Bakbakbak Beckett

Erstwhile ace Josh Beckett has treated Red Sox fans to a spectacular display of homerun-hitting this year.
I don’t know who holds the all-time single season record for most homeruns allowed in a season, or what number of homeruns that individual allowed. But I would wager that Beckett — with his 31 moonshots surrendered — has an outside shot to make history this year. Actually, on second thought, I bet that’s a trivia question I can answer myself. And sure enough, after a short consultation with the indispensable baseball_reference.com, I find that nobody ever allowed more homeruns than Bert Blyleven in 1986, when he surrendered 50 gopherballs. Yeah, safe to say, if Beckett continues to give them up at his current pace, he has a real shot to enshrine himself somewhere near the top that list of dubious distinction.
In case my sarcasm hasn’t tipped you off yet, I find this situation to be tremendously frustrating. Beckett was supposed to be our #2. Beckett was our heir apparent to Curt Schilling as staff ace. Beckett was a guy on whom we were (and are) depending, a guy from whom we expected great things. He’s certainly a guy whom we gave up a lot of talent to acquire. And maybe most confusing of all is the fact that, despite his ineffectiveness this year, Beckett still appears to be a guy blessed with the ability to perform great things.
Beckett is a classic tease. He has great stuff, and occasionally he has the great games of which his stuff is suggestive, but all too often he’s being lit up. What gives?
If you ever listen to the Red Sox games on radio, you’ve probably heard Jerry Truppiano (whom I swear was inebriated yesterday) lament that what Beckett needs, above all else, is a better changeup — and by that, Trup will proceed to tell you (repeatedly) that he means a changeup with greater differentiation in speed from the fastball. That, according to Truppiano, is the solution to Beckett’s problems.
And that, in a word, is a load. Let’s dispense with that notion forthwith. San Francisco flamethrower Jason Schmidt throws his fastball & changeup at velocities almost identical to Beckett’s. Schmidt, when healthy, is incredibly effective. Clearly, Beckett’s problem lies elsewhere.
Personally, I think Beckett’s problem isn’t so much the speed of any of his pitches, but the location. Beckett has control, I think, but not command. Beckett’s BB/9 ratios are good, historically better than average, and his BB ratio this year is right in line with his career statistics. So he can throw the ball over the plate. But can he make quality pitches?
I say no. Too many times this year, it seems to me, when a hitter hits a homerun off of Beckett, it comes off a fastball that was thigh-high right down the middle. Look, I don’t care how hard you throw, that’s a dangerous place to live as a pitcher — Beckett’s season thus far being proof enough of that.
The Sox lost the final game of a 3-game set in Tampa this week when the bullpen couldn’t a late lead. I couldn’t watch (or listen to) the game, so I had to glean what information I could from replays and postgame discussions after the fact. What I learned was that first Timlin coughed up a homer, then Papelbon followed suit, and finally Tavarez conceded the victory, giving up the game-winner in extras. Timlin has been bad of late, and Tavarez just sucks anyway, so what are you gonna do about those? The Papelbon homer surprised me, though, all the more so when I learned that he surrendered it to Dioner Navarro — not a bad hitter for a catcher, but also not the first guy you think of when you think of Devil Rays hitting homers. But then I saw a highlight of the play, and had to admit that there was really no blaming Papelbon in that situation. He made a pretty good pitch, a hard fastball on the inner half and up around Navarro’s shoulders. Navarro hit it out. Credit the hitter.
I found myself strangely relieved. Upon further reflection, I laughed. I think I was subconsciously afraid I was going to see that Papelbon had made a mistake right down the middle, the way Beckett tees it up for the batters. No worries, though. Papelbon is still the rookie embodiment of greatness.
Beckett still sucks, of course.
Beckett’s problem is also not repertoire. Heck, let’s compare Beckett’s repertoire with that of teammate David Wells. Beckett predominantly throws two pitches, the fastball and the curve, with an occasional changeup mixed in to keep hitters guessing. David Wells also predominantly throws two pitches, the fastball and the curve, with an occasional slider mixed in to keep hitters guessing. Wells throws a cut fastball from time to time, Beckett a two-seam running fastball once in a while. Beckett throws the 4-seam fastball 97 miles per hour. Wells throws it 88. Wells moves the fastball around the strikezone like a craftsman, forcing hitters to dance to try to keep their ballance and put a good swing on the ball. Beckett throws the ball right down the pike, hoping to overpower the batter. Wells is effective, Beckett is not.
It occurs to me, in my usual cynical way, that Josh Beckett is a pitcher’s version of Scott Podsednik. The comparison suggested itself to me when, in a heated rant to friend, I stated that both players are among the most overrated players in the game. I then considered my own comparison and came to the decision that it was unexpectedly apt. Both players are one-dimensional, their games built entirely around speed. In Beckett’s case, that speed is the speed of his fastball. In Pod’s case, the speed is the footspeed. Both players are hopelessly stubborn. Beckett is stubborn in that he keeps getting beaten on the fastball in the middle of the plate, yet he continues to pitch to that location with the blow-’em-away mentality. Scott Pod is stubborn in that he never has good SB/CS ratios, yet he continues to take the quantity-not-quality approach to basestealing. Both players hurt their team in regards to homeruns, Beckett by giving them up in bulk, Pod by seldom hitting them. Both players struggle with their conception of the strikezone: Podsednik rarely draws a walk, while Beckett fails to understand the concept that all strikes are not created equal.
On July 19th, following a great start in which Beckett blanked the mighty Royals for 8 innings, the Red Sox announced that they had signed the young right-hander to a 3-year contract extension. Being the sardonic sort, I chuckled to myself. If only the Sox had wrapped up those negotions during the start Beckett made immediately prior to July 19th, they might have saved themselves many millions of dollars. On July 14th, versus Oakland, Beckett allowed 7 runs, all earned, in just 4.1 innings of work.
But only 1 homerun, oddly enough. For Beckett, I guess that could be considered a good day.