Beating the Spread: AAC Week 14

Well, not a super impressive Week 13 for me, but it was a winning one as I cashed in on big victories by UCF, ECU and Cincinnati to go 3-2. Houston and Memphis predictably won against lesser competition, but both were unable to cover the lofty lines Vegas bestowed upon them.

With two weeks left in AAC regular season play, my record stands at 30-27-1 ATS. Still winning, but nothing to write home about. Week 14 looks to be another chalk full of lopsided match-ups in the American, as every favorite but Cincinnati is a double-digit one.

It should be another rough weekend picking winners ATS in the AAC, but time for me to get to work and finish the season strong. Here we go.

Friday

UCF (-12) @ USF, Noon ET

UCF is coming in hot off back-to-back demolitions of Tulsa and SMU after a disappointing road loss to UConn. The big wins over bad teams is encouraging to see for the Knights because they have played up or down to their competition on several occasions this year. The one negative from the SMU blowout is that Justin Holman continued to turn the ball over as he tossed two more interceptions to bring his season total to 12.

I mentioned in this column last week that I have tried to talk myself into USF not being as bad as they are on multiple occasions this season, and I have finally stopped doing that. Last week’s final score against Memphis isn’t indicative of the way the Tigers controlled it throughout, and the Bulls were down 18 points in the fourth quarter until they scored a touchdown with about a minute left.

My best guess is that this game will be ugly because UCF doesn’t play pretty and USF is slowly approaching SMU levels of offensive ineptitude. Much like Memphis did, I expect UCF to control this game and hopefully it won’t allow the Bulls any garbage time touchdowns. Lay the points and bet on the Knights to cover.

Houston (-22.5) @ SMU, Noon ET

I dread picking the game SMU is in every single week. The spread is always huge, the opponent should always win by that much or more but it freaks me out to give so many points, and I have to talk about the Mustangs again. So, I’ll keep this one short.

Houston’s defense currently ranks 13th in the FBS, allowing a measly 18.7 points per game, and SMU’s offense is dead last in the country, scoring an even measlier 9.7 a game. Guess what else? Yep, SMU’s defense gives up the most points per game in the FBS.

You don’t like it, I don’t like it, but we have to swallow the 22.5 and roll with the Cougars here.

ECU (-17.5) @ Tulsa, 8:30 p.m. ET

ECU got back on track last week with a dominant home win over Tulane as it racked up 497 total yards and scored 34 points, while the Pirates defense held the Green Wave offense to 325 yards and six points. Meanwhile, Tulsa lost its second game in a row on the road to Houston, but was able to cover the spread.

I spent a while trying to find something interesting to say about this game, but there isn’t much to talk up. ECU should control this one throughout as Tulsa allows 38.4 points per game, has given up over 30 points in each of its games except against SMU and even the Mustangs scored 28.

I expect Shane Carden and Justin Hardy to keep it rolling against the Golden Hurricane, and I don’t think Tulsa will keep pace with the Pirates on the scoreboard. I like ECU to cover the 17.5 in this game.

Saturday

Cincinnati (-7) @ Temple, Noon ET

Cincinnati is heading into Philly riding a five-game win streak in which its lowest offensive output was 34 points. The Bearcats have even looked solid on defense throughout the streak and just shut out UConn in Storrs. While five wins in a row is impressive, it is fair to ask if the ‘Cats have hit their stride, or if playing SMU, USF, Tulane and UConn in four of those five and getting ECU at home on a freezing cold night has more to do with the improvement. I think it’s certainly a bit of both, and finally having a healthy Gunner Kiel at the helm has been a huge plus.

Temple is coming off a much-needed bye as the Owls were reeling a bit after a last second field goal handed them a tough home loss to Memphis and a trip to Happy Valley sent them home pretty sad. Temple’s defense has been one of the best in the country all season long, ranking 15th in points (19.3) and 41st in total yards (364.4) per game. However, the Owls’ offense has been in decline for weeks now as it looks like P.J. Walker has taken a few steps back; Temple has only scored 10, 14, 20, 13 and 13 in its last five games.

So, what’s more likely to happen? Cincinnati’s high-octane offense comes close to its average of 37.3 points (17th best in the FBS), or Temple’s stonewall defense keeps the Bearcats out of the end zone? In today’s football, give me the offense all day. Cincinnati should get its sixth straight victory, and it should be by more than seven points. I’ll lay the points and take the ‘Cats.

UConn @ Memphis (-21), 4:00 p.m. ET

UConn just got simultaneously torched on defense and frozen on offense by Cincinnati last week as the Huskies gave up the most points they have in a game all season and were shut out for the first time. Also, that was the first time UConn has been held scoreless at home since 1978 against Navy. Meanwhile, Memphis, like Cincinnati, has won five straight games and just handled USF at home to keep its AAC title hopes alive and well.

How’s this for analysis: UConn is bad. Memphis is good. Memphis will win by a lot. You’re welcome, America.

To those of you who would actually like some numbers, UConn is 3-12-3 ATS in its last 18 games on the road. And I know giving the 21 is tough in this one, but Memphis has a Top-10 scoring defense and has an average margin of victory of 21.67 in its six conference wins this season. Roll with the Tigers and eat the points.

Well, there you have it boys and girls, those are my Week 13 picks to beat the spread in the AAC. Enjoy this week of #AACTION, and check back next week for my picks ATS in the final week of the AAC regular season. Good luck to all!