Beating the Spread: AAC Week 11

Yeah buddy! If you didn’t come back around after my 3-1 effort against the spread in Week 8, or after I did it again in Week 9, then you surely missed out on a glorious 4-1 showing in Week 10. That’s right ladies and gents, your boy has been HOT lately, going 10-3 ATS in the last three weeks to move my season total to 24-19-1. My thanks go out to Cincinnati, Tulsa, UConn and Houston for covering last week, and to ECU: way to ruin my shot at a perfect week.

I probably should quit while I’m ahead, but I owe it to you, the fans, to keep handing out these winners before Vegas puts the kibosh on this whole operation. So, I will go on to Week 11 riding my hottest streak of the season, and you can choose to come along or fade all of my picks in anticipation of a dud week.

Week 11 brings us three conference games and a matchup of UConn and Army that is interestingly being played in Yankee Stadium. And without further ado, here’s how you can beat the spread in the AAC this week.

Friday

Memphis (-7.5) @ Temple, 7:30 p.m. ET

Coming off an impressive victory at home over AAC newbie ECU, Temple is looking to make up a little ground in the conference standings yet again with a win over Memphis, one of the five teams tied for first. Last week I gave you all the reasons why the Owls impressive start was due to their weak competition early on, and I’m not sure I want to move off of that position just yet. ECU had been showing signs of “bottoming out” over the past few weeks, and on the road in Philly was finally that spot.

Now, obviously the Pirates are a good team and very easily could win the rest of their games, so it is still a good win for Temple. But the Owls did lose by 20-plus on the road at Houston and UCF the two weeks prior to that, so let’s just pump the brakes for a hot second.

I feel like I write this every week about Memphis, but this team is an all-around, solid college football team. The Tigers’ defense is led by Tank Jakes, an AAC defensive player of the year candidate, and ranks 15th in the country by allowing only 19.4 points per game.

Offensively the story for Memphis this season has been all about the improved play of quarterback Paxton Lynch. Lynch has raised his completion percentage from 58.2 to 64 percent from last season, and his yards per attempt has gone up 1.67 yards. Plus, his 10 passing TDs this season is already one better than his total from last season.

This is the biggest matchup in the conference this week as it is the only one that pits two teams with winning records against one another. I already mentioned Memphis’ defense, but Temple’s only allows 18.4 points per game and held ECU to 10 points last week. I took the Tigers to win this game outright in our expert picks this week, but give me the Owls and the 7.5 at home in what looks to be a close game throughout.

Saturday

SMU @ Tulsa (-14), Noon ET

This line is the ultimate evidence of how bad SMU has been this season. Tulsa has won one game this season (at home in double overtime against Tulane in week one) and ranks outside the top 100 in both points scored and allowed per game, and SMU ranks behind them in both categories. In fact, the Mustangs are dead last, 128th of 128 FBS teams, in both statistics.

I don’t want to spend too much time thinking about this given that these may be the two worst teams in college football, and I don’t want to give myself any longer to consider taking SMU and the points. Tulsa has at least shown some competency, and have the 18th-ranked passing attack based on yards per game in the FBS, so I’m going to eat the points and take the Golden Hurricane in this battle of futility.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM3SOt1dmoQ?list=UUCM89Zk2s49DxKXFQBv-tkg]

UConn (-4.5) @ Army, 3:30 p.m. ET

Speaking of the worst teams in college football, I seriously thought UConn was heading down that path this season, but after a closely contested loss at ECU and a huge win at home over UCF last week the Huskies are on the upswing. Army has also struggled its way to a 2-6 record this season, beating two MAC teams (Buffalo and Ball State) at home.

Something has to give in this matchup as UConn is the nation’s 7th-best defense against the run, allowing teams to gain only 97.92 yards per game and just 2.73 per attempt. Meanwhile, the Black Knights and their option offense are No. 6 in the FBS with 294.8 yards per game on the ground.

This game is going to be won or lost in the trenches, and I expect UConn to stifle Army’s running game and keep them behind the sticks and out of the endzone for much of the afternoon. The Huskies should win this game, and I think they can do it by more than 4.5.

Tulane @ Houston (-18), 3:30 p.m. ET

Houston is one of the hottest teams in the AAC right now having won three games in a row against Memphis, Temple and USF by a combined score of 86-37. They are playing incredible defense this season, ranking 5th in scoring and 14th in total defense in the FBS. Greg Ward, Jr. has steadied the Cougars offense, and given them the low-mistake, ball control play they need to win games with that defense.

The Green Wave, on the other hand, are struggling and fighting to not finish second to last to SMU in the AAC. Tulane is only scoring 18.1 points a game, 119th in the FBS, so the Houston defense is not a welcome sight for them. Tulane coach Curtis Johnson is starting seven freshmen right now, and after a mistake-riddled lost to Cincinnati at home last week, he summed up his feelings on that by saying, “The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores.” Ouch.

I am REALLY tempted to take Tulane and the 18 points here, and honestly I probably should, but Houston looks too good right now to do anything but roll the Green Wave at home here. It’s a lot of points to swallow, but I’m with Cougars in this one.

There you have it folks, those are my Week 11 picks against the spread in the AAC. Check back next week to see if I stayed scorching hot, and to find out what bets I like in Week 12’s #AACTION. Good luck to all!