Bearcats Schedule Quirk: Helpful or Hurtful?

While the college football season kicks off tonight (AAC members Tulsa, Tulane and Temple are in action), Cincinnati won’t play its first game until September 12 when it takes on the Toledo Rockets.

That, by the way, makes UC the last major college football program to open its 2014 season. Most teams will have already played two games by the time the Bearcats take the field, and some will have three in the books—like fellow AAC member Houston, for example.

Head coach Tommy Tuberville was clear in both his dislike of this schedule quirk and who deserves the blame. Here are two quotes on the subject Tuberville gave to Cincinnati Enquirer reporter, Tom Groeschen:

“I don’t mind one open date but two is kind of ridiculous, to be honest with you. But it is what it is. … Somebody dropped the ball on our schedule. We had a couple problems with some of the guys that previously did the scheduling that just didn’t get the job done.”

The “guys” he referred to in that second quote are in reality one guy: former Cincinnati Athletic Director, Whit Babcock. Babcock left to take the same position at Virginia Tech, and gave the following response to Tuberville’s quote to the Enquirer in a recent phone interview:

“I’ll take whatever blame anybody wants to give. I can understand where coach Tuberville is coming from. I certainly know the schedule is not ideal, and I don’t have any issue with his comments.”

Regardless of who is to blame, as Tuberville said, UC’s schedule “is what it is.” So, will opening late and having two open dates at the beginning of their schedule positively or negatively affect the Bearcats? Luckily, I’ve got arguments for both.

Opening the season late with two open dates at the start will help the Bearcats because…

• They could use some extra practice time for Gunner Kiel to gel with his receivers. Kiel hasn’t played a snap of college football and hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since his senior year of high school in 2011. There are sure to be a few growing pains as he adjusts to the speed of the game and develops chemistry with his supporting cast of skill players. Why not let some of that happen in practice instead of during games that count?

• In theory, they should be well-rested and healthier than their early season opponents. Unfortunately, with football, injuries are less a matter of “if” and more a matter of “when,” “who” and “how.” Theoretically, the odds of injury and general fatigue being a factor in a game should increase with the number of games played. When the Toledo Rockets and Miami (OH) RedHawks come to town for UC’s first two games having played two more than the Bearcats already, pay attention to how healthy those two teams are coming in and if the Bearcats look fresher than them late in those games.

• They will have more 2014 game tape on their opponents than their opponents will on them. This factor really only matters in terms of the Ohio State game, in my opinion, but whatever advantage they can get against a team that talented helps. While the Buckeyes will only have tape on the Bearcats against two MAC schools, UC will get to see what OSU rolls out against a decent variety of opponents in Navy, Virginia Tech and Kent State. Also, the Bearcats can probably afford to hold back some of what their total offensive repertoire will include against Toledo and Miami (OH), but the Buckeyes are going to have to see what works early with J.T. Barrett replacing Braxton Miller and they should be challenged well by ACC staple Virginia Tech.

Opening the season late with two open dates at the start will hurt the Bearcats because…

• They could benefit from getting Kiel reps in meaningful games as soon as possible. As I said earlier, there is likely to be a learning curve for Kiel as he adjusts to the college game. He might be developing some solid chemistry with his receivers in practice and lighting it up in scrimmages, but things are a little different when the opponent has actually schemed against your weaknesses and is allowed to hit you. It would have been nice for Kiel to begin his career with a confidence-builder against Stony Brook on August 30, but former AD Babcock canceled that game to schedule the October 11 game against Miami (FL). If Kiel struggles against Toledo and/or Miami (OH) it could cause a season-long hangover, or worse—a season-long QB controversy and offensive instability.

• While they could be healthier and fresher than their early season opponents, they could be rusty and not yet in “football shape.” Anyone who watches football has heard the terms “football shape” and “midseason form,” and this could be a legitimate concern for the Bearcats. They could come out flat or look slow in their opener without any real game experience, and by the time they get to Columbus for their third game the Buckeyes will have already played three and had a bye week to rest.

• They likely won’t be able to move into the Top-25 rankings without playing. If UC’s goal is to win the AAC and go undefeated so they can crash the college football playoff party, starting late isn’t doing them any favors. This is a different system than the previous one in the BCS, but traditionally teams ranked highly to start the season and teams that lost early rather than late in the year had much better chances to be in the BCS bowl and national championship conversation. With the Bearcats being unranked to start the season, not playing in a “Power 5” conference and having their two best “signature win” opportunities coming fairly early in the year, they are already at a clear disadvantage to be one of the four playoff teams selected.