Beating the Spread: AAC Week 13

Just when I started to get some momentum going with my picks against the spread, Week 11’s 1-3 record happened, and then Week 12 produced a 2-3 result. For those following along, my season-long record ATS is now 27-25-1 as my pursuit of mediocrity is staring down the barrel of the final three weeks of the season.

Week 13 presents us with a full slate of conference match-ups, with Temple being the odd man out on a bye. If you’re feeling brave and/or lucky, then this is the week for you because its all heavy favorites in the AAC. Cincinnati is the only team not favored by double digits in its game, and the other four lines are all 18 points or more.

I need a winning week after going a combined 3-6 in the last two, and of course I am blessed with these spreads. Sigh. Anyway, enough complaining, here’s how I think you can beat the spread in the AAC in Week 13.

SMU @ UCF (-28), Noon ET

It’s now at the point where I feel bad for SMU. Last week, the Mustangs were an 11-point underdog to USF, and they carried a 13-point lead into the 4th quarter. However, they ended up losing 14-13 on a fourth-down touchdown pass with four seconds left in the game. So heartbreaking.

And now SMU finds itself as a 28-point underdog on the road at UCF, with the Knights coming off a home beat-down of Tulsa. In that game, George O’Leary’s crew was favored by 20.5 and I recommended taking the Golden Hurricane and the points because UCF doesn’t typically win big. Well, the Knights cruised to a 24-point victory to prove me wrong. Such is life.

I’ll figure out what my records were ATS on a per team basis at the end of the season, but man, I feel like I can never get it right with SMU. Again, 28 points seems like A LOT for UCF to cover, but I can’t recommend betting on the Mustangs, especially after such a demoralizing loss. Eat all four of those touchdowns, and bet on UCF to cover comfortably at home.

Houston is coming off a bye, which two weeks ago it might have been caught looking forward to as they lost at home against Tulane after vaulting up the conference standings by beating Memphis, Temple and USF. I have used the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde analogy to describe the Cougars all year long, and it has proven to be a good one because this team is a weekly enigma at 5-4 both straight-up and ATS.

Although they only put up seven against UCF last week, the Golden Hurricane still averages 23.6 points per game on the season. The problem with counting on that number holding true is the fact that Houston ranks 9th in the country in scoring defense, holding its opponents to 17.7 ppg.

Coming off that Tulane loss and a bye week to let it stew, I think we will see the Dr. Jekyll version of the Cougars, and that’s not a good thing for Tulsa. Betting heavy favorites is usually a good way to lose, but I’m giving the points and taking Houston here.

This is partly due to its own success, but shockingly, ECU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games and it was favored in all of them. The Pirates are reeling a bit now as their downward trend started by close wins over sub-par USF and UConn teams led to back-to-back losses to Temple and Cincinnati.

Tulane on the other hand, followed up a surprising and impressive win on the road over Houston with an equally unsurprising and unimpressive 31-point loss at home against Memphis. The Green Wave have been highly unpredictable in losses this year as four of their seven have been by 24 points or more and the other three by just seven points each.

I’m not sure what the lines in these games have been, but interestingly Tulane is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with ECU. However, I think the Pirates are due for a bounce-back and they have played better at home than on the road this season. I’m taking the favorite to cover again as I think ECU racks up points on a Tulane defense giving up nearly 30 per game.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cNLyeFmCZE?list=UUBV9bFELPEbVZRdtWofBX2Q]

I have tried to talk myself into USF a lot this year, and I’m not sure why. The Bulls average margin of victory in their four wins is a measly 4.25 points. Oh, and who did they beat? Western Carolina, UConn, Tulsa and SMU. Yuck. I still can’t believe they only beat SMU by one on a last-second, fourth down touchdown… AT HOME. The Mustangs had lost EVERY game this season by double-digits too. Okay–USF rant, over.

In case any of you weren’t paying attention: Memphis is good. The Tigers are scoring nearly double the amount of points they allow on a per game basis, and find themselves at the top of the AAC standings with a 7-3 record just a year after finishing 3-9 and tying for last in the conference. Quarterback Paxton Lynch has gone from a 2013 liability to a 2014 strength as he has already thrown three more touchdowns and four less interceptions than last year, while also increasing his completion percentage from 58.2 to 64.4.

If I didn’t sell you on Memphis covering the 18.5 just yet, also note that the Tigers are 4-2 ATS in their last six when playing the Bulls. Another big spread, and another favorite I like this week.

Although it’s the closest line of the week, I think picking this game scares me the most. Cincinnati is coming off of a big, dramatic win over ECU in what had long been tabbed as its most important conference match-up this season. In addition, the Bearcats might be peaking ahead at the schedule to a road game against a tough Temple team. A Saturday night trip to Storrs, Connecticut could present a speed bump for the ‘Cats who are rolling with four straight wins.

While UConn only has two wins, this is a team that has played in several close games this season. The Huskies offense has struggle all season long, ranking 123rd in the FBS in scoring per game and 121st in total offense with a paltry 289 yards per game average.

Despite its overall poor numbers and reputation, Cincinnati’s defense has proven it can play well against bad offenses. While the Bearcats allowed 48 ppg to Ohio State, Memphis, Miami (FL) and ECU, they held SMU, USF and Tulane to 11.33 ppg.

I expect Cincinnati to continue its explosive offensive ways with a healthy Gunner Kiel playing quarterback, and to force a struggling Huskies offense to make a few mistakes. I’m laying the points again and taking the Bearcats.

There you have it, those are my Week 13 picks against the spread in the AAC. Hopefully these lines hold true because I went all-in on the favorites. Check back next week to see if that was a bold, winning move, or a stupid, self-destructive one. Enjoy the #AACTION and good luck to all!