Chris: Once again Joe and I are back for another round of Barstool Deliberations. Sully’s buddy Mark just paid his tab and it’s time to determine if the Sabres are indeed on the right track. A lot is being made of Buffalo’s failure to climb out of the league basement and as they’ve flirted with dropping back to 30th over the past week-and-a-half(ish) that opinion has possibly gained a bit of momentum. However, I’m not sure it’s fully justified. Sure, there have been far more struggles than were expected, but you can’t look at this year’s squad and not have some growing optimism about what the future holds. Right?
Joe: They are more entertaining than the dogshit product we had to root against the last 2 seasons. You don’t need corsi or Jeremy White’s cheerleading to know that they are better. However, this is kind of the riddle trapped into an enigma when it comes to the proper way to judge a team. The Sabres team from the last 2 years weren’t rebuilding, they were tanking. They WANTED to be terrible. 5 of their top 6 leading scorers on this team were either not on the team last year or played less than 10 games (Reinhart being the one who played less than 10 games and Risto being the only legit holdover). Of course they were going to be better at the end of the day than last year’s team. However, I think the proper measuring stick is to compare them to other NHL teams. I just don’t think last year’s team is the proper measuring stick because of their goal of being bad. Now, if this was next year, you could totally make the case for comparing the 2017 Sabres to this team because the majority of the players will be here next year.
Chris: That’s a fair statement. What I’m not sure about is where you stand. Are you saying you’re not sure if they’re on the right track?
Joe: I cant give a snap judgement because there’s a long road ahead. You can easily sit here and lay out the positives. The young guys who we wanted to do well have done so. Risto/Eichel/ROR/Reinhart have exceeded expectations and because of their age, there’s an assumption that they will get better.
Eichel/Risto/ROR/Reinhart have accounted for 53 of the Sabres 113 goals.
On the flip side, I feel this team doesn’t have much depth and after Risto, I’m not exactly enamored with the blueline. I know Pysck is a corsi monster, but he’s still only played 70 games for his NHL career. I need to see more games out of him before I say he’s a top 3 blue liner.
Of all NHL defensmen that have played at least 45 games, Cody Franson has the best Corsi percentage for Sabres D-men and is ranked 66th overall for D-men.
Plus, the Sabres can’t score goals right now. The Sabres don’t have a player ranked in the top 30 in goals or in the top 45 in assists. They have 29 games this year where they have scored 2 or fewer goals which is the 2nd most in the NHL. Also, it doesn’t help when the team that was tanking with the Sabres last year (Arizona) is doing well in the standings.
I’ll admit, I thought they were going to be better than this. I thought they were going to score a ton of goals this year and were going to be 20-25 points better than last year. I was wrong. So, that’s why I check myself in stating they are on the right track because I was totally wrong prior to the season. So, I may just be lowering expectations because they weren’t meant for me.
Chris: It’s funny you mention depth because it was a conversation I had on Twitter with a few people the other day. While their depth is certainly suspect I’m not sure that should be a surprise to anyone. They shaved a little off the blueline by trading Zadorov but otherwise I think we probably should’ve seen this coming. It doesn’t help that the AHL vets they signed haven’t performed to the levels they have in years past. However, if you’re worried about the play of the AHL vets at the NHL level something has obviously gone wrong.
The Sabres are among the league leaders in man games lost, they’ve had three or four key forwards massively underperform and yet, they’re only 10 points shy of their point total from last year with 32 games to play. If they play .500 hockey down the stretch they’ll obliterate that point total. Perhaps the issue is that they were *so* bad the last two years that even a significant improvement in total wins and points won’t be enough to lift them from the cellar. What I’m saying is that they’re in a much better spot than their current spot in the standings indicates. Even with the poor play of Moulson, Ennis and Girgensons (the last week notwithstanding) factored in.
Joe: Yeah, I do believe they are better than the standings indicate. Of their 24 losses, 14 of them have come by a goal and they are 22nd in team corsi. I think a problem could be that after the tank went down, everyone’s expectations were all over the place. I mean, for some people, getting McEichel was like getting a Stanley Cup. While others couldn’t bare the thought of tanking and always had an ax to grind because of the team’s methods. If you look at the standings after thinking McEichel=a Stanley cup and see where they are now, you might be disappointed. If you were someone who hated the tank and heard the outcry that this was going to change everything overnight from the lunatic fringe, you are probably relishing in this moment.
However, you and I aren’t extremists and are level-headed. As a fan who has been through rebuilds with the Bills, it basically should be about the younger players because they are the ones who are going to be here in 5 years. NOT the guys who are on the 3rd and 4th lines. As it stands now, the young kids are doing their thing. However, we’ve been wrong before about thinking this or that young player was going to be the 2nd coming. I still remember Tyler Ennis being touted as a #1 center and Marcus Foligno being the answer to our power forward position. I’ll always remember the hoopla for Grigomania when he got drafted.
Overall, maybe the best comparison is to look at what teams like the Pens/Hawks/Tampa/Islanders did the first year after they got Kane/Crosby/Stamkos/Taveres. That to me is the better barometer since they were full rebuilds.
Chris: It absolutely is. I mean, Steven Stamkos’s rookie season was hardly a rosy affair and the Bolts wound up back in the lottery. The Penguins were terrible in Crosby’s rookie season and led to the drafting of Jordan Staal. He also happened to be the final top-pick in Pittsburgh’s run at the top of the draft table from 04-06.
The keys, for me are as follows:
– O’Reilly has proven that he’s a dynamic player capable of anchoring a top-six line for the long term. Eichel and Reinhart have both been tremendous in their first full NHL seasons indicating that the forward core is in very, very good shape.
– Ristolainen (12th in goals for D-man) is obviously the real deal and the continued growth of Pysyk should give optimism moving forward. If Bogosian fully recaptures the form he was beginning to find before the break the blueline may be in good shape.
– The jury is still out on Lehner but Ullmark, Petersen and Kasdorf are all playing well at their respective levels, meaning there’s talent down the pipeline in goal.
– Murray has 11 picks and a handful of UFAs to turn into more assets this spring and summer. Overall, the process is working. If/when the Sabres wind up in the top-five of the draft and pick Patrick Laine or Matthew Tkachuk, their depth at forward immediately goes from just okay to quite good in an instant.
But to your point, the buy-in needs to be realistic. Playoffs shouldn’t have been a hope for any fan this season just as it was silly to expect Eichel to go 30-60-90 as a rookie.
Joe: I agree with you when it comes to what we should be positive about. I just hope they keep getting better and they have to add a few more pieces. My question to you is when do we as level-headed fans start asking about when will this team will get back to the playoffs? Its been a long time when you consider that the Sabres right now have the 3rd longest drought in the NHL since their last playoff appearance (EDM/CAR lead the pack). I feel this year is a bit of a mulligan for them because its a rebuild year, but as you said, they got a lot of picks that I can hope can be traded for guys who can play now. For next year, they better be competing for a playoff spot. The rebuilds we already mentioned had playoff years not too far into the future after that 1st year.
Chris: I entered the year thinking that finishing 10th overall in the conference would be kind of a best case scenario in terms of progress. They’d be on the edge of the wild card conversation but still with ground to make up in terms of the big picture. I’m not sure I could’ve expected them to still be in the basement, but I certainly didn’t think playoffs were a realistic possibility. However, I think that should definitely be the case next year. A push for a wild card spot should be in the cards and if they’re unable to push to that level some tough questions will need to be asked.
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