Beating the Spread: AAC Week 9

Baby steps people, baby steps.

A 3-1 showing against the spread for me last week (thanks a lot, Temple) brings my season total to 17-17-1, so if you are a fan of mediocrity it looks like you’ve come to the right place.

Like last week, Week 9 only has four games on the slate and they are all conference match-ups. The lines in this week’s games certainly show that a divide is forming between the upper and lower half teams in the conference as only the Temple and UCF game has a single-digit spread.

With such big numbers out there for the AAC’s best teams to cover this could be a rough betting week, but I’ll give it the ol’ college try!

Thursday

UConn @ ECU (-28), 7:00 p.m. ET

UConn ranks 127th of 128 FBS teams in scoring offense, averaging just 12.8 points per game. Meanwhile, ECU ranks 12th and averages 41 ppg. On paper this looks ugly, as Vegas is clearly stating with a four-touchdown spread.

However, the one team ranked behind the Huskies in scoring offense is SMU, and the Pirates allowed them to score 24 points despite being a heavy favorite at home. That was the Mustangs best offensive output of the season by far as it was the only time they have scored double-digit points this season.

Don’t get me wrong, UConn is pretty bad and I know it only managed to score three points against Tulane last week, but 28 points is a lot to cover for any team. I think ECU will win, and win big, so the game flow will probably allow a few garbage time scores for the Huskies. The Pirates will easily control this one, but I’m going to take the 28 points and UConn to cover the spread.

Friday

USF @ Cincinnati (-10.5), 7:00 p.m. ET

This game is by far the toughest to read this week. Cincinnati is coming off an impressive but expected 41-3 victory over SMU after allowing insane amounts of yardage the three weeks prior. USF beat Tulsa last week by eight while only being favored by 1.5, and the two games before that it hung tougher than anyone thought against good Wisconsin and ECU teams.

It is more likely that SMU’s offensive ineptitude was the key to the Bearcats holding it to just three points than a defensive turnaround from UC. The good news for Cincinnati is that the Bulls have been pretty unimpressive on offense as well this year as they rank outside the Top 100 in passing yards, rushing yards and points per game. The Bearcats should also be able to take advantage of a USF defense that allows 29 ppg and just gave up 30 to Tulsa last week.

The Bulls are certainly a team on the rise in the AAC, and are not one to look past, especially when you have as shaky a defense as Cincinnati. That said, the combination of a lackluster offense and a pass defense that allows opponents to complete 65.6 percent of their passes and average 11.3 yards per completion, likely spells doom against a Gunner Kiel led offense that makes a lot of explosive plays through the air.

This could turn out to be closer than I think, but I will eat the points and take the Bearcats.

Saturday

Memphis (-23) @ SMU, Noon

I don’t want to do too much analysis on this one, because honestly SMU has been that bad so there isn’t much to say. Memphis is coming off of a bye, and is bringing an offense and defense both ranked in the Top 50 in the country. The Mustangs’ offense has been so awful that they only managed three points at home against Cincinnati’s swiss cheese D last week.

The Tigers should roll in this one, and my only fear of them not covering the spread is if they choose to run the ball all game and only end up winning by three touchdowns. Either way, the only option here is to eat the points and take Memphis to cover.

Temple @ UCF (-7), 5:00 p.m.

This game has all the makings of a defensive struggle as Temple comes in allowing just 17.2 ppg and UCF only 20. The one caveat that comes with that number for the Owls is that they posted it against a fairly easy schedule before giving up 31 points to their first real test in Houston. UCF on the other hand has already been battle-tested by playing Penn State, Missouri, Houston and BYU.

Working in Temple’s favor is that UCF isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. The Knights are only scoring 23.8 ppg, and they rank 120th in total offense. Quarterback Justin Holman only completed 52.9 percent of his passes for just 113 yards and two interceptions last week against Tulane.

It still remains to be seen if Temple is actually a good team or benefited from playing an easy early season schedule. With that said, UCF has been winning close games for the last year and half, and is only 3-3 ATS this season and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games. Meanwhile, Temple is 10-4 in its last 14 games ATS including a 6-1 record ATS in its last seven road tilts.

I think the Knights win this one straight up, but I feel like it will be close so I’m going to take the Owls and the points here.