Beating the Spread: AAC Week 4

Week 3 was a mixed bag for yours truly as I nailed it with the Cincinnati, UCF, UConn, and ECU games (I won’t count Tulane since there wasn’t an official line on the game), but Houston’s odd game with BYU and the beat-downs taken by USF and Tulsa led me to a 4-3 record.

But hey, if you bet with me, you came out a winner last week–what more do you want from me?

This week we’ve got one conference game, a few cupcake matchups and a couple contests with Power5 teams on the slate. Without further ado, here’s how you can beat the spread in the AAC in Week 4.

Friday

UConn @ South Florida (-2), 8:00 p.m. ET

If I were actually betting money on an AAC game or two this week, I would avoid this one at all costs. These two teams have been ABYSMAL against the spread (ATS) lately, and it gets even worse when you consider their home and road splits. The Huskies are 2-9-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road and are 1-4 straight up in their last five games at USF. Meanwhile, the Bulls are … wait for it … a stunning 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 home games and 0-6 straight up in their last six against a conference opponent. Yuck. I guess I’ll give the points and take USF, but I’m doing it begrudgingly.

Saturday

Tulane @ Duke (-17), 12:30 p.m. ET

Duke has been on fire ATS lately, going 9-2-1 in its last 12 games including a 4-0-1 mark at home. Tulane actually has a winning record against the spread on the road in its last 15 games, going 9-6 over that stretch. The Blue Devils have been lighting up the scoreboard this season, averaging 42.3 points per game, with a healthy 262.7 average rushing yards per game. The Green Wave defense gives up an average of 185.3 on the ground, and is allowing its opponents to convert on nearly 50 percent of their third-down attempts. Seventeen is a big number to eat, but take Duke to cover in this one.

Delaware State @ Temple, 1 p.m. ET

There is no line in this one, and probably for good reason. Temple should win handily.

Texas A&M (-33.5) @ SMU, 3:30 p.m.

This one opened with A&M favored by 28, so obviously everyone has been in on the Aggies so far as the line has been bet up. SMU has gotten absolutely throttled in its first two games by a combined score of 88 to 6, and has lost its last four meetings with A&M by an average of 41 points. Again, this is another number that’s tough to swallow, but I think surprise Heisman candidate Kenny Hill and the Aggies roll the Mustangs. Give the points and ride with A&M here.

North Carolina @ East Carolina (-3), 3:30 p.m. ET

It looks like ECU’s victory at Virginia Tech impressed bettors because this line actually opened with UNC as a two-point favorite on the road. Last season, the Pirates went into Chapel Hill and took it to the Tar Heels, winning 55-31 as 12.5-point underdogs. ECU quarterback Shane Carden has been as good as advertised this season, leading the Pirates to an average of 374 passing yards per game (7th best in the country) while throwing seven touchdowns and just two interceptions. UNC is 0-2 ATS this season, and ECU is 3-0. I like the Pirates to move to 4-0 ATS, winning at home by a touchdown or more.

Bethune-Cookman @ Central Florida, 6:00 p.m. ET

No line, nothing to see here folks. UCF will get off the schneid and move to 1-2 on the season.

Miami-Ohio @ Cincinnati (-28), 7:00 p.m. ET

Although Miami hasn’t won a game against Cincinnati since 2005, the history of this rivalry is part of what makes college football so great. This will be the 119th meeting between the RedHawks and Bearcats–a series played for the “Victory Bell” that Miami leads 59-52-7. Cincinnati looked dominant offensively last week against Toledo, covering the 11-point spread by winning by 24. This line actually opened higher at -32, but its been bet down a bit which is typical for huge lines, especially in rivalry games. Since Miami’s last win in 2005, the closest the RedHawks have made any of the games is 14 points. Miami has been turnover-prone and is only averaging 15.7 points per game this season. I expect the Bearcats to continue lighting up the scoreboard while tightening up their defense this week. Cincinnati will cover the 28.

Middle Tennessee @ Memphis (-12), 7:00 p.m. ET

This is probably going to be a closer match-up than most people think. The line opened with Memphis as a 7.5-point favorite, and bettors jumped all over the Blue Raiders getting those points on the road. Memphis has looked much better this season, on offense and defense, and are 2-0 ATS. The Tigers currently rank in the top 50 in passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, points per game and points allowed per game. All that being said, Middle Tennessee can score–it averages 45 points a game, good for 14th best in all of college football this season. I like Memphis to win this game, but I think the Blue Raiders cover the spread.

UNLV @ Houston (-22), 8:00 p.m. ET

Houston has had an odd season thus far, looking very “Jekyll and Hyde” at times. Cougars quarterback John O’Korn looked pretty good last week on the road against a solid BYU defense as he threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns. UNLV has struggled this season, with its only win coming by one point at home against Northern Colorado. In their other two games the Rebels were crushed on the road at Arizona, 58-13, and lost at home by 14 to Northern Illinois. I think Houston wins this one, but I just have a feeling they will do enough “Hyde” stuff to fail to cover the spread. Take the Rebels and the 22 points on the road.