Beating the Spread: AAC Week 3

With two weeks of games already behind us and the last team in the AAC to play a game (Cincinnati) finally opening its season Friday, now seems like a great time to introduce this weekly column. Each week I will take a look at the betting lines on each game an AAC team is playing in and make my picks while hopefully handing out some invaluable insight. This will be posted each week before the first game a conference team plays in, so I will be using whatever spreads are currently available. The lines are always changing leading up to each individual game time, so just keep that in mind if this is published on a Wednesday or Thursday and a line has drastically changed by a Saturday kickoff.

Okay, sound good? Sweet. Here we go:

Thursday

Houston (+17.5) @ BYU (-17.5), 9:00 p.m. ET

Houston is a 17.5 point underdog on the road in the “battle of the Cougars” as they head out to Provo to take on BYU. This game opened with BYU favored by 14, so it looks like the early bettors were taking Houston. 17.5 is a pretty big number for BYU to cover, but they did cover a -15.5 on the road against AAC member UConn and are coming off of a 41-7 beat-down of Texas on the road. A big reason why many games are lost or won, turnovers will be even more key in this game. BYU enjoys a +2 turnover margin on the season while Houston has already given the ball away eight times in its two games.I like the Cougars to cover in this one… Uh, the ones from BYU, that is.

Friday

Toledo (+11) @ Cincinnati (-11), 7:00 p.m. ET

The much-anticipated debut of the Bearcats, and their newly named starting quarterback Gunner Kiel, is finally here. There are several factors that make this game a little tough to judge when picking based on the spread. For one, this is Cincinnati’s first game of the year and the first of Kiel’s college career so there could be a bit of rust that needs to be shaken off for the Cats. Additionally, UC is playing its home games in Paul Brown Stadium (home of the NFL’s Cincinnati Bengals) as their usual home, Nippert Stadium, undergoes renovations. Meanwhile, the Rockets have already played two games, including last week against an SEC opponent in Missouri, who they were able to put up 24 points on. However, Toledo lost its starting quarterback, Phillip Ely, to a torn ACL in that game, so sophomore Logan Woodside will be making just his second career start. All things considered, I think the Bearcats have too much offensive firepower and will be swarming on defense to get after Toledo’s young signal-caller. Cincinnati will cover the 11-point spread.

Saturday

UCF (+10) @ Missouri (-10), 12:00 p.m. ET

Oh boy, this one made me think HARD about taking the Knights to cover on the road because this looks to be a close game. But then I saw that UCF has only covered the spread in four of its last 10 games, and they only did it once as a road dog: at Louisville last season with a 38-35 win when the Cardinals were favored by 14 points. I think it will be a close game until Missouri pulls away just a bit in the 4th quarter. Eat the points and take the Tigers at home in this one.

Boise St. (-16) @ UConn (+16), 12:00 p.m. ET

I hate to pick against a team playing at home and getting more than two touchdowns against a team coming from the west coast to play an early game, BUT man has it looked rough for the Huskies so far in 2014. They got walloped by BYU at home in week one, and then barely held off FCS opponent Stony Brook last week. They were actually out-gained 300 to 223 in total yards by the Seawolves, and were only 4-of-16 on third down. The Broncos should cover the 16 points.

East Carolina (+11) @ Virginia Tech (-11), 12:00 p.m. ET

I hear you, I know I have picked the favorite in each game so far… Well, here you go–I like the Pirates as a road dog in this one. Virginia Tech has only covered the spread twice in its last seven times as a favorite (0-3 against the spread as a double-digit favorite), and East Carolina is 2-0 in its last two games as a double-digit underdog on the road. The Hokies looked impressive against a Braxton Miller-less Buckeyes team, but a big win like that on the road could mean a letdown at home (e.g., last season’s big win on the road at Miami (FL) 42-24, followed by a loss to Maryland at home as a 14-point favorite 27-24). I have a feeling Shane Carden and the Pirates are going to be a popular pick in this column this season. Take the Pirates and the points this week.

NC  State (-1.5) @ USF (+1.5), 3:30 p.m. ET

The Wolfpack haven’t played anyone of note yet and have only covered the spread twice in their last 10 games, losing six in a row against the spread. The Bulls are a much-improved team this season, and even though its only 1.5 points, take them and the points because I think USF wins this one outright at home.

Tulsa (0) @ FAU (0), 7:00 p.m. ET

In the only “pick ’em” game of the week, I think the Golden Hurricane will take down the Owls on the road. Both served as the whipping boy to top five teams last week in Oklahoma and Alabama, so I would expect a hard-fought battle for a W here.

SE Louisiana @ Tulane, 8:00 p.m. ET

There is no line in this one, so let’s move along people. Tulane should win handily.

That’s all for this week folks. I will track my record against the spread throughout the season, so look for next week’s column to see how I did and for my Week 4 picks. Good luck to all!