Today Ted Miller of ESPN ran predictions of Oregon doom at the Cowboy Classic. His expert of the day, Brian Fremeau of ESPN’s Football Outsiders, says LSU losing starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson won’t hurt them much, because LSU wins games with defense and special teams. They overwhelm opponents and force mistakes. They get big plays in unexpected ways:
For the season, LSU defensive and special-teams units created more short-field opportunities than any other units in college football last season. The Tigers started 24 percent of their drives in opponent territory in 2010, and only 11 percent of its drives from inside its 20-yard line. Those were the best marks in the country and the main reason why LSU was able to win 11 games last season with a less-than-stellar offense.
photo at left: Swarming and opportunistic, the fast, athletic Tiger defense forces mistakes and makes big plays. (Nola.com photo)
The Tiger defense and special teams made a bigger difference in their scoring margin last year than any other team in the country, forcing turnovers, short-fields and sudden changes.
To counteract that effective strategy, the hallmark of Les Miles’ tenure at LSU, which includes the 2007 National Championship, the Ducks have to be crisp, cool and efficient. They can’t make unforced errors and cough up the football. Darron Thomas in particular has to be sharp and under control.
In Oregon’s ideal scenario they get off to a good start, and establish their tempo early. It would help to get a couple of the explosion plays they thrive on in the first half.
If it turns out to be a grind-it-out game, that favors the Tigers, with their big lines and penchant for low-scoring games, with their big plays generally not coming from the offense.
Oregon has to be disciplined, smart and prepared, just like they have been 22 times in Chip Kelly’s head coaching career. They can’t succumb to the Les Miles Voodoo, and let the game become a game of errors, because they can win a game of execution.
The Ducks win a contest between two teams playing their best. Trouble is, LSU excells at getting teams to play their worst. It starts with Darron Thomas, who must be the most crisp, cool and efficient athlete on the field.
Before the UCLA game on national TV on Thursday night, Chip Kelly told ESPN’s Erin Andrews, “Pressure is what you feel when you don’t know what you are doing. We know what we’re doing, so we don’t feel pressure.” The Ducks have to take that attitude into Dallas, and execute like the prepared, focused team they have been in winning two conference titles in the last two years. They can’t let the Tiger mojo overwhelm theirs.
The Ducks play bold, confident football. They don’t play safe and they don’t play scared. Chip Kelly has taught them to trust their preparation, even at their own goal line. The fake punts, onside kicks, going for two and going for more out of their own end zone has sent them a message they’ll remember in any situation: be audacious. Don’t be afraid of giving up a big play. Make one.
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