Beating the Spread: AAC Week 6

After getting out to a slightly above average 8-6 record against the spread in the first two weeks of this column, I came crashing down to earth last week with a pitiful 2-4-1 record, moving my total to 10-10-1.

SMU’s big loss to TCU and Temple’s blowout of UConn were my only wins ATS, and Memphis was a push. I could blame my struggle on a brutal, and highly unpredictable Week 5 schedule that resulted in only one win for teams from the AAC, which came in a conference game mind you. But hey, I’ll just take my lumps and hope for better luck this week.

The Week 6 slate features just four games, three of which are conference match-ups, including a primetime Thursday-nighter on ESPN as UCF visits Houston. Fortunately, less games equals less writing and less losing (hopefully) for this guy, so here’s how you can beat the spread in Week 6 in the AAC.

Thursday

UCF @ Houston (-3), 7:00 p.m. ET

This feels like the toughest game to pick ATS this week, and that’s with a 41-point spread on the board. Both of these teams have been hard to get a solid read on so far this season. I once described the Cougars as the “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” team of the AAC, mainly because they do things like open the season with a 20-point home loss to UTSA, but then go on the road to BYU as a heavy underdog and lost a game by eight that they likely could have won. But alas, they pulled the Jekyll and Hyde routine on themselves within that game–the battle of the Cougars–and shot themselves in the foot a few too many times.

The Knights have been almost as equally unpredictable, as they lost to Penn State in Ireland on a last-second field goal and followed it up with a four-touchdown drubbing at the hands of Missouri, a team who was beaten by Indiana at home. Add those results to the fact that the reigning Fiesta Bowl champs lost a lot to graduation and the NFL draft last season (e.g., Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson).

In this match-up last season, UCF won a close game at home 19-14. Neither team has been impressive ATS lately, as Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last six home games and UCF is 2-4 in its last six games overall. I think this is a closely-contested, back and forth game, so I will take the Knights and the three points on the road.

Saturday

SMU @ East Carolina (-41), Noon ET

It is utterly unbelievable to me that a game between two teams in the AAC has a 41-point spread. But when you look at the numbers, SMU has been that bad and ECU has been that good. The Mustangs have been outscored 202 to 12 in four games this season, which is an average score of 50.5 to 3. Meanwhile, the Pirates are averaging 43.3 points per game and lit up the scoreboard against North Carolina in their last home game, throwing down 70 on the Tar Heels. ECU quarterback Shane Carden has been fantastic this year, and he has done it against teams infinitely more-talented than SMU.

I’m not even going to reference any of the ATS trends for these teams to make this pick–just eat the points, take the Pirates to cover and watch a more interesting game. You’ll thank me later.

Tulsa @ Colorado State (-14.5), 3:00 p.m. ET

Tulsa’s defense has been pretty bad this year. Like, 124th in the nation in scoring by giving up 42.5 points a game bad, and they have been giving up 505.8 yards of total offense per game. Meanwhile, CSU is currently averaging 492 yards per game, led by a passing attack ranked 18th in college football. The Rams already have a couple wins over Power 5 conference teams this season with a two-touchdown triumph over in-state rival Colorado at home and a three-point road win against Boston College. They are 3-1 on the year with their lone loss coming on the smurf turf to Boise State.

As for trends ATS, the Golden Hurricane are struggling and the Rams are doing pretty well for themselves. Tulsa is 1-4 ATS in its last five, and 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. As for CSU, it has gone 5-1 in its last six, and 5-2 in its last seven home games.

Tulsa has seemingly lost whatever it had found in its season-opening, double-overtime home win over Tulane. I think CSU will put together another impressive performance and win this one big. Take the Rams to cover here.

Memphis @ Cincinnati (-4), 7:00 p.m. ET

This line feels like an overreaction special to me. I know Memphis has put together a solid start to its season, but that’s based on a close loss to UCLA and the comparison to last year’s 3-9 team. Cincinnati is coming off a loss to Ohio State in which its defense gave up an inexplicable 710 yards of total offense. Combine the perception that the Tigers are much improved with a recent horrendous defensive performance from the Bearcats and you get just a four-point spread. In reality, I think Cincinnati is closer to a 10-point favorite playing at home in this one.

The Memphis defense has been solid this year, allowing just 20.8 points per game. Last week at Ole Miss they allowed just 24 points to an offense that averages the same 39 points a game that Cincinnati does, but the Tigers were abysmal on offense, totaling just 104 yards. To make matters worse, Memphis lost its leading rusher, running back Doroland Dorceus, for the season to an unspecified injury. The Tigers have relied heavily on their running game (187.8 ypg) and defense while their passing game has been inconsistent.

That brings us to Cincinnati, a super explosive offensive team with an extremely leaky defensive unit. Quarterback Gunner Kiel has been all the rage in Bearcats country, and has received some national hype along the way. As good as the Memphis D has been I don’t see how it can contain Cincinnati’s passing game, and even though UC’s defense is bad, I just can’t see the Tigers offense matching the ‘Cats score-for-score.

The ATS trends favor Memphis here as they are 3-0-1 to Cincinnati’s 1-2 on the season. However, I think the Bearcats are being underrated in this one based on the four-point spread. UC will cover the spread, beating Memphis by at least a touchdown at home.

And there you have it folks, my analysis-packed AAC week 6 picks ATS. Check back next week for my Week 7 advice, and to see if I got back to my winning ways. Good luck to all!