Beating the Spread: AAC Week 5

Well peeps, Week 4 was another winning but rather “meh” week for your boy picking against the spread in the AAC.

I went 4-3 again, making the correct picks in the USF, Tulane, SMU and ECU games, but Cincinnati cost me by looking ahead to Ohio State, Memphis by stymieing Middle Tennessee’s offense and Houston by running wild on UNLV. But, with the hard to predict non-conference slate wrapping up and it still being fairly early in the season, I am okay with being 8-6 ATS.

It’s an all-Saturday slate of games for the AAC this week, and definitely an interesting one with five teams facing Power 5 opponents and a conference tilt featuring Temple and UConn. Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears–it’s time to learn how to beat the spread in the AAC in Week 5.

Saturday

TCU (-32) @ SMU, Noon ET

Ah, the 94th meeting of the battle for the Iron Skillet… What, was the “Tin Can” already being played for? I digress.

SMU is in a world of hurt. The Mustangs have been outscored 146-12 in their first three games and lost their head coach and starting quarterback along the way. Here they face another spread greater than 30 points, and while I’m hesitant to eat that many points in a rivalry game, the Horned Frogs have won six of the last seven against SMU and just beat Minnesota 30-7.

Eat the 32 and take TCU because it could get ugly again in Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

Tulane @ Rutgers (-12), Noon ET

Rutgers has been moderately surprising it its inaugural Big Ten season, posting a 3-1 record thus far with the loss being by just three points to Penn State. Tulane, also playing in a new conference this season, has struggled a bit at 1-3. While the Scarlet Knights are winning, they aren’t exactly blowing anyone’s doors off and the Green Wave, except for the blowout loss at Duke last week, have only lost by seven points in their other two losses.

I think Rutgers will control the tempo of this game and win straight-up, but I will take Tulane and the 12 points.

USF @ No. 19 Wisconsin (-34), Noon ET

Wisconsin and its Heisman hopeful running back, Melvin Gordon, have looked pretty impressive this season with two blowout wins and a neutral site loss to No. 13 LSU by just four points. The Badgers are averaging 359.7 rushing yards per game (2nd in the nation,), and just two weeks ago the Bulls allowed 315 yards on the ground to North Carolina State. Another stat not favoring USF is Wisconsin’s 31 straight non-conference home wins, and when you add that to the Bulls 1-9 record in their last 10 on the road and an abysmal 39.2 completion percentage from their quarterbacks, you get a 34-point spread.

I never like to eat this many points, but I just can’t trust the USF offense to do much against the Badgers D. Take Wisconsin to cover here.

Temple (-6) @ UConn, 4:00 p.m. ET

The most important stat in this game is the fact that UConn ranks 122nd in scoring offense, averaging 16 points per game, and Temple is only allowing 12.67 points per game, good for 9th-best in the country. The Owls have been very good ATS recently, going 9-2 in their last 11 games, including a 5-0 record ATS in their last five road games. Inversely, the Huskies have gone 1-4 in their last five ATS, and are 5-9-1 ATS at home.

UConn is near the bottom in almost every offensive statistical category so far this year, and I doubt that changes in this one. Temple will cover in this week’s only conference match-up.

Cincinnati @ No. 22 Ohio State (-17), 6:00 p.m. ET

This is probably the most highly-anticipated game of any featuring an AAC team this season, and although ECU has made some noise with wins against Virginia Tech and North Carolina, an upset win by Cincinnati in Columbus would be a banner win for the conference. (Which, by the way, check out my article on how the Bearcats can beat the Buckeyes for more analysis of this weekend’s big interstate match-up.)

The spread opened with OSU as a 13-point favorite, which means the early money was big on the Buckeyes with the line increasing by four. Ohio State is always a much better team straight-up than they are ATS, evidenced by 22-3 record in their last 25 games. UC has posted a solid 10-5 record ATS in its last 15 road games, while OSU is just 2-4 ATS in its last six home games. I expect this game to be a shootout as it features two offenses with a variety of weapons that thrive on big plays, and two defenses that have been prone to allow them.

The Buckeyes are a good team, but the Bearcats are better than they showed last week against Miami (OH). Take Cincinnati and the points in this one.

Memphis @ No. 10 Ole Miss (-21), 7:30 p.m. ET

This is probably the toughest game to predict this week. Memphis has look worlds better this season than last, winning two of its first three with the loss being by just a touchdown on the road to a highly-touted UCLA team. Mississippi has worked its way into the AP top 10, but has gone largely untested, cruising to 3-0 with wins by more than 20 points against Boise State, Vanderbilt and LA-Lafayette. The Rebels offense can certainly chuck it all over the yard, as quarterback Bo Wallace leads the nation’s 8th-best passing attack averaging 364.7 yards per game.

However, Ole Miss has struggled to run the ball, racking up just 3.9 yards per attempt, and the Tigers have been solid against the run on defense this season. If the Rebels get stuck being one-dimensional on offense, this game could stay close, and given the facts that Ole Miss is coming off a bye and are probably already looking ahead to hosting No. 3 Alabama next Saturday, I think it does.

I like the Tigers and the 21 points in this trap game for the Rebels.

Texas State @ Tulsa (-3), 8:00 p.m. ET

Tulsa is coming off a much-needed bye after getting walloped twice in a row as it allowed Oklahoma and FAU to score 50 or more. Meanwhile, Texas State came away with a bit of a moral victory on the road against Illinois last week as they only lost by a touchdown as a 10.5 point road underdog.

The Bobcats are an efficient offensive team, ranking in the top-50 nationally in passing yards, rushing yards and points per game. As previously mentioned, the Golden Hurricane have really struggled since their thrilling double-overtime victory over Tulane in Week 1, but I think they can bounce-back here as a home favorite after their bye week. Tulsa will win by a touchdown or more to get back on track.

There you have it boys and girls, that’s how you can beat the spread in Week 5’s #AACTION. Don’t all go rushing to your bookies at once! Check back next week to see how my Week 5 picks went and how I think things will go down in Week 6. Good luck to all!

Arrow to top