When #20 Wisconsin and #3 Ohio State tip off from the Kohl Center on Saturday afternoon 1st place and the inside track to the regular season conference title is on the line. Just two weeks ago the chances of this game meaning anything other than for pride seemed slim to none amongst the Badger faithful. But the Badgers come in putting a 6 game winning streak on the line against the Buckeyes 4 game winning streak.
Lots has been made of what happened at the Kohl Center last season as Wisconsin took down the top ranked Buckeyes, but this is a new year and two completely different teams. It’s also amazing how quickly some forget the absolute beat down that Ohio State put on Wisconsin to end the regular season last year, winning 93-68 in Columbus.
Wisconsin comes in to this game also putting a 9 game winning streak at home over the Buckeyes on the line. Overall the series lead belongs to Ohio Sate though, at 82-65.
Sure Jarred Sullinger and Jordan Taylor are major players on both teams, but overall they both have major changes to the roster and a lot of the key players in the 2012 matchup weren’t major players at all in the 2011 matchups.
The one common theme in this game is defense. Wisconsin and Ohio State are two of the best defensive teams in the country, but they get it done in completely different ways. Ohio State employs a fast paced zone style of defense, while the Badgers are in your face man to man all day every day.
Wisconsin is 1st in the conference and country in team defense, allowing opponents to score just 49.5 points a game (which would be a D1 record). Ohio State isn’t far behind, ranking 2nd in the Big Ten and 7th nationally while giving up only 55.6 points per game. But an ever better indicator of just how good these two teams are defensively is their scoring margins. Again they rank 1st and 2nd in conference, but it’s Ohio State that comes out on top with a +21.7 margin with Wisconsin next at +15.1 a game.
What makes these defenses so good is the underrated athletic play of completely different players. For Ohio State it’s Aaron Craft. The unheralded guards ability to defend in their zone scheme and his wingspan really help pull it all together. He averages just 8.1 points a game, but he has 52 steals on the year, which is tops in the conference.
For the Badgers it’s the play of two guys in Ryan Evans and Jared “Ice Berg” Berggren. Evans is a rebounding machine and it’s his results on the defensive end that have sparked many a Badgers run offensively. Evans is 3rd on the team in scoring with 9.8 points a game, but he leads the team in rebounding pulling down 6.7 rebounds a game (6.3 in conference play). He is also 3rd on the team in assists, something you don’t see too often from a forward.
Berggren, on the other hand, has really been a force inside, especially in conference play. He’s had 16 of his 30 blocks this season come in conference games and for a big man he’s got an impressive 25 steals for the season. Additionally he has pulled down 5.5 rebounds a game during conference play, a slight uptick over his season average of 5.1 rebounds a game.
Everyone talks about Jarred Sullinger for Ohio State and for good reason, he contributes a lot to this team. He scores 17.1 points a game (4th in conf.) and adds 9.1 rebounds a game, which is good for the best mark in the conference.
But he doesn’t get it done alone for the conferences 2nd highest scoring team (77.3ppg). Helping him is fellow forward Deshaun Thomas and guard William Buford. Buford adds 15 points per game and Thomas isn’t far behind averaging 14.6 points per game.
The obvious matchup that means the most in this game is Jared Sullinger versus Jared Berggren and it is important. But for me it’s the point guards in Aaron Craft and Jordan Taylor that will key this game.
Craft is a great defender and is an assists and steals machine. Well, he’s about to meet his toughest challenge as Jordan Taylor leads the country with a 3.1 assists to turnovers ratio and over the course of the past 5 games has only committed 1 turnover. Whoever can hold the other point guard to their style of play in this point guard matchup will go a long way in determining who wins this titanic battle for the top spot.
I think for the Badgers to pull out this upset of the 3rd ranked Buckeyes and throw a few more gallons of fuel on to the fire of an already simmering rivalry Wisconsin needs to make it a race to 50. If they’re the first team to 50 Bucky is in good shape, but if not it could be a very ugly day for Wisconsin.
Overall I have a ton of faith in the Badgers defense. We’ve seen many a high octane offense become anemic at best against the top defense in the country and I don’t see any reason that it can’t do it against another top level opponent. It’s the offense that’s worrisome. But in the end I just see Jordan Taylor taking this game over and having one of his most memorable performances, something we’ve been waiting all season for. Perhaps a 25-30 point performance as he takes this team on his back and wills it victory. It’s bound to happen at some point this season, why not now?
Prediction: Wisconsin 65 Ohio State 58
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