Thomas Fuller must have been thinking of the Saints when he coined the phrase ‘the night is darkest before the dawn’ (paraphrased and I looked up who said it to be fair). The only question that remains about this season in my book is whether these last couple days are the ‘darkest’… or if it is the entire 2014 season. Either way I believe that Saints fans have a great deal to be optimistic about, for this year and beyond. I’m not necessarily talking about the season record though, I am forced to agree with the podcast’s own Ralph Malbrough that the Saints ceiling at this point is probably 8-8. The thing that is quietly keeping me upbeat is the way that the Saints have begun to stealthily build a very talented young (and youngish) nucleus of players not named Drew Brees to carry the team into his twilight years and beyond. Before I get to them though, on to Baltimore.
I would normally spend a lot more time looking at the match-ups between the two teams, but in this case I am going to stay pretty broad for two reasons. The first is that in many ways this game is irrelevant at this point; obviously injuries (please god no) or another home blow out (really! No!) could have significant detrimental effects on the team. But the Saints just need to win the South and the path to that is simple, beat Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa, and beat Chicago and the Saints will win the division. A win against either Baltimore or Pittsburg would just be icing on the cake. The second reason I am not going to delve to deep into this matchup is that both of these teams are coin flips teams where you never know who is going to show up (just this year for the Saints, but Flacco is almost always like that).
The match-up:
I think this game is going to come down to one very simple thing… whose pass rush has a better game? Both teams have questionable at best secondaries and receivers good enough to torch the opponent. Flacco is a slightly above average QB with a Howitzer for an arm who really does throw great bombs, but if you can pressure him he can go ‘full Eli’ (never go full Eli). Brees is still a hall of famer who like Flacco has great weapons to throw to (and a run game this year) which allows him to be dominant… plus he is at home. The real issue comes from the fact that the Saints offensive line has really been mostly below average this year and it has had a major part to play in Drew’s picks and the Saints losses. In particular the once reliable middle of the line has been anywhere from average to disastrous on any given play (with spectacular thrown in now and then… but rare). If the Saints want to win this game they need to come out firing early and get up by 2 scores as fast as they can, and they need to protect Drew from Dummervil and Suggs at all costs. If they do that I give them better than even odds to win the game, but if they also manage to pressure Flacco (especially up the middle), then those odds go through the roof. The Saints secondary is still the nearest thing this side of Lindsey Lohan to a total disaster… but as we know from last year a good pass rush can fix even the worst secondary.
So about those reasons for optimism:
I’m going to break down the young guys on the Saints squad into two groups. The guys I know can be anywhere from above average to really really good, and the guys who I am certain will be stars or the next best thing.
Better than average: Tim Lelito, Ronald Powell, Brian Dixon, P-Rob, Rafael Bush, Junior Gallete, John Jenkins, Kenny Stills, Josh (jonah) Hill, Khiry Robinson (could be in either group).
Stars: Cameron Jordan: A total package end with formation versatility like his is a rare find, and while his numbers don’t add up he has pretty consistently gotten pressure, just hasn’t finished this year (and not all because of him).
Terron Armstead: At worst he is going to be a very, very, good LT…at best he will be fighting Tyron Smith for the ‘best in the league’ moniker for a decade. Yea…he is that talented.
Brandin Cooks: take my personal bias out of it and any coach on the Saints staff will tell you he has only scratched the surface of his abilities. As he gains comfort in the system and they trust him more the numbers are going to skyrocket with him…already we have seen teams shift coverage to make sure he doesn’t kill them.
Jimmy Graham: already a star… nuff said.
Kenny Vaccaro: this one will get me some flack from people, but I promise to do a piece on him similar to what I did with Cooks which hopefully will allay some of your fears about him being a one hit wonder.
Mark (Angry) Ingram: the reborn version of him that is furious and decisive has a ton of potential with this team…and he is still very young. If the Saints improve their interior line and resign him he could be a huge piece.
Keenan Lewis: not the youngest guy, but an absolute stud and maybe the most competitive guy not named Drew on the roster…love him.
*Jairus Byrd: he gets an asterisk because we never saw him fully healthy, but he had some hidden positive impact even while he played and showed flashes before his season was ended. A healthy Byrd could have a huge impact next year…we will see.
The bottom line: the Saints are far from down and out, and while they are definitely aging, there are a lot of guys on this roster right now who not only can play in this league, but can play on a contender. I think the Saints can still be a credible threat on ‘any given Sunday’, but they have to play like it. The single biggest thing I want to see going forward though is more opportunities for the young guys. The guys we are playing now aren’t exactly lighting it up, so the ‘they aren’t ready’ excuse doesn’t fly very far.
Things to look for: All four games Lelito started at Center we won and I think that means something. He isn’t the better player per say, but he is the healthier and younger one, he simply doesn’t get physically dominated the way Goodwin has over and over this year (to be fair when healthy he has looked great…at times). The biggest reason to play him though is that there really isn’t a significant drop off and in that case you play the younger guy so you can see what you have.
Brian Dixon is flat out a better player than Corey White. He isn’t the better athlete, but he has true corner skill which he has shown over and over, and while he will get beat the way all young guys do…it won’t be the same kind. He needs to start. I would love to see Powell get some reps at OLB (maybe not this week, but soon) just because I think he has a ton of potential…but he is so raw at this point I don’t blame the coaches because he really might not be ready to line up yet (can’t be worse than ‘Tez’ was though IJS)
Joe Morgan needs to be in the lineup and playing as much as possible…he at least can get open. I also want him on punt returns because unlike Brandin he has shown a knack for it in the past. The kid has definitely had some bumps in the road, but I would love to see them give him a shot to prove he is more than ‘a problem child’.
Tyrunn Walker should also be getting more reps IMO but he has kind of carved his place so I am lest intrigued and more just perturbed at the minimal snaps.
With all that said Saints fans just remember that our ‘Dawn’ is coming and to stay behind our guys. Our run isn’t over yet, not by a long shot, and while things may look bleak now… just remember how swiftly that can change.
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