stay as the Indians fifth outfielder with Naquin starting in AAA to make room for Jackson. If Brantley isn’t ready to go on day one, this would obviously greatly increase the need for Jackson and his chances of making the team.
Wily Mo Pena
Pena is in another class altogether. Essentially the opposite of Jackson, he never had speed or defense, but always hit the ball hard. In his first full season, he hit 26 home runs for Cincinnati, then had 19 the next year in less than 100 games. Recently, Pena took the entire 2016 season off after playing in Japan from 2012 through 2015 including a 20 double, 32 home run, 90 RBI season in 140 games for Orix in 2014. If his numbers from 2015 for Tohoku Rakuten came in 2016 against Major League pitching, he would have a decent chance of making the team. This is not the case, however, and his lack of defense make him extremely ill fitted for the Indians outfield.
Another DH is exactly what the Indians don’t need with both Encarnacion and Carlos Santana expected to play every day and that is essentially what Pena should be expected to be. The only possible chance he has of breaking into the Majors this year is if Naquin, Brantley and Jackson are unable to play and Zimmer isn’t ready. Even then, he would at best be a left fielder which is pretty scary considering he once had a -11.0 total UZR while playing just over 450 innings across two years in the smallest left field in baseball in Boston. Playing balls off the wall in Fenway can be difficult, but there is very little range that needs to be covered and given the wall in left in Cleveland, it’s a fair comparison.
If Pena doesn’t mind playing in Columbus however, there is a job opening now that Jesus Aguilar is a Brewer and AAA pitching today may be similar enough to Nippon League pitching in 2015 for Pena to be comfortable.
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