Cincinnati takes on Miami (Oh.) this Saturday, renewing their annual rivalry as they play for the Victory Bell. This will be the 119th game played in the series, and as many may not know, its the fifth-most played rivalry in college football history. Miami leads the series 59-52-7, but has not beaten UC since 2005.
Typically a rivalry game poses a different set of challenges than other games, and often we see an underdog rise to the occasion to take down their favored foe. These games can be especially tricky when preceding a highly anticipated match-up against a more formidable opponent, such as the one UC has next week against the Ohio State Buckeyes. However, all that being said, everything about this game is pointing towards the Victory Bell staying in Cincinnati for a ninth straight year.
The RedHawks are 0-3 on the season, suffering home losses to Marshall and Eastern Kentucky, and losing on the road at Michigan last week. Miami has really struggled to score, averaging just 15.7 points per game which ranks 120th in the NCAA. It has also run the ball poorly, ranking 121st with a 73 yards per game average.
While former Notre Dame quarterback Gunner Kiel seems to be on the path to success as a Bearcat, things have gone a little differently for Miami’s Andrew Hendrix, another former Irish signal caller. While Hendrix has racked up some yards in his first three games averaging 280.7 per game (41st in college football), he is completing just 48% of his passes and has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns (5). It doesn’t help that he has also been sacked 10 times either.
Defensively, the RedHawks have allowed 31 points per game and are giving up 176.3 yards per game on the ground. They have fared better against the pass, allowing 214.3 yards per game so far, but that could be because teams have had so much success running the ball against them.
With everything on paper from the statistics to the current spread (Cincinnati is a 28 point favorite) to the talent on the respective depth charts leaning towards the Bearcats as heavily as it does, I think it will bear out that way on the field as well. Expect Cincinnati to establish their running game early to open things up for Kiel and their talented receiving corps. A solid effort on the ground will also help UC control the clock to keep its defense fresh as fatigue was a big factor in Toledo’s third quarter charge last week. I also think the Bearcats’ defense will get after Hendrix early and often, racking up a few sacks and forcing him into a few bad decisions and turnovers in the process.
In short, Cincinnati will move to 2-0 this Saturday, avoiding the proverbial “trap game” loss and setting the stage for next week’s long-awaited trip to Columbus.
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