Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Preview

BYU Cougars (9-3)

Most impressive victory: 27-24 vs Utah State (Sept 30)

Worst loss: 54-10 vs Utah (Sept 17)

Notable alumni: Danny Ainge, Brian Billick, Ty Detmer, Aaron Eckhart, Jimmer Fredette, Jon Heder, Mike Leach, Jim McMahon, Andy Reid, Steve Young, Kyle Whittingham

BYU made the decision to travel the road less traveled and set out on their own as an independent this year. On paper their 9-3 record looks pretty impressive but if you look a little closer it was more of a function of their schedule. BYU’s losses came against Texas, Utah and TCU. Those teams have combined (as of this column) to go 26-12 and win 68% of their games. BYU’s 9 wins came against opponents that finished the season with a record of 36-74 for a winning percentage of just 32%. The only team BYU beat with a winning record was Utah State, as they finished 7-6.

BYU runs a balanced offense as they throw the ball around 52% of the time. In their three losses the Cougars running game has been all but shut down (64 yards per game). Another trend in their three losses in inability to convert third downs as they converted 16% less in their three losses than in their nine victories. 

With Jake Heaps transferring, Riley Nelson is the man at QB and he is coming off of his best game of the season at Hawai’i (25 of 37 for 363, 3 TD and 0 INT). BYU is going to need for him to be consistent and they are going to need the RB tandem of Michael Alisa and JJ Di Luigi to be difference makers in this one.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4, 7-1 in Conference USA)

Most impressive victory: 38-7 vs SMU (Oct 29th)

Worst loss: 48-16 vs Houston (Nov 25th)

Notable alumni: Gus Frerotte, Steve Largent, Nancy Lopez, Lovie Smith

How many four loss teams out there can claim that their only losses have come against teams that were ranked in the Top 10 at the time of their loss? Tulsa is the only one that I know of as they have lost to Oklahoma (#1 at the time), Oklahoma State (#8), Boise State (#4) and Houston (#8). Even though they have played a really tough schedule, it’s not like Tulsa has beaten a who’s who of college football so they are kind of in the same boat as BYU. Tulsa’s best two victories are against Marshall and SMU, neither of which is as good as BYU.

For Tulsa, this is QB G.J. Kinne’s last rodeo so look for him to try and pull out all the stops. Kinne has taken a step back from last year as he’s thrown for about 40 less yards per game, has 6 less TDs, 2 more INTs and he’s ran for about 150 less yards. That’s not all Kinne as the offense hasn’t been quite as good this year and he lost his top three targets off of last years team.

The Pick

Kevin: Looking at common opponents in this one does no good as they both beat George O’Leary’s UCF team 24-17. I think this will come down to Tulsa’s inability to stop the BYU rushing attack. Tulsa has two 800 yard rushers of their own and BYU has to remember the issues they had with stopping Utah on the ground. You can sit down and try to analyze games like this all you want but sometimes it just comes down to intangibles and which team wants to be at the bowl more. I don’t know the answer to that one but I just find myself leaning to BYU on this one.

BYU 31 Tulsa 24